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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 343 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 343 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure over the region through Thursday will slowly weaken beginning Thursday night, and give way to an approaching frontal system on Friday. The associated cold front will pass through Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will then likely build from the south and west Sunday into Monday.

FXUS61 KOKX 031949 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 349 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the region through Thursday will slowly weaken beginning Thursday night and give way to an approaching frontal system on Friday. The associated cold front will pass through Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will then likely build from the south and west Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Generally tranquil conditions are expected through the middle of the week as a ridge of high pressure remains centered over the Northeast. Clear skies are expected tonight and with light winds, radiational cooling is likely once again. Lows are expected to drop into the middle to upper 50s for the interior. Coastal and urban areas will have lows in the low 60s. Additionally, dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s will likely result in areas of fog developing overnight as temperatures cool. Fog may become locally dense. Any SPSs for dense fog will be handled as it occurs.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure remains firmly overhead on Wednesday so another day of dry and clear conditions are expected. Higher heights and a light flow will allow for temperatures to once again climb into the 80s for much of the area. While record highs are not expected to be broken, temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average. Coastal areas that are typically prone to seabreeze influence may only rise into the upper 70s.

Light winds and clear skies will once again result in a favorable radiational cooling environment Wednesday night. Dew points will prevent lows from dropping too much but lows in the low to middle 50s are expected for Interior areas with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s for coastal areas. Patchy fog is once again expected to develop overnight. Locally dense fog will remain possible.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Heights fall on Thursday as the upper ridge axis shifts offshore ahead of a digging H5 trough into the Upper Midwest. Upper low in the trough eventually closes and cuts off from the flow over the Great Lakes this weekend, potentially meandering nearby into early next week.

Late this week, E/SE flow strengthens as 1030 mb surface high pressure shifts offshore south of the Canadian Maritimes.
As the upper level trough approaches, an associated surface low will track well to our north and west. This low will drag a cold front through the area late Saturday into Saturday night, with the potential for a wave of low pressure to form along the front over or near our area. The placement of this low will affect rainfall totals, but right now the system overall continues to look progressive. With a moist air mass in place, BUFKIT soundings indicate PWATs increase to about 1.75 inches ahead of the cold front on Saturday, rain chances increase Friday afternoon and become likely late Friday night through Saturday. Locally heavy downpours will be possible., with perhaps an embedded rumble of thunder or two. Total rainfall looks to average around an inch regionwide.
The cold front moves through Saturday afternoon, with winds increasing and veering westerly behind it. As the trough approaches, TC Phillipe will be moving north through the open Atlantic. Global guidance indicates the negatively tilted trough may bend Phillipe back to the west, though still expected to remain west of the local region. Lingering showers are possible for the next several days with the upper level low, mainly north and west of NYC. Drier weather returns by early next week with high pressure building to the south and east.

After an initial mild start to the period, temperatures fall below normal behind the fropa on Saturday. Highs in the 70s continue Thu and Fri, before trending down through the weekend. Temperatures may struggle to climb out of the 50s everywhere Sunday and Monday with the cool upper low meandering nearby. Largely followed the National Blend of Models for this update, with only subtle adjustment.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pres builds over the region tngt, and offshore on Wed.

Light winds today, mainly sw, although sea breeze flow expected near the coasts. Winds become light and vrb tngt, then out of the se on Wed.

Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. Some fog expected tngt, especially inland arpts. Patchy fog included for TEB/HPN/SWF attm.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Variability in wind direction can be expected thru 00Z, but speeds remain blw 10kt.

Fog is expected to only impact TEB attm. Very low chance of vis restrictions elsewhere, although EWR would be the next most likely.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Rest of Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night...MVFR or lower in fog.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...MVFR or lower possible. Rain possible by aftn.

Saturday...MVFR or lower with rain.

Sunday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub SCA conditions are expected through at least Thursday under a weak pressure gradient with high pressure remaining in control. A continuing ocean swell is also expected.

Conditions remain below SCA thresholds through Friday. Increasing SE flow ahead of a cold front into the weekend should allow ocean seas to build to around 5 ft Saturday. Wind gusts may exceed 25 kt on the ocean on Sunday before subsiding. Non ocean waters largely remain below SCA criteria through this time.

Ocean seas will remain elevated into early next week as long period swells from distant Tropical Storm Philippe move into the waters.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center, https:/ www.nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts on Philippe.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns expected through at least Thursday. A period of showers is likely late Friday through Saturday, with around an inch of rainfall expected at this time. WPC currently has the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, indicating the potential for nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday 10/3

Record Fcst Newark
85/1950
85 Bridgeport
80/2000
77 Central Park
87/1919
81 LaGuardia
85/2000
82 JFK
84/2002
79 Islip.........80/2002*...81

* = and previous years

EQUIPMENT
The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out of service for unrepresentative data. The gauge is currently being looked into by our partners at the USGS.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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South Norwalk
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Tue -- 02:42 AM EDT     7.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:54 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:00 PM EDT     7.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:35 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Norwalk, Connecticut, Tide feet

Greens Ledge
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Tue -- 02:32 AM EDT     7.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:38 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:49 PM EDT     8.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:19 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Greens Ledge, Connecticut, Tide feet

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