Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southport, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New Jersey as hot weather continues through Wednesday.

2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

3) A much cooler airmass settles over the region Thursday into the holiday weekend with an ongoing chance of showers from time to time.

4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Southwest flow around an offshore high will continue to keep temperatures well above normal through the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures have risen well into the 80s and 90s away from the immediate coastline so far today. Overnight lows will not provide much relief, only falling into the mid 70s across the NYC metro and remaining in the mid 60s across much of the rest of the area.

While temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler than today, heat index values will once again rise into the mid 90s across much of New York City and northeast New Jersey. With this in mind, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas.
Outside of the advisory area it will still be unseasonably warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coastline.

KEY MESSAGE 2
While an isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut, conditions overall are expected to remain dry as the best upper level support remains north of the area and subsidence helps to suppress convective development.

A better chance of showers and thunderstorms exists on Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. Precipitation chances will increase through the day, with the best chance for showers and storms between about 2pm-8pm. While storm coverage remains uncertain, any storms that do develop could contain strong gusty winds, with high resolution model soundings indicating the potential for 500-1000 J/kg of DCAPE during the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday. While brief heavy downpours are possible in any storms, overall these storms should be quick moving, which will mitigate the potential for any flooding.

With the front lingering just offshore, shower chances will continue through Wednesday night across Long Island and portions of New York City.

KEY MESSAGE 3
High pressure begins to build toward the region on Thursday in the wake of the front. This will bring an end to any lingering showers along the coast Thursday morning, with dry conditions continuing into the day on Friday. Temperatures will also be 15-20 degrees colder, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. This is near to even a few degrees below normal for this time of year.

Disturbances in the mid levels are forecast to push into the region from mainly a southwest direction during the course of the holiday weekend. The higher likelihood of shower activity currently is slotted for Friday night into Saturday. Afterwards, subsequent shortwave timing differences take place among the various NWP and AI global guidance. Additional shortwaves are expected to move across Sunday, all while heights build along the Mid Atlantic coast. On Monday additional energy may attempt to work in, this time from the west. Therefore the expectation at this time is for intervals of unsettled conditions featuring on and off shower activity. Forecast uncertainty increases more for the second half of the holiday weekend, in particular for Sunday into Monday. A frontal boundary is progged to be stalled to the south throughout the holiday weekend, and may get north enough to bring another round of unsettled conditions with showers late Monday into Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 4
Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold frontal passage occurs this aftn and eve. High pres builds N of the area on Thu.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18Z. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop after 18Z, with the best chance from 21-00Z. Kept TSRA chances in a PROB30 at this time as confidence in the coverage of TSRA remains uncertain. If a thunderstorm does occur, it could be strong to severe with brief strong gusty winds up to possibly 40 to 50 kt. MVFR or lower conditions possible in any TSRA.

Aft the fropa, CIGS lower to around 4000ft overnight with the potential for additional shwrs. Confidence in shwrs is low so they have not been included in the TAFs.

WSW winds this mrng, becoming NW this afternoon and evening aft the fropa. The flow veers further to the NE aft 8-9Z Thu. Wind speeds generally around 10-15 kt much of the TAF period with gusts to near 20 kt this afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms today.

MVFR CIGS possible aft 00Z Thu, but the probability was too low to include in the TAFs attm.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late Tonight: Mainly VFR with NW winds veering to the NE.

Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers.
Mainly VFR thereafter.

Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters through the day on Wednesday. While gusts so far have remained below 25 kt, still expecting seas to build to 5-6 feet and remain elevated through the day on Wednesday. In addition to the elevated seas and marginally gusty winds, a cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening will bring with it the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Once the front passes, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels into Saturday morning before an increasing easterly flow brings advisory conditions to the ocean, and potentially to some of the non-ocean waters Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017

May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176- 178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.