Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Akron, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
2:30 PM Update:

Key Messages: -Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over Northeast OH and Northwest PA this afternoon. These storms are capable of producing locally heavy rain, with a lower risk for isolated severe weather.
-After a break through the remainder of the afternoon, an arcing line of storms is expected to quickly push in from the west- southwest this evening with greater potential for severe weather.
-The greatest confidence in severe weather this evening in across Northwest OH, where an Enhanced Risk (risk level 3/5)
for severe weather is in place. The risk gradually diminishes east across North Central and Northeast OH, where a Slight Risk (level 2/5) is in place to near the PA border. The risk level drops off to Marginal (1/5) across Northwest PA.
-The main severe risk this evening will be damaging wind gusts, with large hail a secondary risk. There is a lower but non- zero potential for tornadoes, especially across Northwest OH.
-Timing into Northwest OH (including Toledo/Findlay) for the severe threat is greatest 6-9 PM...across North Central OH (including Sandusky, Mansfield, and Lorain) 7-10 PM...in the Cleveland-Akron-Canton corridor 8-11 PM...in far Northeast OH (including Youngstown) 9 PM-12 AM...and in Northwest PA between 11 PM-2 AM if storms remain strong that far east.

An MCV over Lake Erie is helping to force a batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms from the lake into northern OH and northwestern PA early this afternoon. The environment is most supportive of heavy rain with this initial round, given skinny instability profiles, high precipitable water values, and rather marginal amounts of wind shear. With that said, a couple of cells have been weakly rotating, so will continue to monitor for isolated/marginal severe potential with the current activity. A lull in activity is expected behind this activity for a few hours into this evening, with warm, humid, and somewhat breezy conditions. Hopefully everyone enjoys 70-75F dew points...

After the brief break, the main focus for severe weather arrives from the west this evening. Radar/satellite/water vapor depict an arcing and strongly-forced band of convection evolving near the IL/IN border, with plenty of heating taking place ahead of the line. The strong forcing and continued destabilization should allow this line to surge into Northwest OH at a strong to severe intensity this evening. The greatest forcing will pass just northwest of the region, and timing gradually becomes an issue farther east as we move towards and past sunset. So, the greatest and highest-confidence severe threat is across Northwest OH (in and near the SPC enhanced risk), with the threat gradually lowering to the east. However, suspect the line of storms will have enough momentum to remain strong to at least locally severe to at least the I-77 corridor (even if they're gradually weakening by then), with a lower-confidence severe threat across the rest of Northeast OH and perhaps into Northwest PA. There's certainly a chance hit-or-miss severe weather occurs all the way east across our forecast area this evening into tonight, though will need to assess the state of the incoming storms this evening and environment across the local area behind this afternoon's storms to say with more confidence how far east an organized severe threat will persist this evening. With that said, there are enough "pros" that the SPC did expand the Slight Risk east to the OH/PA border with their 12:30 PM convective outlook update. Activity should exit OH by midnight, if not slightly earlier, with activity exiting PA around or just after midnight (see timing in Key Messages).

In terms of potential severe hazards this evening, the combination of moderate instability (1500-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates (0-3km lapse rates of 8-8.5C/km), marginal to moderate downdraft CAPE of 700-900 J/KG, and marginal to moderate shear (effective bulk shear 30-35kt and 0-3km shear of 20-30kt with modest SRH) across Northwest OH will support primarily a damaging wind gust risk with a linear storm mode. If there are any discrete cells, marginally severe hail is possible...though the primarily linear mode and poor mid- level lapse rates (near 6C/km) should limit large hail potential. Shear is marginal for a tornado threat, though we will need to watch for any bowing/surging portions of the line or any rotating discrete cells that get ingested by the line for a localized tornado risk. As storms push east this evening, shear will remain similar to the values listed above or may increase slightly...while instability and low-level lapse rates gradually weaken farther east as we move past sunset. This will likely maintain a primarily wind damage risk with surging/bowing portions of the line farther east across our area...with lower but non-zero hail and tornado potential. Will also need to monitor for locally heavy rainfall and flooding with high precipitable water values remaining in place and some recent heavy rainfall, though increased flow aloft should keep storms generally moving this evening and into tonight.

A general lull in activity is expected overnight tonight behind the round of storms, though with the surface cold front trailing behind the line of storms there could be some lingering shower potential overnight tonight. Lows will generally dip into the mid to upper 60s, with somewhat brisk southwest winds continuing tonight (gusts potentially 25-35 MPH) as low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes. The axis of the mid and level trough will swing through our region on Thursday. We will continue with the chance for scattered rain showers and maybe some isolated thunder during the day Thursday with the higher POPs favoring the morning and midday. Rain chances will quickly taper off from west to east during the afternoon as the weather system pulls away. Considerable cloudiness and push of a slightly cooler, less humid airmass will follow the cold front passage on Thursday with high temps in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Broad upper level trough will continue to exit to the east Thursday night as a ridge aloft and at the surface builds into the region from the west. Thursday night will be the mildest night of the short term as lows settle in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the wake of the upper trough and surface cold front.
High pressure remains nestled south of the local forecast area this weekend and will allow for warm, moist air to advect from the Gulf. Highs on Friday will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Heat becomes established by Saturday as highs rise into the mid 80s to low 90s with little overnight relief as lows settle in the upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Hot and humid weather is expected to last through the long term period with potentially record breaking heat by early next week.
High temperatures are forecasted to rise into the 90s Sunday through Tuesday coupled with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Little overnight relief is expected as overnight lows settle in the mid 70s each night. Maximum heat index values through the long term will range between the upper 90s to 100F with Heat Advisories possibly needed through early next week. Next best chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be on Tuesday as a shortwave moves overhead.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from approximately LPR to MFD points east, with the greatest coverage over and near Lake Erie. This activity will continue east while exiting through late afternoon. Lightning, along with brief vsby reductions to IFR or lower, can accompany storms within this activity. After a brief lull with breezy south-southwest winds and mainly VFR conditions, an arcing line of thunderstorms is expected to surge in from the west this evening. Confidence in impacts is very high (>80%) at TOL, FDY, and MFD, high (60-90%)
at CLE and CAK, and medium (40-60%) at ERI and YNG. Included TEMPOs at all sites to indicate potential wind gusts, vsby reduction, and a best guess at a 1-2 hour timing window of potential direct impacts. This activity exits east, though a cold front moves through from west to east late tonight into early Thursday. This will bring continued potential for shower activity along the front, with MVFR ceilings likely spreading in along and behind the cold front into Thursday. Another round of showers and some thunder is likely Thursday afternoon, though future cycles will take a better look at that.

South-southwest winds at 7-15kt with a few gusts to 25kt will continue through this afternoon and early evening. Winds gradually shift more southwesterly tonight and likely increase a bit to the 10-18kt range with gusts 20-30kt into Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with scattered showers and isolated storms Thursday afternoon. A large high pressure system will build over the region over the weekend into early next week with fair skies and quiet weather.

MARINE
Southerly winds generally around 10 knots will continue through this evening before increasing to 15-20 knots and shifting to the southwest tonight. Elevated southwesterly to westerly winds 15-20 knots will continue through Thursday morning. Highest wave heights building to 3-5 feet should remain limited to open waters through Thursday morning given the offshore component. Opted to hold off on any small craft advisories with this forecast package and wait another forecast cycle to better determine magnitude and timeframe of elevated wind speeds.

Westerly winds will diminish to 5-10 knots through Thursday as high pressure builds across the region through the end of this week. A warm front will lift north across the lake on Saturday which will increase southwesterly winds to 10-15 knots before they diminish to 5-10 knots on Sunday as high pressure persists.

CLIMATE
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988)
06-23 96(1911) 91(1964) 94(1948) 94(1923) 94(1943) 92(1964)
06-24 95(2005) 93(1933) 96(1952) 95(1923) 93(1952) 92(1952)
06-25 104(1988) 101(1988) 104(1988) 100(1988) 99(1988) 100(1988)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.