Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greenport, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Temperatures remain below normal through at least early next week with the exception of Thursday.

2.) Potential for snow late Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Some of the coldest air of the season builds into the region today with temperatures only reaching the lower and middle 20s.
A gusty west wind will make it feel even cold with wind chill values only in the single digits. This is about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

As high pressure builds in tonight, wind diminish and lows will get into the single digits inland and the lower teens at the coast.

As the high slides east and a return flow sets up, temperatures warm a bit on Wednesday and then a few degrees further on Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 20s and 30s. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A cold front moves across the region late Thursday, followed by a second on Friday evening. It will be this second cold front that brings a modified Arctic air mass into the area for the weekend.
Highs on Friday will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s. The weekend and start of next week will see highs only in the teens and lower 20s. Overnight lows will fall into the single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 2
We will continue to monitor a low pressure system moving out of the middle portion of the country which is expected to move off the Middle Atlantic coast early Sunday morning and pass south of long island during the day Sunday. With plenty of cold air in place, any precipitation will be in the form of snow. The question is how far north the precipitation field from this low reaches. 00z GFS/CMC has the area seeing a period of snow during this period. Will continue to stick close to the NBM guidance. The forecast carries a chance of snow from Sat night into Sunday night, though it is still way too early to get into specifics.



AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure builds in through the day.

VFR.

WNW flow to start the night with any remaining gusts becoming more occasional or subsiding all together. Speeds under 10 kt for the morning push, picking up after 14Z, with gusts 25 to 30 kt then developing and persisting through late day. Gusts subside early evening, and winds lighten further into early Wed morning as the high builds closer.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts around 30 kt possible in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late Tonight: VFR. W winds 5-10 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: A period of MVFR or lower possible with a band of rain or snow.

Friday: VFR with W winds becoming NW G25-35kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible depending on the track, timing, and intensity of possible low pres.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A gusty west flow will produce SCA conditions across all waters today, persisting on the ocean through the early morning hours Wednesday. Seas on the ocean are expected to build as high as 5 to 9 ft, highest east of Moriches Inlet due to the westerly fetch. Waves on the sound will get up to 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas will begin to gradually subside tonight.

Some freezing spray is possible from through at least the first part of tonight.

A brief lull Wednesday morning will be replaced by a strengthening SW flow in the afternoon with the return of SCA conditions on the ocean waters. The SCA conditions will continue on the ocean through Friday morning ahead of and behind a cold frontal passage, with SW-W flow gusting to 25 kt and seas 5-7 ft. An Arctic cold frontal passage Friday afternoon should then bring SCA conditions to all waters Friday afternoon/night, with NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt on the ocean, and seas 5-6 ft.

SCA conditions should continue on the ocean Sat into Sat night, with NW-N flow gusting to 25-30 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt may also be possible on the non ocean waters as well Sat night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.