Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orient, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:50PM Friday August 14, 2020 3:34 AM EDT (07:34 UTC) Moonrise 1:11AMMoonset 4:35PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1031 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Overnight..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1031 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front will slide south of long island this evening. The front moves further south Friday into Friday night as a wave of low pressure rides along it. High pressure builds across new england on Saturday. The high may move east on Sunday, allowing a warm front to approach, followed by a cold front on Monday. High pressure may return on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orient, NY
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location: 41.15, -72.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 140247 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1047 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving cold front will slide south of Long Island this evening. The front moves further south Friday into Friday night as a wave of low pressure rides along it. A Ridge over eastern Canada shifts east Saturday as a shortwave advances towards southern New York from the west. The shortwave merges with the approaching longwave trough from the Great Lakes late this weekend. The longwave trough remains stationary through mid week next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Forecast is on track with only minor change to the forecast made to reflect current conditions.

The cold front has sagged just south of Long Island and surface obs indicate a light northerly flow developing. This front is likely to remain just south of Long Island this evening as a shortwave passes to the south and east. Any precipitation should stay to the south, closer to the frontal boundary overnight

High pressure tries to build across New England out of southeast Canada overnight, with some drier air beginning to work into the region from the north. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies are forecast this evening as the shortwave passes, but there should be some partial clearing inland overnight. Closer to the coast, mostly cloudy skies are likely to persist through the night. Some low stratus and patchy fog is also possible given the weak flow behind the front and the likelihood that the drier low levels stay to the north.

Lows will be in the 60s inland and in the lower 70s closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A wave of low pressure develops along the stalled front to the south. The trend in the model guidance over the last several runs is to keep this wave well to the south. There may be a brief passing shower in the morning as E-NE flow begins to increase, but otherwise most locations will be dry Friday morning. The E flow in the afternoon may provide some upslope convergent flow north and west of NYC for a brief passing shower as well. Have confined PoPs to slight chance with this potential. There is also a chance that low stratus may hang on for a portion of the day near the coast. Otherwise, a near seasonable day is in store with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.

High pressure continues to ridge down across New England Friday night as a stronger wave of low pressure passes along the front to the south. The NE flow between these two systems will keep us dry with low temperatures in the 60s for most locations.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. During the morning Saturday the ridge centered in eastern Canada dominates the overall flow regime as the associated high pressure system continues to promote relatively dry northeasterly winds. As the day progresses into the afternoon, the focus becomes more on the approaching shortwave trough exiting the Ohio River Valley. Over the weekend mid-level moisture returns to southern New York as this system approaches. Winds veer slightly and precipitable water values increase to around 2 inches. Models are indicating possible enhanced isentropic lift along the warm front late Sunday. Total QPF from these showers and possible thunderstorms is hard to pin down as amounts will be highly contingent on the location of the heavy rainfall axis. At the moment models are keeping the heaviest rainfall south of Long Island. However if the system drifts north rain amounts ranging between 1 to 2 inches total across southern New York, northeast New Jersey and southern Connecticut are not out of the questions. This means isolated flash flooding will again be possible late this weekend. Areas not affected by rainfall will see cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s.

The primary longwave trough over the Great Lakes Region pivots through New York early next week. This dynamic lift from this trough may induce additional showers to start the week, but precipitable water values hover around 1.4 to 1.5 inches. Any showers in this environment should be light to moderate. As the trough axis exits New England mid week, locally long range models are depicting some slight surface ridge from a possible 1017 mb high above Pennsylvania. Subsidence should keep rain chances to a minimum but uncertainty still exists whether or not this holds through Thursday. More confidence in high temperatures which should persist in the low 80s through the week.

There is a moderate risk of Rip Currents on Saturday.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A weak cold front south of Long Island will dissipate overnight.

Winds are expected to be very light tonight at 10kt or less E-NE, but may become light and variable for a majority of the night for most terminals. E-NE winds re- develop on Friday, generally near 10 kt, with coastal terminals shifting just south of E Friday afternoon.

Potential for stratus developing late tonight, with MVFR conditions possible after 06Z. The best chances for MVFR conditions are KISP, KGON, and KJFK. Any stratus should lift by 14Z-15Z.

Finally, There is a low chance for fog tonight. KHPN may see some MVFR fog, but that area of fog has been diminishing. Elsewhere, the most likely places for fog are the coastal terminals, with the highest chances at KISP. However, it chances were too low to include in any of the TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Friday night. slight chance of showers with MVFR or lower conditions, mainly NYC metros/KSWF. Saturday. VFR. Sunday-Monday. Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower in any showers/tstms. Tuesday-Wednesday. VFR.

MARINE. A weak pressure gradient tonight through Friday brings sub-SCA conditions. Easterly flow then increases Friday night. Northeast winds 17-19 kts increase to 22 to 25 kts Saturday into Sunday as a system approaches as a wave of low pressure passes offshore. SCA conditions will be likely as seas increase to near 6 feet over the ocean. Winds begin to relax late Sunday however waves may remain at or around 5 feet through Monday morning. Sub SCA conditions with light west winds 5- 10 kts begin Tuesday before shifting south by the middle of the week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Saturday.

Precipitable water values could be around 2 inches Sunday into Monday as a warm front with heavy rain moves slowly over southern New York. QPF values between 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are not out of the question. Nuisance to minor flooding could be possible in any showers and thunderstorms, primarily in urban and other poor drainage areas.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DS NEAR TERM . DS SHORT TERM . JP/DS LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . JP MARINE . DJ/DS HYDROLOGY . DJ/DS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 16 mi46 min 73°F 74°F1017.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 17 mi46 min N 4.1 G 5.1 72°F 72°F1017 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi34 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 1016.7 hPa73°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi46 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 72°F 79°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi38 minN 410.00 miA Few Clouds70°F69°F97%1017 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi40 minN 0 mi75°F70°F84%1017.5 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi39 minN 09.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3N8N4N4N7NE7N5CalmS5SW8CalmW3CalmS3SE4CalmN3CalmCalmN5N3N5N5N4
1 day agoCalmCalmS3SW5W6SW5SW10SW8SW9SW9S10S10S8S8S6S7S3S5CalmS3SW3CalmNW3Calm
2 days agoSW5SW3SE3CalmS4S5S5S8S6S9S6S11S9S8SW8SW7SW10SW9S10SW6S7SW7SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island Sound, New York
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Plum Gut Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:52 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:01 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.81.21.61.92.22.221.81.51.20.90.811.52.12.62.932.82.521.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:05 AM EDT     1.84 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:22 AM EDT     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:21 PM EDT     2.17 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:54 PM EDT     -2.69 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.2-1.4-0.50.61.51.81.71.20.4-0.5-1.5-2-1.9-1.3-0.40.61.62.12.11.50.7-0.3-1.5-2.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.