Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monterey, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 9:16PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:31 AM EDT (13:31 UTC) Moonrise 2:00AMMoonset 4:46PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 441 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Today..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the morning. Mostly cloudy, then decreasing clouds in the afternoon. Isolated showers ending early morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet by midday.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South wind 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off michigan city is 77 and at st. Joseph is 59 degrees.
LMZ046 Expires:202007161615;;926018 FZUS53 KIWX 160841 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 441 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-161615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monterey, IN
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location: 41.1, -86.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 161052 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 652 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 213 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Rain showers will gradually decrease in coverage from west to east this morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may redevelop along a weak front this afternoon across far northeast Indiana into northwest Ohio. Hot and humid conditions are expected over the weekend with heat index values around 100 expected by Sunday. This heat and humidity may support occasional showers and storms early next week.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Low pressure moves by overhead today allowing showers and perhaps some thunderstorms mainly for areas east of US-31. The best instability for any thunderstorms occurs during the afternoon mainly along and east of I-69 out ahead of a trough on the backside of the low pressure system. The better shear exists north of US-6. Despite the aforementioned parameters, CAMs lack in their simulated reflectivity and it's likely the poor moisture profiles and general subsidence that contribute to that. There is also the chance that this doesn't even fire off storms until it's east of our area. Meanwhile, mixing heights build ahead of that trough that swings through and the back side of the low level jet still provides ~20 kts winds, so wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a breeze to 20- 25 mph east of I-69 during the day.

Highs today will be the warmest east of I-69 again where the air remains the warmest ahead of the instability trough. Could see cloud cover cutting into the maximum potential of temperature rises today, but mid 80s are likely there whereas CAA, albeit weak, does help to restrict highs west of I-69 to the low 80s. Also expect to see some 70F dew points mainly east of I-69 out ahead of that instability trough. After starting the day around 70 degrees with the extra humidity around, tonight's low drop back into the mid 60s with the drier air coming in and clouds clearing out from northwest to southeast over night.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

The mid week's upper trough moves to the east and a building ridge in the South helps to usher in more of a zonal flow pattern. Within this flow, a moderately strong shortwave moves from the Northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes by Saturday afternoon and that and that allows for strong WAA pushing a warm front into the area later Saturday. This would be our next chance for rain, but it's only a slight chance for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms as instability increases during the day. The limiting factors for this chance for thundershowers is the lack of forcing, and shear if you want severe weather.

The other story with this warm front rising north will be the entrance back into hot high temperatures. Low 90s will be possible over most of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday and perhaps Monday as well. Monday's chance for hot temperatures depends on the entrance of a cold front from the northwest later Sunday/Sunday night and how far south it can make it into the forecast area so that areas south of US-30 have the best chance at reaching 90 degrees. Also, with the instability around on Sunday, afternoon showers/storms could eat into its chance for warmer temperatures as well.

Beyond Monday, the chance for showers/storms largely depends the location of a meandering theta-e boundary and any remnant outflow boundaries so can't totally rule out storms each day next week especially with some modeled instability around. In addition, highs have the potential to reach at least the mid 80s but could reach 90 degrees a few days next week as well.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Compact, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will continue to exit east across northeast Indiana early this morning. Accompanying sfc low pressure/weak cool front will also be translating east across northern Indiana this afternoon. Combination of convergence with nose of low level jet and passage of this small scale vort max has allowed for widespread showers/isolated storms overnight, which are shifting east of the terminals as of 1030Z. Mid level drying is transitioning precip to periods of drizzle which has effectively lowered cigs to lower end IFR/LIFR at KSBN. Given track of sfc low, will keep forecast slightly more optimistic at KFWA with TEMPO IFR conditions this morning. Both terminals should improve this afternoon as drier northwest flow builds into northern Indiana. Some scattered showers may redevelop along lagging weak sfc trough, but instability will likely be very limited and will continue to handle with VCSH mention at KFWA through 19Z.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM CDT this morning for INZ003.

MI . Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ077.

OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ046.



SYNOPSIS . Marsili/AGD SHORT TERM . Roller LONG TERM . Roller AVIATION . Marsili

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi32 min N 19 G 20 71°F 69°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 69 mi32 min NNE 9.9 G 14 68°F 1014.9 hPa (+2.4)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester Fulton County Airport, IN16 mi37 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1013.2 hPa
Starke County Airport, IN18 mi37 minNW 61.25 miOvercast70°F69°F100%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRCR

Wind History from RCR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S7SW4S9SW9S8S9S5S6SE5SE3E4SE4CalmN3E4E8E5NE4NE3CalmSW3SW5W6
1 day agoS4SE4SE4S4SE3SE5SE3S7S6S7SE5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmE3S5S3
2 days agoN6N10N11
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N8N8N7N8N7N6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.