Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stratford, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Unseasonably mild/warmer air expected through Wednesday.
Areas of low clouds and fog develop during the evening and night time across coastal locations for the next couple of nights.

2) A strong frontal system impacts the area Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for rain, possibly changing to and ending as some wet snow Thursday, followed by noticeably cooler air to end next week.

3) Additional light mixed precipitation is possible late Friday into early Saturday from a passing Alberta Clipper system to our north.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Unseasonably warm temperature have been observed this afternoon with temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s across the entire region. This is a solid 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. The warm temperatures are expected to continue each afternoon through Wednesday, as 850 temperatures reach +10 C on Tuesday, and approach +12 C on Wednesday. Forecast guidance has been struggling with temperatures this afternoon with the NBM this afternoon being close to 11 degrees too low for temperatures. NAM-MET guidance has also been too low, however the GFS-MAVs have been the best of the guidance for today. Will stick close to the MAV temperatures for the next 2 days, based on todays performance.

Low stratus/fog development will be possible both tonight and Tuesday night. Still some question as to just how widespread the fog gets and how much visibilities drop. For now will keep just patchy fog in the forecast, and will need to be monitored.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A potent mid level shortwave approaches mid week. Enough ridging out ahead of the disturbance should keep the majority of our area dry through the day Wednesday. The chances of rain increase into Wednesday night with a gusty southerly flow ahead of the boundary. The cold front should pivot through first thing Thursday morning, so after a mild Wednesday night, the winds switch quickly to the NW on Thursday with a cP air mass moving in. Rain is likely to switch over to wet snow showers on the back side of the front as the upper level flow becomes somewhat parallel to the frontal boundary as the front attempts to behave like a anafront. Liquid precip amounts are likely to range around a quarter or less across the area. Temperatures during the day Thursday with gusty / blustery conditions will fall through the 40s and likely into the 30s before day's end. By Thursday night most places will fall below freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 3
An Alberta clipper low swings out of Canada and into the Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday. This will pass north of the area late Friday into Saturday. This will be a much weaker system compared to the Wednesday-Thursday system.

Not expecting any significant impacts aside from light precipitation and breezy winds. A rain or a rain/snow mix at the coast and a snow or rain/snow mix in the interior.

Some guidance still varies on how far south the precipitation extends. Its possible the precip may be limited to northern interior locations with coastal locations remaining dry, but this forecast remains in flux.



AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak high pressure will remain over the area.

VFR through the rest of the day, with SW winds around 10 kt this afternoon with occasional gusts 15-18 kt. A southerly sea breeze starts at JFK expands farther inland into late day.

Potential for IFR in fog tonight as onshore flow brings in the marine layer. Highest confidence is now farther east for KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON. Fog at other NYC terminals can not be ruled out.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon possible.

Fog likely at KJFK tonight mainly after 03Z. The fog could spread to the other metros after midnight but forecast confidence is low.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Afternoon: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. S winds G20kt late in the afternoon. LLWS also possible late in the afternoon E of the NYC metros.

Wednesday night: Showers likely especially after midnight, with MVFR or lower cond possible at times. S winds 10-15G20-25kt. LLWS likely.

Thursday: Rain showers likely in the morning, then chance of rain or snow showers in the afternoon. MVFR or lower cond possible. SW winds 10-15G20kt early, becoming W-NW 15-20G25kt.

Thursday night: Chance of rain or snow showers at KGON with MVFR cond still possible, otherwise VFR. W-NW winds 15-20G25kt in the evening.

Friday: Mainly VFR. S winds 10-15G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Friday night: Chance of rain or snow showers with MVFR or lower cond. S winds 10-15G20-25kt, becoming SW-W after midnight.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions expected through Tuesday. A southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front during Wednesday as small craft conditions are expected to return to the ocean waters during the afternoon, and for the remainder of the waters Wednesday night. Small craft conditions should persist across the waters on Thursday as the winds will be gusty out of the NW.
Sub advisory conditions should return by late Thursday night into Friday morning. Small craft conditions may return to the waters by Friday evening on a S to SW flow ahead of the next frontal system.

CLIMATE
Below are record high temperatures for Monday March 9th and Tuesday March 10th.

Monday March 9th: EWR: 82/2016 BDR: 64/2021 NYC: 77/2016 LGA: 75/2016,2000 JFK: 67/1973 ISP: 68/2016

Tuesday March 10th: EWR: 81/2016 BDR: 70/2006 NYC: 79/2016 LGA: 78/2016 JFK: 71/2006 ISP: 73/2016

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.