Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stratford, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:25PM Thursday December 5, 2019 3:22 PM EST (20:22 UTC) Moonrise 2:19PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 936 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ300 936 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in through tonight, then gives way to weak low pressure with a cold front Friday into Friday night. High pressure builds in through the weekend. A complex frontal system will impact the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stratford, CT
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location: 41.2, -73.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 051854 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 154 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in through tonight, then give way to weak low pressure with a cold frontal passage Friday into Friday night. High pressure will build in for the weekend. A frontal system will impact the area for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. An upper level trough continues to exit the region this afternoon with ridging building to our west. Expect clouds to increase this afternoon as WNW winds transport some moisture from the Great Lakes. It should remain dry though, but expecting breezy conditions with slightly below normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure will be centered to our south, but its ridge axis extends north towards us and enters the Tri-State area towards daybreak. This maintains dry weather through the night into early Friday morning. A weak low center and attendant cold front then approach from the Great Lakes and pass through in the afternoon to evening hours of Friday. These will bring chances of precipitation mainly in the afternoon and evening with the higher chances generally over northern and eastern areas. Precip types will be determined by boundary layer temp/RH profiles, which leaves rain or snow as the 2 possibilities. Profiles support snow or a mix of rain and snow greater than approx 25 miles north of NYC, and rain elsewhere. Any potential accumulations would be very light, but as of now, PoPs are below likely.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure builds in for Saturday with a northwesterly flow. Backing profiles in forecast soundings noted for Saturday will mean decent cold advection. Highs on Saturday will be colder than Friday, with highs only in the lower to middle 30s. With light winds and mainly clear skies, Saturday night will be cold, especially in the outlying areas thanks to radiational cooling. Went a couple of degrees below guidance for Saturday night, and several degrees below for Pine Barrens of Long Island.

Thereafter, the forecast area will be on a warming trend as the center of high pressure moves over the area Saturday night and pushes offshore late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Veering winds in forecast soundings as a warm front lifts well north of the area will mean warm advection for Sunday and highs more seasonable for this time of year, in the 40s region-wide.

A complex frontal system will impact the area at the beginning of the new work week as an upper level shortwave over the Northern Rockies dives south into the mid-West Sunday into Monday, which phases with a southern stream system Monday night into Tuesday, inducing a surface low that tracks over the Great Lakes and then into southeastern Canada into Tuesday. This will allow a cold front to approach through Tuesday. That will mean a continued southerly flow and progressively warmer temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. By Tuesday, highs will be well above normal, in the 50s region-wide. There is a slight chance that some precipitation moves in early Sunday night for western sections of the forecast area. If it does, it may be cold enough for a wintry mix, including some freezing rain. However, it is too far out at this time for any certainty in precipitation types, and if it does occur, it is expected to be brief. From late Sunday night through Tuesday, it should be warm enough for plain rain for the entire forecast area.

There is the potential for heavy rain during this time frame as there looks to be a tropical connection south of the high that comes up northward on its west side. From Sunday night through Tuesday night, both the ECMWF and the GFS have over 2 inches of rainfall across portions of the area. PWATs of over an inch are also noted in the GFS. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with where the heaviest rain would actually set up and with the timing. The one good thing is that the rain would fall over a long duration.

The cold front pushes offshore Tuesday night, ushering in a colder air mass for Wednesday, with highs in the 30s to around 40.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR as high pressure builds from the southwest. NW winds just to the left of 310 mag expected with speeds 15-20 kt and G25 to 30 kt for city terminals, G20-25 elsewhere. Winds gradually diminish tonight. Gusts should abate for the city terminals towards 5-6z and most of the outlying terminals towards 3z.

Ceilings are expected to lower below 10kft during Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front, but VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the morning.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday Afternoon. Chance of MVFR conds mainly N and NE of the NYC metros, with a brief rain and/or snow shower possible. Otherwise mainly VFR. SW to S winds G20kt. Friday night . VFR with NW winds G20kt. Saturday. VFR. NW winds G20kt in the morning. Sunday. VFR. Sunday night and Monday. Rain showers likely with MVFR conds. Tuesday. Sub VFR likely in rain, with conditions improving at night.

MARINE. SCA conditions today for all waters with a gusty WNW wind. There could be occasional gusts to gale force this afternoon on the ocean, but think they won't be widespread enough to warrant a warning. Winds subside tonight with advisory level conditions continuing for all waters, but ending the latest over the ocean and easternmost non-ocean waters. A relatively tranquil period follows for Friday morning, but SCA conds could enter the ocean waters by day's end and become more likely at night. There could even be some gusts to 25 kt over the eastern Sound and Bays late at night.

Winds will remain below SCA criteria through Sunday night and much of Monday morning as high pressure moves over the area into Sunday and pushes offshore Sunday. An approaching frontal system will allow southerly flow to increase late Monday morning into the afternoon, with gusts 25-30 kt into Monday night, mainly for the ocean waters.

Seas will remain below 5 ft through Sunday night, but build to 5 ft on the ocean waters by Monday morning. Waves continue to build on the ocean to 5 to 9 ft by Monday night.

HYDROLOGY. No significant liquid equivalent is forecast through Sunday. A significant long duration rainfall event is possible from Sunday through Tuesday night.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

The KOKX WSR-88D radar will be out of service until approximately 12/7 due to the refurbishment of the transmitter. This work is part of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ330-340-350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JP NEAR TERM . BC SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . JE MARINE . JC/JP HYDROLOGY . JC/JP EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 4 mi58 min NNW 11 G 19 41°F 45°F1007.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 12 mi52 min NNW 8.9 G 13 40°F 41°F1007.1 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 30 mi82 min WNW 19 G 27 41°F 2 ft25°F
44069 35 mi52 min WNW 21 G 25 40°F 38°F23°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 39 mi52 min WNW 19 G 27 42°F 32°F25°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 44 mi52 min N 18 G 23 41°F 44°F1010 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT2 mi30 minW 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast42°F19°F41%1008.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT13 mi29 minNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F25°F49%1007.8 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT19 mi31 minWNW 9 G 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F19°F50%1008.9 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT23 mi29 minWNW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast37°F19°F50%1008.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW14
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W7W6W6W5W7W5W5NW3CalmW5W3CalmW3W5W6W8W5W6W8W7W6
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Tide / Current Tables for Stratford, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Stratford
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:12 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:30 AM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:07 AM EST     5.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:02 PM EST     0.95 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:28 PM EST     5.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.91.62.73.84.85.35.14.53.62.81.91.211.32.23.34.3554.53.72.92

Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock Harbor entrance, Connecticut
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Black Rock Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:12 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:37 AM EST     6.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:58 AM EST     1.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:58 PM EST     6.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.93.14.45.66.46.55.94.93.72.51.61.21.62.63.855.96.35.953.82.61.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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