Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelter Island Heights, NY

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ Flood Watch remains in effect through midnight for NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT.

Convection appears be more outflow dominant over the past hour or so with a somewhat faster forward propagation east compared to earlier this afternoon. Several flash flood warnings have been issued with locally 4-6 inch rainfall totals in the hardest hit areas, and additional warnings could be issued, although less likely as we head through the next hour or two.

Seasonably warm and very muggy conditions will prevail through tonight, with low temps from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s invof NYC.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AM showers/tstms still possible Tue morning from NYC metro east with the front still in the vicinity, then a chance for late day showers/tstms from NYC north/west in the afternoon with a subtle sfc trough still in the vicinity and a mid level shortwave trough approaching. This activity should be on the weaker side with instability much more limited and wind fields aloft weak.

Of more concern will be increasing heat/humidity. High temps on Tue should reach the upper 80s/lower 90s from NYC north/west, with mid 80s elsewhere. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s this could yield heat index values of 95-99 for much of NE NJ and also parts of the lower Hudson Valley and the CT river valley. A short fused heat advisory might be needed for some or all of these areas.

Low temps Tue night should range once again from the upper 60s well inland, to the mid 70s in the NYC metro area and western Long Island.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Points:

* Increasing likelihood for heat indices to exceed 95F Wednesday through Friday across much of the region.

* Unsettled pattern with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms into late week.

The weakening frontal boundary lingers nearby into midweek as sprawling high pressure remains anchored well out in the Atlantic. SW flow helps usher in additional warm, moist air, and temperatures nudge upwards. While nothing remarkable for mid July, temperatures Wed through Fri likely top the upper 80s to lower 90s for most, and with dew pts progged at least into the upper 60s and lower 70s, heat indices should achieve mid to upper 90s, with the hottest locales exceeding 100F. Heat headlines will likely be needed as we move closer.

One caveat may be the unsettled pattern, with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon through late week with nearby frontal boundaries, though the overall severe risk appears low. However, deep layer moisture should keep PWATs near or above 2 inches, and with it, the potential for higher rainfall rates with any convective activity.

Conditions potentially begin to settle into at least the start of the weekend behind a cold fropa, as high pressure attempts to build in from the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak cold front remains over the region through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms expected to weaken over the next few hours as they slowly shift east, ending by the Tuesday morning push. Mainly VFR/MVFR for tonight, but some IFR in showers/tstms, as well as east of the city terminals. VFR for Tuesday outside any possible showers/tstms.

Winds variable in/near thunderstorms with gusts up to 30 kt still possible until approx 01-02z. Light and variable winds overnight, becoming S-SSW 5-10kt Tuesday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TSTM chances may end an hour or two before indicated in TAFs.
MVFR could prevail all night - low confidence in flight category forecast tonight/early Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night: VFR during the afternoon/evening with a chance of a shower/thunderstorm. MVFR or lower possible, especially east of NYC metro at night.

Wednesday-Friday: MVFR or lower in any afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SW flow increasing to over 15 kt could build seas close to 5 ft on the outer ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet Thu night.
Otherwise, afternoon/evening showers/tstms through the period could produce locally higher winds/seas at times.

HYDROLOGY
Flood Watch remains in effect until midnight for NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT.

Additional flash flood warnings could be issued this evening.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour still being observed early this evening, mainly from NYC and eastward.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The rip current risk is low through Tuesday, with a 10 kt or less onshore flow and weakening S-SE swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005-006-009.
NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...None.