Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monterey, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 5:47PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:12 PM EST (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:28AMMoonset 11:38PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 311 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm est this evening through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy through midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow through midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 20 knots. Slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Snow likely through midnight, then a chance of snow after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots backing southwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. The water temperature at st. Joseph is 37 degrees and at michigan city is 35 degrees.
LMZ046 Expires:202101190515;;121065 FZUS53 KIWX 182011 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 311 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-190515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monterey, IN
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location: 41.1, -86.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 182311 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 611 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 608 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

Light snow showers near Lake Michigan will continue into the night with a few flurries elsewhere. A cold night is in store as well as temperatures drop into the upper teens to lower 20s. Another round of light snow moves in for Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

Plenty of vorticity to work with over this period. On these westerly trajectories, some lake enhancement continues to be indicated mainly for our MI counties in the short range models. With a fairly large DGZ thickness and some RH to work with in there, though really only bottom part of the DGZ is moist, expect mostly snow to fall as a result tonight into Tuesday. Periodic upticks in lake enhanced CAPE should allow for times of sputters and starts to this lake effect especially for a couple of hours after 00z tonight and then again during the afternoon Tuesday as a cold front slides south from MI into the area. Some riming is indicated in the DGZ cross-hairs through the period so that would keep the ratios lower. All told, expect another 1 inch in Berrien and Cass counties MI and there could be some flurries for areas away from the lake effect zones as the sheared area of mid level vorticity works east from IL. With temperatures not expected to get above freezing until Thursday, watch out for slippery spots where snow has fallen and black ice has formed especially during Tuesday morning and up by the lake where it has been precipitating the most. Tonight's lows fall into the 20s, but if we do get any clearing they could edge closer to 20 degrees instead of low to mid 20s.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 233 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

With the upper low in eastern Canada, a lobe of vorticity rounds the base of its trough and passes by overhead Tuesday night after 00z. At the surface, a weak moisture-starved clipper-like low pressure system is expected to pass by with coupled jets to add support and trailing high pressure indicating cold air following the system. This would indicate higher end SLRs with 15-20:1 being most likely for this event. Sometimes these systems can pack a sneaky wintry punch as long as there is a moisture to work with. Models do show some sort of moisture advection coming into it, but it doesn't really have any connection to the southern stream to work with. This is also a pretty quick moving system and that should help to keep snow totals on the lower end. Downstream of the lake in BEH, some lake response may occur with west or slightly west northwest trajectories, but with shallow inversion heights and some riming indicated in the location of the omega cross-hairs, snow totals are expected to be on the lower end. As such have some chance snow PoPs in there to account for it up to 12z Wed morning and another 1 inch or so snow is not out of the question closer to the lake. Have also increased wind gusts towards 20 kts for Tuesday night with some T/P gradients to work with and mixing up to 900 mb evident on forecast soundings.

Following Tuesday night, more pronounced ridging moves into the region shutting off the active period through end of the work week. Fairly strong flow across the United States will keep any low pressure systems to our north or south and on the weaker side. Our next chance for sunshine occurs on Thursday and if we can realize that, we may be able to get temperatures into the 30s to perhaps near 40 degrees, but again cloud cover may not allow that especially if we can't bring in southerly trajectories to get rid of the lake enhanced cloud cover. We'll have to watch the period between Sunday and early next week as a trough ejects out of the southwestern US and enters into the airmass left behind by a cold departing 1030mb high pressure system.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 608 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

Cyclonic low level flow with generally high end MVFR ceilings across northern Indiana will gradually weaken through the forecast period. Approaching mid level shortwave on Tuesday with associated mid level deck.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Murphy SHORT TERM . Roller LONG TERM . Roller AVIATION . Murphy

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi42 min W 19 G 22 28°F 20°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 51 mi92 min WSW 7 G 9.9 29°F 1016.6 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 69 mi72 min W 14 G 20 31°F 1015.9 hPa (+2.7)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester Fulton County Airport, IN16 mi17 minWSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy28°F25°F86%1016.6 hPa
Starke County Airport, IN18 mi17 minW 1010.00 miOvercast28°F21°F74%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRCR

Wind History from RCR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W6W6W7W6W7W6W6W5W5W7W7W8W8W7W8
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2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSW6SW4S5SW5SW7SW9W9SW6W8W9
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.