Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quonochontaug, RI
November 5, 2024 2:33 PM EST (19:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:23 AM Sunset 4:38 PM Moonrise 11:41 AM Moonset 8:10 PM |
ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 105 Pm Est Tue Nov 5 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Wednesday through Wednesday evening - .
This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 4 seconds.
Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and W 2 ft at 4 seconds.
Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and W 2 ft at 4 seconds.
Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and W 2 ft at 4 seconds.
Thu and Thu night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and W 1 foot at 3 seconds.
Fri through Sat night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 105 Pm Est Tue Nov 5 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Increasing sw winds are expected into Wed as high pres moves offshore, with the strongest wind gusts expected Wed. A dry cold front will cross the waters Wed night, with winds becoming nw. Weak high pres then rebuilds over the waters thru Thu before another dry cold frontal passage increases nw winds for Fri. High pres then builds over the waters for this weekend.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
Block Island (Great Salt Pond) Click for Map Tue -- 02:48 AM EST 0.10 feet Low Tide Tue -- 06:22 AM EST Sunrise Tue -- 09:53 AM EST 2.77 feet High Tide Tue -- 10:40 AM EST Moonrise Tue -- 03:34 PM EST 0.21 feet Low Tide Tue -- 04:36 PM EST Sunset Tue -- 07:10 PM EST Moonset Tue -- 10:19 PM EST 2.12 feet High Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island, Tide feet
12 am |
1.3 |
1 am |
0.7 |
2 am |
0.2 |
3 am |
0.1 |
4 am |
0.3 |
5 am |
0.8 |
6 am |
1.3 |
7 am |
1.8 |
8 am |
2.3 |
9 am |
2.6 |
10 am |
2.8 |
11 am |
2.5 |
12 pm |
2 |
1 pm |
1.3 |
2 pm |
0.6 |
3 pm |
0.3 |
4 pm |
0.2 |
5 pm |
0.5 |
6 pm |
0.8 |
7 pm |
1.2 |
8 pm |
1.6 |
9 pm |
1.9 |
10 pm |
2.1 |
11 pm |
2 |
Moonstone Beach Click for Map Tue -- 02:58 AM EST 0.09 feet Low Tide Tue -- 06:23 AM EST Sunrise Tue -- 09:59 AM EST 3.08 feet High Tide Tue -- 10:40 AM EST Moonrise Tue -- 03:52 PM EST 0.23 feet Low Tide Tue -- 04:35 PM EST Sunset Tue -- 07:09 PM EST Moonset Tue -- 10:23 PM EST 2.34 feet High Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island, Tide feet
12 am |
1.5 |
1 am |
0.8 |
2 am |
0.3 |
3 am |
0.1 |
4 am |
0.2 |
5 am |
0.6 |
6 am |
1.2 |
7 am |
1.8 |
8 am |
2.4 |
9 am |
2.9 |
10 am |
3.1 |
11 am |
2.9 |
12 pm |
2.3 |
1 pm |
1.5 |
2 pm |
0.8 |
3 pm |
0.3 |
4 pm |
0.2 |
5 pm |
0.4 |
6 pm |
0.7 |
7 pm |
1.1 |
8 pm |
1.6 |
9 pm |
2 |
10 pm |
2.3 |
11 pm |
2.3 |
FXUS61 KBOX 051723 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1223 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Potentially record breaking warmth peaks on Wednesday as blustery conditions develop. Another dry cold frontal passage is expected Thursday into Friday ushering in more seasonable temps. Next chance for substantial precipitation comes late in the Holiday weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
10 AM Update...
Current forecast looks to be on track. Wind gusts are starting to kick up and clouds are starting to clear from the area.
Temperatures are still expected to reach the 70s today.
Previous update...
Bit of a tricky morning as parts of the region south of the MA Pike cleared out, leading to radiational cooling and even some radiation fog in places like Taunton and Providence. Thus, temperatures vary about 10F from south to north with our coolest locales actually residing across SE MA. Elsewhere, stream of moisture is clipping Essex County at this hour and should continue to do so over the next couple of hours until daytime heating is able to dry up some of the showers. Did opt to leave the PoP forecast as is, with 25% PoPs across the north shore given spotty nature of the showers.
For cloud cover, utilized a very heavy blend of the HRRR which seemed to have a better handle on the AM clearing than most other guidances.
Previous discussion...
Today is shaping up to be a transitional day back to unseasonable warmth as high pressure that subdued temperatures on Monday continues to shift offshore. Strong mid level ridging continues to build into the region though we remain just south of weak surface low pressure riding along the ridge axis that taps increasing moisture given southwesterly advection. PWATs surge to almost 1.5" this morning, but unfortunately we wont be able to tap into the best forcing that initiates showers to our north. At best, thinking that a few stray showers will make their way into Essex county between 3 and 9 am, though as we saw on Monday, returns on radar will be far more impressive than what actually reaches the ground.
It's hard to believe we're writing this again, but today bookends another unseasonable to near record warming trend as 850mb temperatures surge to almost 15C this afternoon.
Increasing dewpoints on SSW to WSW flow overnight actually increased temperatures across the region and we expect that trend to continue through this afternoon. While clouds this morning will stunt daytime heating for a few hours, breaks of sunshine around the lunch hour combined with downsloping flow will lead to temps warming into the upper 60s to even mid 70s for some. Did opt to increase high temps in the CT and Merrimack River Valleys a few degrees today, with a forecast high of ~73/74F at BDL airport, given the propensity of temperatures to overperform in this synoptic setup over the last several weeks. While RH values will be considerably higher today, thinking that the unapologetically dry soils will be able to retain a lot of radiation as soon as the sun starts peeking through.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Tonight...
Pressure gradient increases overnight tonight as more robust jet dynamics push east from the plains which will help keep winds elevated overnight as a 925mb jet of up to 50kt develops overhead.
Persistent ridging and SW advection will continue to pump warm, moist air into southern New England, which will influence lows overnight tonight, with temps only dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Wednesday...
More efficient mixing will begin with daytime heating, but, as of this writing, the worst of the 925mb jet will shift to the east around 12Z on Wednesday, which will hopefully limit the wind gust potential. Still, a modest jet of 30-40kt will linger over the region through the day, resulting in, at best breezy and at worst blustery, conditions. Upon coordination with our neighbors to the north, opted to increase wind gusts to the 25-30kt range across the high terrain using a blend of the previous forecast and the 90th percentile NBM but note that a slight deviation in dewpoints/mixing depth could snarl the wind gust forecast as noted by the previous forecaster.
Given developing westerly flow, warm temperatures aloft will again capitalize on downsloping flow, resulting in widespread 70F degree readings by Wednesday afternoon. We will be looking at potentially record breaking temps with portions of the CT River Valley making a run at 80F.
As has been the case over the last several weeks, the lack of rain and very dry soils will result in elevated fire weather concerns in light of dewpoints in the upper 50s. Winds of up to 30kt and record breaking warmth will only add straws to the fire weather camel's back. At best, its likely a special weather statement will be needed to outline the fire weather concerns, but we will collaborate closely with our state partners and neighboring office regarding the potential need for a Red Flag Warning.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Highlights...
* Not as warm Thu but still above normal with highs 60s to near 70 * Dry Fri & Sat with temps trending to more seasonable levels * A period of much needed rain possible sometime Sun into early Mon
Details...
Thursday...
A cold front will cross the region on Thu. This front will be like others we have seen of late...lacking deeper moisture and forcing.
So expect dry weather to prevail with no more than a few brief sprinkles if even that
Otherwise
temps will be cooler than Wed but given the mild start temps will still be above normal for this time of year. Highs will probably top off well into the 60s to near 70.
Friday and Saturday...
Large high pressure will build in from the west Fri into Sat. This will result in dry weather continuing with temps gradually cooling toward more seasonable temps. Highs probably still reach between 60 and 65 Fri and probably cool down into the 50s to near 60 by Sat.
Sunday and Monday...
Still quite the ways out into the future...but it does appear that there is the potential for a period of much needed rainfall sometime Sun into Mon. This as high pressure moves off the coast and a pretty potent closed low tracks across the Great Lakes and into Quebec/northern New England. This will induce a modest southerly LLJ and Pwats may climb to 1.5 inches. So certainly the potential for a period of much needed rainfall sometime Sun into Mon...but will have to wait and see if it comes to fruition.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
VFR, but may see some MVFR ceilings develop towards the south coast and perhaps parts of the high terrain. Could see some LIFR ceilings and vsby reductions for the Cape and Islands. The other concern will be for LLWS across all terminals with a modest southerly LLJ developing. SW winds of 10 to 15 knots with some 20+ knot gusts near the coast and in the high terrain tonight.
Wednesday...High Confidence.
Mainly VFR. SW winds around 15 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible in the afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Gusty SW winds develop today, leading to building seas late through tonight. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most of the waters, excluding the interior inner waters as well as Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor for waves up to 8ft and wind gusts to 30kt. Winds will peak Wednesday morning before dying back as strong low level jet shifts to our east.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Some SCAs will persist overnight.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
FIRE WEATHER
The protracted stretch of dry weather will continue to lead to elevated concerns for wildfire development until we can get a substantial wetting rain event. Relative humidities should range between 50-70 percent Tuesday with gusty southwest winds developing.
With a lack of significant rain expected over the next several days, Special Weather Statements are likely to be needed through this week coinciding with periods where winds are on the lighter side. Consideration will be given towards Red Flag Warnings to highlight a greater threat for wildfire development and spread when and where there are sufficiently strong winds. Wednesday could meet that wind speed criterion, but those decisions will be coordinated beforehand with our state fire weather partners on a day-to-day basis.
CLIMATE
Previous Record highs for Wednesday, November 6th
Boston: 76F set in 2022 Hartford: 76F set in 2022 Providence: 75F set in 2022 Worcester: 72F set in 2022
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ231>234.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ254>256.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1223 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Potentially record breaking warmth peaks on Wednesday as blustery conditions develop. Another dry cold frontal passage is expected Thursday into Friday ushering in more seasonable temps. Next chance for substantial precipitation comes late in the Holiday weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
10 AM Update...
Current forecast looks to be on track. Wind gusts are starting to kick up and clouds are starting to clear from the area.
Temperatures are still expected to reach the 70s today.
Previous update...
Bit of a tricky morning as parts of the region south of the MA Pike cleared out, leading to radiational cooling and even some radiation fog in places like Taunton and Providence. Thus, temperatures vary about 10F from south to north with our coolest locales actually residing across SE MA. Elsewhere, stream of moisture is clipping Essex County at this hour and should continue to do so over the next couple of hours until daytime heating is able to dry up some of the showers. Did opt to leave the PoP forecast as is, with 25% PoPs across the north shore given spotty nature of the showers.
For cloud cover, utilized a very heavy blend of the HRRR which seemed to have a better handle on the AM clearing than most other guidances.
Previous discussion...
Today is shaping up to be a transitional day back to unseasonable warmth as high pressure that subdued temperatures on Monday continues to shift offshore. Strong mid level ridging continues to build into the region though we remain just south of weak surface low pressure riding along the ridge axis that taps increasing moisture given southwesterly advection. PWATs surge to almost 1.5" this morning, but unfortunately we wont be able to tap into the best forcing that initiates showers to our north. At best, thinking that a few stray showers will make their way into Essex county between 3 and 9 am, though as we saw on Monday, returns on radar will be far more impressive than what actually reaches the ground.
It's hard to believe we're writing this again, but today bookends another unseasonable to near record warming trend as 850mb temperatures surge to almost 15C this afternoon.
Increasing dewpoints on SSW to WSW flow overnight actually increased temperatures across the region and we expect that trend to continue through this afternoon. While clouds this morning will stunt daytime heating for a few hours, breaks of sunshine around the lunch hour combined with downsloping flow will lead to temps warming into the upper 60s to even mid 70s for some. Did opt to increase high temps in the CT and Merrimack River Valleys a few degrees today, with a forecast high of ~73/74F at BDL airport, given the propensity of temperatures to overperform in this synoptic setup over the last several weeks. While RH values will be considerably higher today, thinking that the unapologetically dry soils will be able to retain a lot of radiation as soon as the sun starts peeking through.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Tonight...
Pressure gradient increases overnight tonight as more robust jet dynamics push east from the plains which will help keep winds elevated overnight as a 925mb jet of up to 50kt develops overhead.
Persistent ridging and SW advection will continue to pump warm, moist air into southern New England, which will influence lows overnight tonight, with temps only dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Wednesday...
More efficient mixing will begin with daytime heating, but, as of this writing, the worst of the 925mb jet will shift to the east around 12Z on Wednesday, which will hopefully limit the wind gust potential. Still, a modest jet of 30-40kt will linger over the region through the day, resulting in, at best breezy and at worst blustery, conditions. Upon coordination with our neighbors to the north, opted to increase wind gusts to the 25-30kt range across the high terrain using a blend of the previous forecast and the 90th percentile NBM but note that a slight deviation in dewpoints/mixing depth could snarl the wind gust forecast as noted by the previous forecaster.
Given developing westerly flow, warm temperatures aloft will again capitalize on downsloping flow, resulting in widespread 70F degree readings by Wednesday afternoon. We will be looking at potentially record breaking temps with portions of the CT River Valley making a run at 80F.
As has been the case over the last several weeks, the lack of rain and very dry soils will result in elevated fire weather concerns in light of dewpoints in the upper 50s. Winds of up to 30kt and record breaking warmth will only add straws to the fire weather camel's back. At best, its likely a special weather statement will be needed to outline the fire weather concerns, but we will collaborate closely with our state partners and neighboring office regarding the potential need for a Red Flag Warning.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Highlights...
* Not as warm Thu but still above normal with highs 60s to near 70 * Dry Fri & Sat with temps trending to more seasonable levels * A period of much needed rain possible sometime Sun into early Mon
Details...
Thursday...
A cold front will cross the region on Thu. This front will be like others we have seen of late...lacking deeper moisture and forcing.
So expect dry weather to prevail with no more than a few brief sprinkles if even that
Otherwise
temps will be cooler than Wed but given the mild start temps will still be above normal for this time of year. Highs will probably top off well into the 60s to near 70.
Friday and Saturday...
Large high pressure will build in from the west Fri into Sat. This will result in dry weather continuing with temps gradually cooling toward more seasonable temps. Highs probably still reach between 60 and 65 Fri and probably cool down into the 50s to near 60 by Sat.
Sunday and Monday...
Still quite the ways out into the future...but it does appear that there is the potential for a period of much needed rainfall sometime Sun into Mon. This as high pressure moves off the coast and a pretty potent closed low tracks across the Great Lakes and into Quebec/northern New England. This will induce a modest southerly LLJ and Pwats may climb to 1.5 inches. So certainly the potential for a period of much needed rainfall sometime Sun into Mon...but will have to wait and see if it comes to fruition.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
VFR, but may see some MVFR ceilings develop towards the south coast and perhaps parts of the high terrain. Could see some LIFR ceilings and vsby reductions for the Cape and Islands. The other concern will be for LLWS across all terminals with a modest southerly LLJ developing. SW winds of 10 to 15 knots with some 20+ knot gusts near the coast and in the high terrain tonight.
Wednesday...High Confidence.
Mainly VFR. SW winds around 15 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible in the afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Gusty SW winds develop today, leading to building seas late through tonight. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most of the waters, excluding the interior inner waters as well as Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor for waves up to 8ft and wind gusts to 30kt. Winds will peak Wednesday morning before dying back as strong low level jet shifts to our east.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Some SCAs will persist overnight.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
FIRE WEATHER
The protracted stretch of dry weather will continue to lead to elevated concerns for wildfire development until we can get a substantial wetting rain event. Relative humidities should range between 50-70 percent Tuesday with gusty southwest winds developing.
With a lack of significant rain expected over the next several days, Special Weather Statements are likely to be needed through this week coinciding with periods where winds are on the lighter side. Consideration will be given towards Red Flag Warnings to highlight a greater threat for wildfire development and spread when and where there are sufficiently strong winds. Wednesday could meet that wind speed criterion, but those decisions will be coordinated beforehand with our state fire weather partners on a day-to-day basis.
CLIMATE
Previous Record highs for Wednesday, November 6th
Boston: 76F set in 2022 Hartford: 76F set in 2022 Providence: 75F set in 2022 Worcester: 72F set in 2022
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ231>234.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ254>256.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 22 mi | 45 min | 30.11 | |||||
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI | 26 mi | 45 min | SSW 14G | 30.13 | ||||
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) | 29 mi | 37 min | 61°F | 4 ft | ||||
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI | 29 mi | 45 min | WSW 17G | 30.12 | ||||
NLHC3 | 30 mi | 45 min | 30.14 | |||||
PDVR1 | 30 mi | 45 min | SW 8.9G | 30.11 | ||||
44085 | 32 mi | 63 min | 62°F | 59°F | 4 ft | |||
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA | 32 mi | 33 min | SW 20G | 62°F | 30.16 | |||
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI | 33 mi | 108 min | NW 9.9 | 68°F | 30.15 | 55°F | ||
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI | 33 mi | 45 min | WSW 7G | 30.14 | ||||
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI | 38 mi | 45 min | SSW 13G | 30.11 | ||||
FRXM3 | 41 mi | 63 min | 69°F | 56°F | ||||
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA | 42 mi | 45 min | SSW 11G | 30.12 | ||||
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA | 42 mi | 45 min | 30.13 | |||||
PVDR1 | 42 mi | 45 min | SSW 11G | 30.11 | ||||
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI | 44 mi | 45 min | SW 11G | 30.11 | ||||
NBGM3 | 47 mi | 45 min | WSW 13G | 30.14 |
Wind History for Newport, RI
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBID
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBID
Wind History Graph: BID
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of north east
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