Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Manchester, IN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

A cold front currently positioned over Wisconsin and Illinois will swing eastward and through the local forecast area this evening. Ahead of this front, strong to severe storms will become possible this afternoon and evening. The region is well into the warm sector with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moisture combined with daytime heating supports SBCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, especially east of the I-69 corridor where cloud cover has been minimal today. Destabilization is beginning to occur with cumulus development evident on satellite. The best chances for strong to severe storms will be 3-9 PM EDT today. The greatest risk area will be along and south of US-24, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place. Shear is still expected to be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, but it will be better than the past few days at 20 to 30 kts. With weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. Given DCAPE over 1000 J/kg this afternoon and evening and steep low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, damaging winds will be the main threat today.
Confidence in isolated tornado chances is decreasing due to current low level SRH less than 150 m2/s2, and forecast to decrease today. If one were to develop, the potential is still greatest in NW Ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up and destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving in from west to east. With PWATs now around 1.5-1.6", even if storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr.

After the passage of the cold front, the second half of the workweek will be much cooler with highs only in the 60s through Friday. Rain showers will likely be continuing southeast of US-24 on Wednesday morning before drier air moves in. The next chance for rain will then be on Friday afternoon in association with a shortwave coming up from the southwest. We could get a bit of a break on Saturday before a stronger upper trough moves across the region on Sunday.
Unsettled weather will also be possible on Memorial Day, especially south of US-30, but model agreement is poor so there is low confidence in forecast specifics.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of this TAF period. A few light sprinkles possible this morning before shortwave ridging pushes into the region. Northerly winds with gusts up to 20 kts possible after 17z Wed.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.