Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holiday Pocono, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Primary low pressure will meander over the eastern Great Lakes before slowly tracking east into central New York state late tonight and into Friday morning. Meanwhile, the secondary low east of New Jersey will track north towards Cape Cod tonight, then both system will merge over Maine Friday afternoon. A large h5 low will expand much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and down into the Mid-Atlantic tonight through Friday, and the center of that low will slowly track east and will be over northern New England by Friday afternoon.

In terms of sensible weather, several shortwaves rotating around the base of the closed low will pass through the region through this evening. This will touch off occasional showers over the area into the first part of tonight. There may be enough instability for a thunderstorm or two over Delmarva early this evening, but not expecting severe weather.

Showers mostly taper off by midnight tonight, and then there looks to be a lull in shower activity through Friday morning. Conditions will be cloudy and muggy tonight, and patchy fog will develop as well. Lows tonight will be in the 40s to low 50s.

As low pressure intensifies to the northeast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the area, and northwest winds will increase to around 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph gusts in the afternoon. Conditions dry out, and skies may even become partly cloudy for most of the day. The next shortwave approaches Friday afternoon, touching off another round of showers, but PoPs will be capped at chance for most of the area, and as high as likely in the southern Poconos. Highs on Friday will get into the 60s to around 70.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The low pressure system responsible for our recent rain will track into New England on Friday and remain near Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. As a result, we'll only keep a small chance of showers going across our far NW zones as embedded short waves rotate through this area. We'll see a good amount of sun on Saturday across the region, especially south of the PA Turnpike and 195 in NJ. I feel like a broken record, but it will be breezy once again on Saturday in the W to NW flow.

More sun is expected on Sunday with a bit less wind. We could see more clouds on Monday, especially across our southern zones, but winds look light right now.

Temperatures will run below normal through the weekend. Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 60s, except 50s across the Southern Poconos and NW NJ. On Sunday, expect 60s to lower 70s. For those of you heading down the shore, even with surf temps in the upper 50s right now, you'll see similar temps compared to inland locales with the west winds. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The period begins with surface high pressure in play. And it looks like it will hang around through Monday and very likely into Tuesday.

As the high breaks down, a low pressure system will move out of the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and track offshore Wednesday into Thursday.
This will provide the region, especially our southern counties, with the next widespread shot of rain.

As for temperatures through the period, confidence is high that they'll remain at or below normal.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight.. MVFR/IFR CIGs /VSBYs in occasional SHRA through this evening, then MVFR/IFR CIGs /VSBYs in BR and stratus for the rest of the night. E winds around 10 kt, becoming NE this evening, then becoming LGT/VRB. Low confidence.

Friday...CIGs/VSBYs lift to VFR by 18Z. Scattered afternoon SHRA may result in brief sub-VFR conditions from 18Z to 00Z, but will not include i the TAF at this time. W winds 5 to 10 kt increase to 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt by 18Z. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Can't rule out MVFR conditions in a brief shower.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR early. MVFR or IFR later in the day with rain moving in.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the ocean waters through tonight. Although winds will diminish this evening, seas will remain elevated. Seas currently average 8 to 11 feet, and seas will diminish to 3 to 4 feet by daybreak. NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will diminish to 10 to 15 kt by this evening, then will turn W by daybreak. Once the SCA ends, conditions will remain just below SCA criteria through Friday.

On Friday, W winds will range from 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

VSBY restrictions in showers through tonight.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...There's a chance seas could touch 5 ft or winds gust to 25 kts, but confidence is on the lower side right now. So not issuing a SCA attm. But at the very least, conditions will be approaching SCA conditions.

Saturday night through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected at least the first half the day. Seas will ramp up later in the day in advance of our next system. A SCA may be needed later in the day on Tuesday, more so Tuesday evening.

Rip Currents...

Friday and Saturday...While winds will be offshore coming out of the west around 10-20 mph, an 8-10 second period, with multiple swell groups and breaking waves of 2-4 feet will result in a MODERATE risk for development of rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There were no major changes to the forecast with the afternoon update. Prolonged onshore, easterly flow will continue to result in elevated water levels. Even though astronomical tides aren't particularly high currently, this extra surge will be enough to result in minor tidal flooding with the afternoon/evening high tide today. At this point the primary areas of concern are along the immediate coast and nearest back bays from south of the Manasquan inlet to Fenwick Island and the shores of the Delaware Bay in Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware.

For other areas, tide levels could get close to minor flood thresholds, but based on the latest tide levels, expect them to stay below levels at which we see impacts.

Of note, guidance has been consistently too high with tide levels during this event.

Once we get to Friday, flow shifts to off shore and thus the risk for tidal flooding on subsequent high tide cycles decreases.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020- 022>027.
High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.