Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Marion, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A breezy day with the potential for a round of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.

2) Dangerous rip currents expected today at ocean beaches, potentially continuing into Friday for Suffolk County beaches.

3) After a dry weekend, a robust low pressure may brings periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms next Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A deep sfc low pressure system heads into the Canadian Maritimes as a mid/upper low and associated trough accompany it.
An impressive (for June) 130kt jet at 300mb dives south from the PacNW with the left exit region progged to be over New England by this afternoon.

Deep southerly/southwesterly flow results with an approaching warm front located just south of the area this morning. The warm front will push north of the area by mid morning as the attendant surface low continues to the northeast. The area then becomes warm sectored, setting the stage for the development of showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Some showers are possible early this morning as the warm front surges through, but not expecting much in the way of precipitation.

With the warm front to the north, southerly flow will be on the increase this morning into the afternoon. Winds become gusty, possibly as high as 30-35kts for a period as the cold front approaches. Best chances for these gusty winds will be for NYC north and west, where destabilization/clearing will be most likely. An inversion just above the surface is advertised in the model soundings for Long Island and southern CT, which may inhibit gust potential here. Nonetheless, HRRR max wind gust potential keeps gusts in the 25-20kt range, and NBM max gust values look to be in the mid 30s mph, lending some confidence in the forecasted magnitude.

Finally the severe tstm threat, which will materialize ahead of the cold front early this afternoon. Today is another conditional day in the sense that much will hinge on how quickly the atmosphere can destabilize. This looks to be a high shear, lower CAPE event, with bulk shear values near or above 60kts. SBCAPE/MUCAPE values however look relatively unimpressive, with prefrontal values of 500-1000J/kg across the interior by early afternoon. DCAPE values are decent, however, near 800-1000J/kg, suggesting damaging winds would be the biggest threat with any thunderstorm. SPC does maintain the SLGT risk for the entire area. Bottom line is that any storm that does develop ahead of the cold front has the chance to be severe, but coverage may be more isolated and focused more on the western half of the CWA and weaken as they move east. Timing would be about 1pm - 6pm from west to east.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Southerly flow to near 25-30 kt, especially late this morning and afternoon, will create dangerous rip currents along the ocean beaches. Breaking waves near 4 to 7 ft are likely with increasing southerly swell of near 7 to 8 ft with 7 to 8 second period. A high rip current risk remains in effect.

Winds will be westerly on Friday, but lingering southerly swell will continue, especially for Suffolk beaches. Wave heights should subside further west and may range from 3-4 ft, but could still be 5- 6 ft further east. Will forecast a high rip current risk on Friday for ocean beaches across Suffolk and a moderate risk for Nassau, Queens, and Brooklyn ocean beaches. Have not extended the rip current statement for Suffolk ocean beaches yet to allow the day shift assess another model cycle of wind and wave data.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Global guidance continues to advertise a low pressure system that develops east of the Rocky Mountains on Sat. heading into the northeast on Monday. Mid levels have shortwave energy approaching around the same time from the north and west. Onshore flow will make for relatively cooler temperatures across the region Monday. Shower chances start late Sunday night, become most likely Monday and taper off early Tuesday. Rain could potentially be heavy at times with slight chance of thunderstorms Monday. Potential for a few inches of rainfall accumulations looking at long range ensemble forecast.
PWATS could approach near 1.75 inches for Monday across coastal areas.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A warm front lifts to the north this morning. A cold front follows this afternoon and evening.

MVFR-IFR ceilings will continue early this morning with overspread improvement to VFR ceilings expected 12-15z. MVFR could linger an few hours longer across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut.

Showers are possible this morning. PROB30 for TSRA has been maintained from 16-20z NYC terminals on NW and then 17-21z Long Island and S CT terminals.

Increasing S winds this morning, with gusts 25-30 kt developing mid to late morning and early afternoon. There is potential for a few gusts 35-40 kt 20z-00z as the direction shifts to the SW.
Localized stronger gusts are possible if any thunderstorm develops.

Winds will become W-WNW tonight with gusts ending around 04z.
Sustained speeds 10-15 kt likely overnight into early Friday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for flight category changes at JFK and LGA early this morning. Conditions could fluctuate between MVFR and IFR ceilings with brief LIFR at JFK.

TSRA timing could be off by 1-2 hours.

Start time of gusts this morning may be off by 1-2 hours.

Isolated gusts 35 to 40 kt possible 20z-00z.

Gusts 20-25 kt may persist several hours longer tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Late tonight: Gusts 15 to 25 kt possible.

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Saturday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: MVFR or lower with rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
S gusts 20 kt near the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With the passage of a warm front this morning, southerly winds and seas will both increase to above SCA thresholds. Gusts will increase to a peak of around 30-35 kt through the day on all waters with seas increasing to 6-8 feet on the ocean. an occasional 35+kt gust is possible on all water, especially this afternoon. In addition, t thunderstorms will also be possible early Thursday afternoon which could bring 35kt gusts or higher.

Winds shift to more W by Thursday evening and fall below SCA thresholds on all waters. Residual high waves on the ocean will allow the SCA to continue there through at least the night and possibly into the day on Friday, especially for eastern zones. SCA conditions remain possible for portions of the waters Friday night into the start of the weekend.

Low pressure may impact the waters on Monday, with SCA conditions possible.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.