Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Akron, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Am not exactly rushing to give today's weather a gold star across the local area. We have been stuck in moist/chilly cyclonic flow on the backside of a closed/stacked low currently located near Buffalo, leading to breezy/rainy/cooler than average conditions. This closed low will slowly drift east tonight into Friday before becoming absorbed by developing low pressure over New England through the day Friday. Broader troughing aloft and low-level cyclonic flow will persist through Friday night across the local area, with high pressure not truly starting to build in until the start of the weekend.

Showers remain pretty widespread across the area late this afternoon, though should gradually become more confined to Northeast OH and Northwest PA as synoptic lift decreases tonight into Friday and as drier air in the low-mid levels gradually starts working in from the west. From Northeast OH into Northwest PA the showers will likely begin "lulling" at times this evening, but won't completely stop until some point later Friday night or early Saturday. This is because of some lake- enhancement amid west-northwest flow, along with somewhat deeper synoptic moisture and a bit more synoptic lift behind our gradually departing closed low. Even across Northeast OH and into Northwest PA we'll likely be down to rather light/spotty showers by Friday night, though enough to keep some POPs in the forecast. Additional rain amounts for most of the area will be under 0.10", with 0.10-0.25" across the snowbelt and locally a bit more in the higher terrain of Erie County, PA.

Temperatures struggled to get out of the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s. Friday will be slightly warmer than today, with highs still mainly in the 50s area-wide...nearing 60 in Northwest OH. Lows Friday night are once again expected to bottom out in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley on Saturday through Sunday. The strongest of these disturbances should move SE'ward across our CWA on Sunday. At the surface, weak troughing lingers over/near the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley as a ridge attempts to build from the Upper Midwest. This weather pattern at the surface and aloft will maintain an unusually- cold air mass across our region for late May. Late afternoon highs are expected to reach the 50's in NW PA and the upper 50's to mid 60's in northern OH on Saturday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 30's to upper 40's around daybreak Sunday. During the late afternoon on Sunday, highs are expected to reach the upper 50's to mid 60's.

Primarily fair weather is expected in our CWA through Sunday as the aforementioned surface ridge attempts to build into our region and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. However, NW'erly mean low- level flow, 850 mb temperatures near 1C over/downwind of ~15C Lake Erie, and greater/deeper low-level moisture should allow isolated lake-effect rain showers to impact far-NE OH and NW PA during the morning through early afternoon hours of Saturday. Lake-effect precip should end later Saturday afternoon as weak lake-induced CAPE wanes via synoptic-scale low-level dry air advection and a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the aforementioned ridge. During Sunday afternoon through early evening, isolated rain showers may impact far-eastern Lake Erie and clip NW PA as the aforementioned shortwave trough moves SE'ward across our region, is accompanied by a surface trough axis, and low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface trough axis release weak potential instability.

Fair weather is expected region-wide Sunday night as the aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft begins to build in earnest from the Upper Midwest and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. Easing surface winds and pockets of clear sky should contribute to overnight lows reaching mainly the lower 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Current odds favor dry weather in our CWA on Monday as the aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft continues to build and eventually crests E'ward in northern OH and NW PA. Accordingly, stabilizing subsidence should continue to impact our region. Weak low-level CAA transitions gradually to weak low-level WAA as our region becomes located along the western flank of the surface ridge.
This factor combined with intervals of sunshine should allow late afternoon highs to reach the 60's.

Aloft, cyclonic W'erly to SW'erly flow and embedded shortwave troughs should impact the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley Monday night through Thursday as a longwave trough axis approaches slowly from the northern and central Great Plains and eventually the central Great Lakes and Lower MO Valley. At the surface, an attendant trough should overspread our region from the TN and Mid OH Valleys as an embedded low wobbles NE'ward from the south-central United States toward southwestern QC. This low track may allow a surface warm front to sweep NE'ward through our CWA on Wednesday and a weak trailing surface cold front to sweep generally E'ward across our CWA Wednesday night into Thursday. Periods of rain showers should impact our region Monday night through Thursday due a combination of the following: Moist isentropic ascent aloft preceding the shortwave trough axes and the longwave trough axis; moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front; low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front.

Late afternoon highs should reach the 60's on Tuesday and mainly the mid 60's to lower 70's on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Tuesday and mainly the lower to mid 50's around daybreak Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
A mixed bag across the area this afternoon, though all sites are experiencing ceiling and/or vsby restrictions of some sorts.
Steadier rain continues from roughly KLPR-KMFD points east- southeast. IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility are most common in this area, though a few sites in the Cleveland metro have improved to low MVFR. Farther west it is mainly dry with VFR vsby and mainly MVFR ceilings. A batch of scattered showers will impact parts of Northwest and North Central OH, potentially including TOL, FDY, and MFD late this afternoon into this evening, with brief vsby restrictions possible with the heavier showers. Farther east, there should be a relative break in the rain this evening, though occasional showers (mainly southeast of Lake Erie) will continue tonight into Friday. Ceilings will generally bounce between MVFR and IFR from KLPR-KMFD points east through much of tonight before improving to MVFR late tonight into Friday morning. TOL and FDY should improve to VFR late tonight or early Friday morning.

Winds will generally persist out of the west-northwest through Friday. Speeds are 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt this afternoon.
Gusts will subside tonight before picking back up to around 25kt again on Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms through Saturday.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM EDT Saturday for U.S. nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley. Beach Hazards Statement for a high risk of rip currents remains in effect until 1 AM EDT Saturday along the Lake Erie shore from Erie County, OH to Erie County, PA.

A low wobbles ENE'ward from the eastern Great Lakes to the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday as the attendant trough lingers over Lake Erie. Accordingly, SW'erly to NW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots through midnight tonight become primarily W'erly to NW'erly over Lake Erie during the predawn hours of Friday morning. Waves of 3 to 8 feet are expected east of Vermilion, while shorter fetch will result in waves of 1 to 4 feet in U.S. waters farther west. Very similar wind and wave conditions are expected during the daylight hours of Friday. During Friday night, W'erly to NW'erly winds are expected to ease gradually to around 10 to 15 knots. Waves are expected to subside gradually to 3 feet or less by daybreak Saturday. Future forecast trends may require the Small Craft Advisory to be extended in time, especially east of The Islands.
W'erly to NW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected on Saturday.

During Saturday night through Monday, a ridge is expected to build from the western Great Lakes. Variable winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected. NE'erly to E'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are forecast Monday night through Tuesday as the ridge exits gradually to the north through east and a weak trough overspreads Lake Erie from the TN and Mid OH Valleys.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>149.