Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Nyack, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Deepening low pressure east of the Canadian Maritimes will move farther out into the North Atlantic through tonight, while high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley works slowly east. As the pressure gradient begins to weaken later today into tonight winds will begin to weaken. Before then though, plan on NW gusts today of 25 to 30 mph. The airmass will be colder with highs ranging form the upper 20s inland, to the lower 30s along the coast. This is about 5 to 8 degrees below normal. For tonight, with gradually diminishing winds, lows will bottom out in the mid to upper teens for most locations, except the lower 20s for the NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The surface ridge axis moves into the area toward daybreak Thursday and then east with a developing light southwest flow.
An amplifying shortwave trough digging SE from the Great Lakes on Thursday will result in increasing clouds mainly in the afternoon. The associated frontal system dissipates as it approaches the area, however, there should be some lift with the upper trough as it works across the area during the afternoon and nighttime hours. NBM PoPs are negligible for most of area with the exception of far eastern LI. However, this consensus approach with upper level disturbances in the NW flow has at times been deficient this season. Nam3km and HRRR simulated reflectivity also show increasing returns from late afternoon into the evening overspreading the area. Thus, have introduced 20 to 30 PoPs for snow shower activity Thursday afternoon and night. The precipitation looks to be light with possibly a couple of hundredths of an inch liquid equivalent. One area to watch though is far eastern LI where weak low pressure develops to the southeast. This could increase the liquid equivalent some with perhaps a light coating of snowfall. However, confidence is low at this time. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s with nighttime lows in the teens inland and 20s at the coast.

The upper trough passes to the east early Friday with shortwave ridging moving in ahead of another amplifying trough moving into central Canada and the upper Midwest. This will become a player in the weather over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will work across the area. Temperatures will warm some with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 with plenty of sunshine.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Surface high pressure south of the area on Friday night and a large low pressure north of the Great Lakes region in Canada will allow for increased southerly flow for the area. This will increase moisture and temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front from the parent low moving well north of the area on Saturday. Increased temperatures into the upper 30s and low 40s will allow for mainly rain to fall over the area on Saturday with the cold frontal passage. A frontal wave looks to develop along the cold front to the south of the area and pass to the south and east, largely missing the area as it passes by Saturday night into Sunday.

In the wake of the departing cold front, mid-level energy continues to approach the area from the southwest and develops a weak low pressure system over the Southeast US and Mid-Atlantic. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly and where the low develops and eventually tracks which will determine out p-type and the amount of precipitation the area receives. The ECMWF and CMC are more on board with a closer low pressure system passing to the south bringing a period of light rain/snow or mix of both to the area, where the GFS has a more suppressed and slower system that more closely follows the departing cold front offshore through early Monday.

Beyond Monday, much of the week looks dry and cold as an arctic high pressure system settles over much of the Central US. The area will remain in between a large low pressure system well to the northeast and the approaching high pressure so a brisk and persistent NW flow will allow for dry and frigid air to move into the area for the middle of the week. High temperatures on Tuesday may not rise out of the low 20s for much of the area with cold temperatures remaining for Wednesday with highs in the mid-20s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The area terminals remain in between low pressure to the northeast and high pressure to the southwest through the TAF period.

Gusty WNW-NW winds and VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will be generally direction 290-310 today with sustained wind speeds of near 15-20 kt and gusts near 25-30 kt.
Some gusts may reach 35kt. The strongest winds will be from late this morning into this afternoon. Gusts subside tonight and wind backs to more W/WSW Thursday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts 3-5 kts higher than gusts in TAF are possible during the TAF period.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Light snow showers possible in the afternoon and at night with MVFR possible.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Saturday: MVFR or lower at times with rain likely, possible snow at night. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Sunday: Chance for MVFR or lower at times with possible rain/snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A gusty NW flow of 20 to 30 kt will continue on all waters through the day, but diminish toward evening. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to develop across the non-ocean waters by early this evening, and by early morning on the ocean. Expect sub-SCA conditions as a frontal system dissipates to the west on Thursday and high pressure builds over the area on Friday.

SCA conditions likely develop on the ocean with gusts of 25kt and waves near 5 feet ahead of a cold frontal system for a brief period on Saturday before falling back down below SCA conditions Saturday night. Waves develop once again Sunday afternoon with increased NW flow allowing for SCA conditions into at least early Monday.

HYDROLOGY
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.