Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orient, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:55PM Friday January 24, 2020 11:16 AM EST (16:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:07AMMoonset 5:42PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 918 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon...
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain in the evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 918 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure retreats to the northeast today as developing low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight. Low pressure will then track across the region through the weekend and into the canadian maritimes on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orient, NY
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location: 41.15, -72.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 241414 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 914 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure retreats to the northeast today as developing low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight. Low pressure will then track across the region Saturday, through Maine on Sunday, and into the Maritimes on Monday. A broad area of high pressure should then bring fair weather to the region through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Middle and upper ridge axis overhead is helping in limiting cloud cover this morning. Surface high pressure over New England will also gradually retreat to the northeast through the day. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated for the rest of the day with above normal temperatures in the middle and upper 40s. It is not out of the question portions of urban NE NJ and NYC metro reach 50 degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A closed upper low slowly lifts towards the Great Lakes tonight and then gradually slides to the east through Saturday. A vertically stacked low will meander near the Great Lakes region. As the upper low nears and upper level ridge axis slides east, a secondary low pressure will develop across the Mid- Atlantic tonight. The secondary low will move across the region through Saturday.

The first concern for tonight will revolve around whether there will be any frozen precipitation across the NW interior. Much of the model guidance holds off precipitation until after 12z Saturday, but if any light precip does develop, it could be in the form of light freezing rain or sleet. Based on forecast soundings, saturation is initially shallow with plenty of dry air to overcome. At this time, not expecting any snow to develop. Once lift and moisture increase Saturday morning, mid level warming will prevent any snow as well. The secondary low and corridor of strong lift and deep moisture will move across the region from west to east from late morning through the afternoon. Models have continued to come into good agreement on this scenario. There could be a brief period of freezing rain at the onset in the morning across the far NW interior as surface temperatures look to be near 32 degrees initially, but this is expected to be brief and a predominately a plain rain event area wide. The NAM/NAM3-km continues to be the coldest at the onset, but any lingering temperatures at or below freezing will be quick to rise due to increase E-SE flow.

The other concern will be the quick hitting moderate to heavy rain, mainly in the afternoon due to a subtropical feed of moisture and PWATs around an inch. The axis of moisture and lift will move quickly across the region and a dry slot in the mid levels will move overhead ending the rain in the evening. The quick nature of the system should prevent any flooding concerns, but minor nuisance flooding is possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Some slight chances for rain and snow showers across the Orange county extremities for Sunday and Sunday night as lake moisture attempts to reach the forecast area. There could be a stray sprinkle or flurry elsewhere, but the probability was too low to include in the forecast. The forecast has then been kept dry through Thursday with a broad area of high pressure building in. The NBM with local modifications was used for temperatures.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR with high pressure over the terminals today which slides east tonight. VFR conditions give way to MVFR very late tonight for most terminals (mainly after 06Z) as an area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. Potential for IFR conditions for the city terminals after 12Z Sat. Precipitation moves in after 13Z Saturday. It will be plain rain for most terminals, with the exception of KSWF, where a brief period mix of freezing rain and sleet is possible until around 15Z Saturday. Thereafter, plain rain is expected.

Light winds continue today, but gradually become E, slowly increasing to around 10 kt for the city and coastal terminals after 06Z Saturday. Winds continue to increase through the morning Saturday, with sustained winds of 20 kt and gusts to 25 kt by late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Winds will be increasing aloft as well, with SE wind shear of 50 kt at 2000 ft around the same time

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http://weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Saturday. MVFR/IFR in rain at the coast, mixed precipitation across the interior changing to rain. E winds 10-20G20-25 kt during the day with LLWS possible. Winds diminish at night. Sunday. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain or snow showers possible across the interior. Monday-Tuesday. VFR.

MARINE. Strengthening easterly flow will bring ocean waters to SCA levels by early Saturday. Therefore, an SCA will go into effect for the ocean waters. There could be a brief period in the early afternoon where gale force gusts could occur, mainly on the ocean. Wind gusts fall below 25 kt by Saturday night as the system pulls away, however seas will be to slow to subside.

It is likely that 5 ft or greater seas on the ocean will continue through the day on Sunday and probably into a good portion of Monday. Sub-sca conds on all waters are then anticipated for Monday night and Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY. An inch to an inch and a half of rainfall is expected Saturday through Saturday night. No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated however nuisance flooding is possible during the afternoon when a period of moderate rain is possible.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There remains some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of any coastal flooding on Saturday.

For the morning and very early afternoon high tide cycle: The most vulnerable areas along the South Shore Bays may see high tide too early to match up with the strongest winds ahead of the low. This window before peak winds is too narrow to bank on at this point however, so the forecast leans towards more of a worst case scenario, and a watch has been issued for srn Nassau. For the remaining areas, a statement has been issued for those areas that are expected to exceed or come close to minor flood thresholds. Some of these areas may be upgraded to an advisory depending on the evolution of the system.

For the evening high tide cycle: Some minor flooding is possible, again the South Shore Bays are most susceptible, due to lingering water levels and the impact of the rain. If the low slows at all, the risk will increase due to the locked in east flow.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Coastal Flood Watch Saturday morning for NYZ179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . CB NEAR TERM . CB/DS SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . AVIATION . BC/JP MARINE . CB HYDROLOGY . CB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi37 min N 8 G 8.9 43°F 1027.1 hPa20°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 16 mi47 min 42°F 38°F1029.9 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 17 mi47 min N 6 G 8.9 40°F 42°F1029.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi47 min ENE 1.9 G 7 39°F 37°F1029.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi81 minN 410.00 miFair42°F18°F38%1029.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi23 minENE 4 mi44°F26°F49%1030 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi42 minNNE 410.00 miFair43°F17°F36%1029.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW9SW12W7SW5SW4CalmW4CalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE3CalmN6N6N4Calm
1 day agoS8S6SW6SW8SW7W6NW5W3CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmNW3CalmCalmN3CalmN5N3CalmCalmSW5
2 days agoN7N7N6N4NW9N5NW3NW4CalmN3N5NW7N4CalmN3NW6CalmN3N3N4N4N3N4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island Sound, New York
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Plum Gut Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:57 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:18 AM EST     2.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:42 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:42 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:49 PM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.70.2-00.20.81.52.22.732.92.51.91.20.5-0.1-0.20.10.71.21.82.12.22

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM EST     -2.88 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:47 AM EST     2.86 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:06 PM EST     -3.44 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:41 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:29 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:20 PM EST     2.76 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:34 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-2.7-2.8-2.3-1.20.21.72.62.82.41.50-1.6-2.9-3.4-3.1-2.2-0.80.82.12.72.620.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.