Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Lagoon, CA

DISCUSSION
Broad upper troughing to the north is generating generally zonal flow over the PNW. So far little effect with the surface to mid levels being fairly dry. Marine stratus will redevelop overnight mostly along the Humboldt coast. Light drizzle is possible again early Friday morning as a weak upper shortwave and surface front drifts through the region. This will enhance the pressure gradient as a weak thermal trough develops in the interior.
Overall temperatures will be cooler on Friday with breezy northwest flow developing along the coast, especially south of Cape Mendocino.

Chance of isolated thunder Friday afternoon is becoming less and less likely for eastern Trinity county with minimal moisture available to initiate convection. High amplitude ridging expected to return Saturday and Sunday, allowing temperatures to briefly rebound into the 70's and 80's - models have been trending warmer over the last few days with NBM indicating 30 to 50% chance of highs exceeding 85 degrees in interior valleys of Trinity and Mendocino counties, especially on Saturday. Another upper trough and surface frontal system expected to clip the region late Sunday into Monday.
NBM indicates 40 to 50% probabilities for >0.01 inches, especially Monday morning.

Model clusters are showing stronger agreement for widespread ridging across the west for early to mid next week. Overall warming and drying is expected across the region.

AVIATION
MVFR ceilings are currently developing along the coast but have not yet reached the coastal terminals. MVFR will expand into ACV and possibly CEC overnight into the morning hours. Winds will increase out of the north on Friday mixing out the cloud cover and resulting in gusty conditions at the coastal terminals.
UKI will remain VFR with some gusts into the teens during the afternoon hours on Friday. /RPA

MARINE
Northerlies are increasing over the coastal waters as a ridge moves overhead allowing high pressure to build over the eastern Pacific. These winds will peak Friday evening with short period seas building in response. Went ahead and expanded the small craft into the northern outer waters zone primary due to the forecast steep seas. Winds may remain just below small craft criteria. Winds will decrease Saturday into Sunday as a deep trough approaches the Pacific Northwest, disturbing the surface pressure field. Light southerlies may develop for a short period on Sunday, most likely in the northern waters, as the trough passes through the region. Northerlies will return next week behind the trough. /RPA



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ455-475.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ470.