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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 953 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 301442 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 942 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Mild southwest flow is expected today and tonight ahead of a low pressure and cold front that will impact the region Friday into Saturday. The next area of low pressure is expected to move northeast through the region Sunday and Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Only made minor changes to hourly temperatures to reflect current conditions.

Previous Discussion...
From the deep freeze to high temperatures running a good 5 to 8 degrees above average today, ranging from the upper 40s in Northwest PA to the low to mid 50s west of I-77. Leaned towards the warmer side of guidance with temperatures running warmer guidance last night into early this morning followed by sunshine and southwest winds today. South-southwest winds will be gusty today, especially during the afternoon when gusts of 25-35 MPH are expected. There will be some high cloud cover filtering the sun today, call it partly cloudy overall.

Low pressure will lift out of the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Weak low to mid-level isentropic lift will begin ahead of the system tonight. This will offer light shower chances as low-level moisture starts returning, particularly across Northwest and North Central Ohio. Clouds will be on the increase areawide. The low pressure's warm conveyor belt will work east across the region late tonight through early Friday afternoon. The sharp increase in moisture and moisture advection associated with this will lead to greater potential for steady and more moderate rain as it works across our area and undergoes stronger isentropic lift into coupled upper jet streaks. Most areas can expect several hours of steadier and more moderate rain from west to east before a dry slot moves in from the southwest Friday afternoon and evening, causing the rain to become much lighter and intermittent. Dry slots are not usually warm and sunny features in our region in December, so expect plenty of lower clouds and some sprinkles to continue even as the steadier rain departs. Forecast rain amounts through Friday generally range from 0.25 to 0.50", with lighter amounts of 0.10-0.25" across our southeastern forecast area including Mansfield, Akron/Canton and Youngstown. These areas will likely see the shortest duration of steadier rain. Temperatures tonight will bottom out between the upper 30s and mid 40s in the evening and hold nearly steady through the night. With steady rain and no surface warm air advection on Friday am not expecting much temperature rise. Lowered highs a bit for Friday, keeping most of the area in the low to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Friday night will start with a stationary front over Lake Erie and a low pressure system to the west of the region over Illinois and Indiana. The low will move northeast along the front through Saturday. Ahead of the low, there will be a lull in precipitation on Friday evening with a dry slot developing across the region.
However, as the low curls northeast into the region, expect precipitation chances to increase late Friday night as the dry slot fills in and have increasing PoPs early in the period. The low will be quick to exit on Saturday and the fetch behind the system shouldn't lead to any meaningful lake effect/enhancement and have PoPs clearing out fairly quickly on Saturday. Another weak low will target the region on Sunday and have PoPs increasing once again with this system. There remains some uncertainty in the track and evolution with this low and have PoPs at a mix of chance/likely levels at this time. The eastern half of the area seems most likely to get precipitation as the system passes, but there will be greater confidence in this forecast period with time. Temperatures will be back to near/above normal values for the first weekend of December and in the 50s at times with the area in the warm sector of the passing lows.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low confidence forecast for early next week, but several chances for precipitation will exist with a general upper level trough over the eastern half of the country. The evolution of the forecast will largely hinge on a weak low pressure system that will move through the region on Sunday and how quick and how strong it will move through the region. In the end, best believe that some residual rain/snow/lake effect will exist behind the system for Monday and have some higher PoPs in NE OH/NW PA for now. Otherwise, have some fairly generic PoPs for potential passing systems with the need for refinement in the future. Temperatures through the period will be a touch below normal for the first full week of December.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
VFR conditions out of the gate this morning and through most of the TAF cycle. A rainy low pressure will bring widespread restrictions beginning very late tonight or Friday morning.
Ceilings below 5000 feet and light shower potential begin spreading in after 3 or 4z, with MVFR ceilings and/or visibility spreading in after 10z from the west with steadier rain. Only brought MVFR in late in the TAFs to TOL and ERI, along with CLE who has a 30 hour TAF. The next issuance will be able to provide a better idea of when restrictions begin arriving farther east.

South-southwest winds of 5 to 12 knots early this morning will increase to 12 to 18 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots later this morning into the afternoon. Gusts will subside some after 22z, but sustained winds will remain in the 10 to 15 knot range.

Outlook...Widespread non-VFR Friday and Friday night with rain and low clouds. IFR conditions likely for much of the area late Friday into Friday night. Scattered rain showers are possible again Sunday.

MARINE
A ridge southeast of the region will continue to promote a strong pressure gradient across the lake and will allow for increased southwest flow for today and into the first part of tonight. While winds at the moment are behaving, do expect an increase back toward 20 knots and will let the current Small Craft Advisory ride for areas east of the Lake Erie Islands. A front will approach and stall out near the lake tonight into Friday and winds will favor more of a southerly direction through the day Friday. A low pressure system will travel along this boundary and cross the lake on Saturday, shifting flow onshore with westerly to northwesterly flow by Saturday night. The flow should be weak enough to preclude any additional lake headlines but there could be some elevated waves over the eastern basin for Saturday afternoon. The forecast for early next week remains uncertain at this time but it best appears that a weak low pressure feature will approach or move northwest of the lake on Sunday and allow for offshore flow to return to the basin, eventually becoming focused into southwest flow for Sunday night into Monday. It is too early to tell if there will be the need for any marine headlines early next week, but with weak intensity lows moving through the region, do not believe any will be strong enough to merit a headline at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ144>149.

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