Tuesday, September21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monterey, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 7:45PM Tuesday September 21, 2021 11:08 AM EDT (15:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 7:00AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 445 Am Edt Tue Sep 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from late tonight through Thursday morning...
Today..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering north. Gusts up to 25 knots in the morning. Cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Tonight..North wind 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 6 to 10 feet occasionally to 13 feet.
Wednesday..North wind 20 to 25 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers. Waves 10 to 14 feet.
Wednesday night..North wind to 30 knots. Gusts up to 35 knot gales. Chance of showers. Waves 12 to 16 feet. The water temperature at st. Joseph is 57 degrees and at michigan city is 67 degrees.
LMZ046 Expires:202109211615;;949210 FZUS53 KIWX 210845 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 445 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-211615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monterey, IN
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location: 41.1, -86.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 211043 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 643 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 508 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

A strong cold front will stall across the area today and bring periodic rain with a few embedded thunderstorms through early Thursday. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected and a flood watch is in effect for portions of the area. It will also be breezy on Wednesday and Thursday with wind gusts up to 35 mph and highs only around 60.

SHORT TERM. (Today) Issued at 508 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Watching cold front and associated line of convection slowly approach the CWA early this morning. Steady decline in updraft strength expected to continue or even accelerate through the morning as hi-res guidance indicates loss of better midlevel lapse rates and instability (despite surface temps inching into mid 70s ahead of front). Anticipate an increasingly broken line of showers with just a few embedded thunderstorms to cross the area through the morning. No severe storms expected but some gusty winds can't be completely ruled out. Initial line now far outpacing the actual cold front which will continue to slow its eastward progress through the day as potent shortwave digs into Missouri and mid/upper flow becomes increasingly parallel to the front. This may allow for some minor instability recovery in our eastern zones this afternoon. More importantly, lower level fgen really begins to light up late this afternoon into tonight upper level jet streak approaches and strengthens. A marginally unstable environment in the presence of this increasing dynamic forcing for ascent will support widespread rain, particularly along the I-69 corridor later in the day. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible but still not anticipating a severe threat given marginal, low density CAPE and best shear behind the front. Would still have to watch for an isolated pocket of gusty winds with any more vigorous updrafts that manage to develop though.

LONG TERM. (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 508 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Attention then turns to heavy rain/flooding threat as potent Missouri wave becomes negatively tilted, lifts NE, and lights up prolonged, strong deformation/fgen band over our eastern CWA. Trend in 00Z guidance was further northwest with this active frontal zone now expected to impact I-69 and eastward. Ample moisture feeding into this system with a prolonged period of excellent dynamics. Several guidance sources indicating potential for up to 4" in spots over our E/NE. The heaviest rain will likely be tonight with CVA bullseye approaching, good upper jet support, strong low-midlevel fgen, and some lingering (weak) instability However. light/moderate rain will continue into early Thu as deformation zone ramps up and some spots certainly could see around 4" when all is said and done. Of course the downside is dry antecedent conditions. Soils are dry and river levels are low so it will take a lot of rain to cause issues. There is also not a high degree of confidence in latest models given inconsistency over previous runs However. after coordination with neighboring offices and in light of potential of up to 5" in isolated spots . have decided to issue a flood watch for our E/NE zones. General preference for the ECMWF/Canadian solutions which would maintain some showers in our northern zones through Thu as vertically stacked low slowly drifts NNE This is not expected to be impactful though. focused more in our north-central and NW zones . and will go with 12Z Thu end time for watch.

Other item of note will be gusty winds. Gusts of 30-35 mph possible Wed and perhaps Thu. This is unlikely to cause any damage but will contribute to drastically different sensible weather given highs struggling to reach the 60s. These strong winds will lead to waves of 10 to 14 feet on Lake Michigan which may cause some beach erosion and minor lakeshore flooding. A lakeshore flood advisory is in effect. Forecast thereafter is relatively quiet. Another cold front crosses Fri night/Sat with another shot of cool air to start next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 634 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Rainy conditions and overcast skies will prevail today. The line of rain I discussed at the last issuance has since dissipated to only a few scattered showers. However, rain showers are expected to become more numerous as the day progresses, as moisture transport and upper-level support improve. Confidence in rain start times are very low, as is the timing of the TS chance. Based on current conditions and the expected progression of development in the afternoon, I suspect KFWA has a greater chance of seeing a TS than KSBN.

Timing of any IFR ceilings offers medium confidence and was based largely on ensemble probabilities. There is a pool of IFR ceilings over central IL lifting NNE, which may build into KSBN. KFWA is favored for IFR ceilings when the bulk of the rain arrives late today/overnight.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday morning for INZ007-009-018.

Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through Thursday evening for INZ003.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 3 PM CDT Thursday for INZ003.

MI . Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday morning for MIZ080-081.

Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through Thursday evening for MIZ077.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 4 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ077.

OH . Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM . Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for LMZ043- 046.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . AGD SHORT TERM . AGD LONG TERM . AGD AVIATION . Brown

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi48 min WSW 17 G 18 69°F 1015.8 hPa65°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 51 mi88 min SW 5.1 G 7 68°F 1015.9 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 69 mi68 min SW 15 G 17 70°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester Fulton County Airport, IN16 mi73 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast72°F68°F88%1016.3 hPa
Starke County Airport, IN18 mi73 minN 010.00 miOvercast66°F66°F100%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRCR

Wind History from RCR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmSE3S5S7SE6SE6SE4S5SE3SE3S4CalmSE3S3SE3CalmE3CalmSE5E4SE5SE6SE6
2 days agoE5E4CalmN4NW3CalmCalmNE5NE4NE4NE5NE3E4E5SE7SE5E4E4E3E4E5E3SE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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