Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Congers, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A period of mainly light showers expected this morning, especially close to the coast.

2) Unsettled weather with periods of showers for the holiday weekend.

3) Warmer and drier conditions are possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
The cold front will continue sagging south this morning. A broad upper trough will also pass over Northern New England. Upper divergence associated with a jet streak to our north develops a weak wave of low pressure on the front to the south. The combination of these features will should develop showers over the area early this morning, generally around day break. The showers are most likely across the western half of the area initially and then should be most prevalent along the coast towards mid to late morning. The showers will push south of the area early in the afternoon as high pressure over the Great Lakes begins to ridge down into New England.

The showers should be light with rainfall amounts averaging just a few hundredths inland to around a tenth of an inch closer to the coast. Temperatures today will only be in the lower to middle 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures on Friday will transition to unsettled with periods of showers over the upcoming holiday weekend.

The front to our south will slowly lift north towards the area this weekend as multiple waves of low pressure/disturbances move along it. The front should stay to our south through the weekend as high pressure builds across New England Saturday, then offshore Sunday into Monday. The high will leave behind surface ridging over the area initially on Saturday, so it may take some time for the initial disturbance to bring showers in from southwest to northeast. The ridging will weaken as overrunning strengthens Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Areas across Southern CT that do not see as much shower activity on Saturday should see that change Saturday night with widespread showers across the area. The showers are expected to continue into Sunday morning. Weak low pressure passes to the east by Sunday afternoon which should help lower coverage of showers, especially for the western half of the area. Easterly flow could still bring in showers across eastern CT and eastern LI through Sunday evening. A few lingering showers are possible Sunday night.

The latest model consensus/NBM QPF Saturday into Sunday ranges from one half to one inch. Not looking for any significant hydrologic impacts, but nuisance minor urban flooding is possible.

Uncertainty increases for Memorial Day. Current model consensus is pointing towards a chance of showers, but not a complete washout. Another shortwave passes across New England, but the modeling is differing with its amplification and whether or not weak low pressure will linger near the coast. The passage of the shortwave by Monday night should help push the frontal boundary further south.

Temperatures this weekend will remain on the cool side. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. If the rain comes in quicker and is able to overspread more of the area in the morning/early afternoon, then temperatures could end up a few degrees cooler. Temperatures should be a bit milder on Sunday, but still several degrees below normal in the lower to middle 60s. Highs on Memorial Day warm closer to seasonal normals.


KEY MESSAGE 3
A large mid to upper level ridge may begin to build towards the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday next week. This will help bring a return to dry conditions. Temperatures may reach the upper 70s and lower/mid 80s for highs by next Wednesday.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pres will build N of the area thru Fri as a frontal sys stays to the S.

Mainly VFR. Areas of lgt rain or sprinkles will pass thru the area thru about 21-23Z. MVFR chances have trended down, and are excluded from the TAFs, but could still occur with the rain.

N 10-15 kt becomes W/SW/S later today below 10 kt. Most TAFs sites go light and variable tonight. Winds increase out of the NE/E on Fri 5-10 kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Rain could end 1-3 hours earlier than what is prevailed in the TAFs.

VFR is prevailed in the TAFs. MVFR chances appear quite low, but still remain a possibility with rain today.


OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: VFR with increasing E flow.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Monday: Chance of MVFR or lower with showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels through Saturday morning. Conditions will return to SCA levels on all waters with increasing E flow bringing wind gusts to 25-30 kt Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Ocean seas will also build to 5-8 ft. Winds will gradually subside below SCA levels late Sunday and Sunday night, but ocean seas will likely remain elevated through Monday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.