Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Greenwich, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:04PM Monday January 25, 2021 4:12 PM EST (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 341 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Snow and sleet likely in the morning, then periods of snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Periods of snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 341 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pres approaches from the west tonight, then passes south of the waters late Tue and Tue night. A trough of low pressure will linger nearby for Wednesday and Wednesday night. A coastal storm develops and passes fairly well to the south late Wednesday night through Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Greenwich, CT
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location: 41.01, -73.57     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 252043 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 343 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure passing to the south will bring a wintry mix to the area on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure will linger nearby for Wednesday and Wednesday night. A coastal storm develops and passes fairly well south of the area late Wednesday night through Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday. Another low pressure system will then approach from the west and southwest late Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Water vapor shows subtropical Pacific moisture streaming newd towards the cwa. This will produce increasing high clouds tngt. The cloud cover may be enough to keep temps from completely bottoming out as the MAV and MET guidance suggest. For this reason, the fcst follows the NBM for temps.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Theta-E ridge slowly builds into the region on Tue. While there could be some pcpn developing during the mrng, the best chances and steadiest pcpn will come in the aftn and eve as the jet begin to support upr lvl divergence. Low pres will eventually develop off of the Delmarva by early Tue eve, keeping the warm front s of the cwa. The ely flow at the sfc induced by the pres field will attempt to warm the bl, but this is likely only to have a strong enough influence across LI and perhaps portions of NYC and coastal CT. This means there is a significant likelihood that temps across most of the fcst area do not get abv freezing thru Tue ngt.

As the pcpn starts, mainly snow, mixed with sleet, is expected across the entire region. Both the NAM and GFS bufr soundings show the temp profile hovering right around 0C at times, suggesting that bursts of steadier pcpn would fall as snow, with lighter pcpn sleet or a sleet/snow mix. The warm air punch is strongest aft 18Z, so this will help with heavier pcpn rates but also increase the chances for mixing.

After 18Z, there will likely be enough warm air aloft to allow for some fzra to mix in, especially during periods of weak lift. Across LI and perhaps some other areas close to the coast, the bl may be warm enough to preclude any fzra threat.

As the pcpn lightens Tue ngt, it may be difficult to introduce ice due to the lack of deep lift. Therefore the light residual pcpn may fall as -fzra or fzdz at times where sfc temps remain blw freezing.

As a result, a winter wx advy has been issued for all but most of LI. The advy runs to midnight Wed for NYC and adjacent areas in NJ, and until Wed mrng for CT and the Hudson Valley. The chances for freezing rain were the main driver behind the issuance of an advy, as most, if not all, areas are expected to remain blw snow and sleet criteria.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A seasonably cold weather pattern will continue for the long term period. To begin the period a weakening block across Northern Hudson Bay in Canada should prevent any major storms from cutting well west of our area and up into the Lakes. Instead this should force storm systems more west to east and mainly underneath. With the lack of any persistent Western North American ridging the source region of cold air will not be true arctic in nature, but towards more typical Canadian CP type air mass (more in the way of modified arctic air) for the tail end of January. Underneath the block an active Pacific branch will continue to send shortwaves quickly from west to east. Two shortwaves are of interest. The first one will eject quickly east-northeast with a trailing surface trough, and the second one will lead to cyclogenesis along the lower Mid Atlantic and Southeast coast early in the period for later Wednesday night and Thursday. This second system is progged to pass by south of the region and not have impacts on the area. Its predecessor though for Wednesday will likely leave an norlun type trough in its wake which will lead to some very light and intermittent precip during the day, and possibly into a portion of the evening. Precip amounts should be negligible for most of Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

By Wednesday night into Thursday cyclogenesis takes place over the Atlantic waters to our south, then east. At the same time strong high pressure will begin building south and east from the southern Canadian prairies. This will result in a strong pressure gradient developing. A stretch of windy conditions is thus anticipated for Thursday through Friday. As high pressure builds over the region to begin the weekend the winds will relax for Saturday and Saturday night. This will be one of the colder 2 day periods of the winter thus far. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will average several degrees below average, potentially around 10 degrees below average.

Clouds will increase on Sunday in advance of another Pacific shortwave approaching from the west. This far out there is good general agreement on track and eventually redevelopment along and off the coast into early Monday. Precip chances will increase late Sunday and Sunday night with mainly snow as the ptype. The mid levels may warm enough for a transition to a mix, or perhaps some rain along coastal sections. These details remain uncertain this far out. The system should be progressive enough, that it should progress northeast and way from the area towards Monday night. The global forecast guidance consensus is suggesting that this system will have to be watched for perhaps some winter weather impacts, but there is low confidence and high uncertainty with respect to intensity and precip type for the longevity / duration of the potential event.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure weakens over the area tonight as low pressure approaches from the southwest.

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning for most of the area. A wintry mix will move into the NYC metro terminals after 15Z, with a PROB30 of the wintry mix moving in between 13Z and 15Z along with MVFR conditions. Precipitation will be light with little restrictions to visibility at the onset. Visibilities and ceilings gradually lower after 15Z to MVFR and possibly IFR conditions by afternoon.

NW winds generally less than 10 kt shift to N/NE into this evening and remain less than 10 kt.

Around an inch of snow is expected for KJFK, KLGA, KISP, and KEWR.

1"-2" of snow is expected for most other terminals.

2"-3" of snow is expected for KSWF.

A few hundredths of an inch of ice are possible for KHPN and KSWF. A trace of ice is possible for the NYC metro terminals and KBDR.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments are expected through tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday Afternoon. Becoming MVFR/IFR in developing light snow/sleet/freezing rain mix. The wintry mix may change to rain for the coastal terminals in the evening. NE gusts near 20 kt at the coastal terminals. Gusts diminish at night. Wednesday. Chance of MVFR/IFR in light mixed precipitation changing to all rain for most terminals. Thursday. Likely VFR with a low chance of rain and snow. NE-N winds 10-20G20-30kts. Friday. VFR. NW 10-20G20-30kt, strongest at the coastal terminals. Saturday. VFR. NW 10-15kt

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas are generally expected to remain blw sca lvls thru Tue ngt. An ocnl 25kt wind gust is possible on the ocean late Tue and Tue ngt.

Sub SCA conditions will take place on Wednesday with gusts around 15 to 20 kts on the ocean zones on a N-NW wind. As low pressure intensifies late Wednesday night into Thursday morning winds and seas will begin to ramp up, with SCA conditions likely for the ocean Wednesday night, and the remainder of the waters into Thursday. Gales will become increasingly likely on the ocean waters by Thursday night and into Friday, with potential gales for some of the eastern near shore waters. Sub SCA conditions should return towards the second half of Saturday from west to east as high pressure begins to settle north of the waters for later Saturday and Saturday night.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ067>071. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ002-004-103-104. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for NJZ006-105>108. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMC/JE NEAR TERM . JMC SHORT TERM . JMC LONG TERM . JE AVIATION . MW MARINE . JMC/JE HYDROLOGY . JMC/JE


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 12 mi57 min NW 9.7 G 14 36°F 17°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 17 mi54 min NE 6 G 8.9 35°F 1019.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 24 mi54 min NNW 8 G 12 35°F 39°F1017.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi54 min 38°F 40°F1018.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 6 38°F 1018.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi54 min 38°F 39°F1018.3 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 6
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 40 mi54 min NNW 8 G 14 37°F 37°F1018.7 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi54 min W 8 G 9.9 36°F 1019.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi32 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY9 mi16 minNW 710.00 miFair32°F12°F43%1018.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY21 mi19 minNNW 810.00 miFair36°F13°F39%1018.4 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi21 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F13°F36%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHPN

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Stamford, Connecticut (2)
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Stamford
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:30 AM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:44 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:35 AM EST     7.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:09 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM EST     6.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.81.7111.83.24.86.27.17.26.45.13.62.10.90.30.61.73.24.75.96.46.15.1

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:00 AM EST     0.83 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:44 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:03 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:18 AM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:23 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:25 PM EST     0.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:44 PM EST     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.10.60.80.60.20-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.40.80.80.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.