Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelter Island, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
An energetic WNW flow regime will continue to prevail over the area through today. This results in breezy and seasonably cool conditions. Mainly clear conditions to start will give way to an increase in cloud cover into the afternoon. Temperatures for the afternoon will range mainly from the middle and upper 40s to around 50.

For tonight any evening clouds should give way to primarily clear skies. As high pressure builds from the southwest look for the pressure gradient to relax resulting in a noticeably lighter NW flow.
This will allow some radiational cooling in spots. The winds may stay up enough much of the night to preclude widespread frost, thus went with patchy wording and thus no frost advisories at this time with the growing season not yet officially over across the urban portions of the area. It will be a cold night with lows in the upper 20s across far northern portions of the area, to the 30s across the city and the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A dry and calm start to the weekend as high pressure settles directly overhead for Saturday morning. The high will then get offshore during the afternoon as cloud increase from west to east in advance of the next frontal system approaching from the west and southwest. Much, if not all of the region remains dry through the day with only a slight chance of late day rain showers across western most portions of the area. Temperatures will moderate some as it gets closer to normal with highs mainly in the lower and middle 50s, with perhaps a few upper 40s across northern most sections.

For Saturday evening rain should overspread the region quickly as this next system is progressive and fast moving. Showers will break out from west to east during the evening as the warm front works through. A break in shower activity is likely with the passage of the warm front. However, the cold front will quickly follow as it approaches an moves through early Sunday morning. Thus two pockets of rain are expected, one preceding the warm front, and another preceding and along the cold front.
Rainfall amounts will be on the order of a tenth or two, to up to a half inch.

The cold front should swing through my mid morning, maybe as late as the late morning across far eastern portions of the area. Clearing takes place quickly immediately behind the front as a W wind picks up and becomes rather gusty by midday and into the afternoon. A blustery and cool day with temperatures close to or perhaps a couple of degrees above normal. Winds are likely to gust to around 35 mph during the afternoon. A low level strat-cumulus cloud deck is likely to from for the afternoon resulting in sct to bkn cloud cover. The winds won't be as strong Sunday night, but will still gust at times with a pressure gradient remaining in place with another low up into the Labrador region of Canada and the region on the back side of the low. There could very well be snow showers and snow squalls to the NW with the low chance that a few snow showers or flurries could get into far NW portions of the area Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will be primarily in the 30s, and down at freezing for N and NW interior locations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key points:

* Breezy conditions are expected to begin the period on Monday, followed by the winds diminishing Monday night.

* Temperatures will be seasonably cool during the period.

Behind a cold frontal passage breezy conditions should continue through much of the day Monday as low pressure deepens to our north across SE Canada/Maritimes and high pressure builds to our west.

Winds should start diminishing Monday night as the high pressure moves closer to the area. Mean upper troughing will persist aloft through mid week. A shortwave and associated wave of low pressure continues to be modeled to pass well to our south Tuesday into Tuesday night. NBM indicates just a slight chance late Tuesday/Tuesday evening for extreme southern portions of the forecast area as the northern edge of the precipitation field grazes those areas. Though most areas, even those that have a slight chance for rain, will be mainly dry.

High pressure builds in at the surface from the west on Wednesday as upper level ridging from the Great Lakes region approaches. Model solutions differ with amplitude and actual location due to differences in the location of the low over the Canadian Maritimes.
A warm front may then approach the area during Thursday or Thursday night, bringing the next chance for precipitation. NBM was closely followed.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure exits north across the Canadian Maritimes today, while high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest.

VFR. A few sprinkles or flurries could make their way into the area late this afternoon/early evening, particularly for terminals in the lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut, but restrictions are not expected.

WNW-NW flow increases to 10-15kt with G20-25kt, then falling off quickly in the evening, veering more NW/NNW at night. Flow backs SW late Saturday morning into early afternoon as speeds remain at or under 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional through midday.

Timing of frequent gusts developing could be off 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday: VFR through the day, MVFR or lower at night w/ rain.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain to start, improving to VFR by the afternoon. W winds 10-15 G20-25kt late morning/afternoon.

Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE
Small craft conditions will linger into the afternoon on the ocean waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient relaxes tonight and into Saturday morning with sub advisory conditions returning to the ocean by late evening. With the high settling directly over the waters look for tranquil conditions to prevail Saturday with only 1 foot ocean seas. However, as high pressure pushes east and a frontal system starts to move through look for small craft conditions to develop quickly on the ocean, and for all non-ocean waters by Sunday morning. Behind a cold front a gusty WNW flow prevails with at least a period of gale force wind gusts looking likely across the ocean and perhaps all waters for a time Sunday afternoon and night. Small craft conditions are likely to extend into much of Monday as well, with sub advisory conditions likely to return some time on Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
There are hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.