Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ogden, UT
November 10, 2024 4:17 AM MST (11:17 UTC) Change Location
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Area Discussion for Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 101022 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 322 AM MST Sun Nov 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure and gradually warming temperatures will continue into Monday. A quick hitting cold system will bring the threat of accumulating snow to the northern mountains Tuesday.
Another system may impact the area by next weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 322 AM MST Sun Nov 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure and gradually warming temperatures will continue into Monday. A quick hitting cold system will bring the threat of accumulating snow to the northern mountains Tuesday.
Another system may impact the area by next weekend.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates broad upper level ridging persists across the Southwest. A decaying and splitting upper level trough is approaching the western Great Basin. Another trough is approaching the Pacific Coast.
For today, expect temperatures to continue to gradually warm to near to above normal levels. The previously mentioned weakening/splitting upper level trough will shift well north of the area today into early Monday. While previously this system looked like it could bring an few showers to far northern Utah, the latest ensemble guidance suite suggests a less than 5 percent chance of any measurable precipitation in association with this system.
Monday will continue the warming trend, with temperatures increasing another 3-5 degrees across the CWA Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
A stronger upper level trough will cross into PACNW by early Monday. This system will dig into the Interior West and strengthen, with a period of frontogenesis well timed with broad upper level diffluence across the Wasatch Front and adjacent northern mountains. The cold front is expected to cross the Wasatch Front around 10 AM - 2 PM Tuesday. If this period of frontogenesis does correlate with frontal passage across the Wasatch Front, snow levels in heavier precipitation may bring a mix of rain/snow or even a changeover to snow for the benches and perhaps even portions of the valley floor behind the cold front later Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon.
The most likely area for impacts, however, will be the northern mountains. Looking at the 25th to 75th percentile for snow totals, expect around 4 to 8 inches of snow for the upper Cottonwoods, with less for the remainder of the northern mountains. It should be noted that models have been trending upward with amounts (due partially to the previously mentioned period of frontogenesis in combination with post-frontal northwest flow).
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday)...As our next trough exits the region a ridge will start to build into the Great Basin on Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions with temperatures warming back to near normal for this time of year.
Guidance is in good agreement regarding a Gulf of Alaska trough moving onto the west coast towards the end of the week. However, there are a couple of scenarios that could play out with the trajectory. Right now, 55% of ensemble members progress this trough through the Great Basin by next weekend. The remaining 45% of membership have a slower inland progression of the trough, potentially even morphing into a closed low off the coast of California.
As the trough approaches southwesterly flow will start to increase, resulting in surface southerly winds increasing towards the end of the week. Ensemble mean H7 temperatures are around -9C.
These temperatures are similar to the temperatures associated with the past several troughs that have moved through the area.
This would likely result in valley rain and mountain snow with snow mixing in down to valley floors, at times, especially under heavier precipitation rates. Details on QPF amounts, snow levels, and surface temperatures will get ironed out as guidance converges on a solution in the coming days.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will persist through the period for the KSLC terminal. Scattered high clouds and dry conditions will continue with light southerly winds transitioning to light northerly winds during the day.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for most of the airspace through the period with the exception of some brief patchy fog possible (30% chance) across Heber and Cache Valley during the morning hours. Otherwise, scattered high clouds and dry conditions will continue through the period with light and variable winds.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
For today, expect temperatures to continue to gradually warm to near to above normal levels. The previously mentioned weakening/splitting upper level trough will shift well north of the area today into early Monday. While previously this system looked like it could bring an few showers to far northern Utah, the latest ensemble guidance suite suggests a less than 5 percent chance of any measurable precipitation in association with this system.
Monday will continue the warming trend, with temperatures increasing another 3-5 degrees across the CWA Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
A stronger upper level trough will cross into PACNW by early Monday. This system will dig into the Interior West and strengthen, with a period of frontogenesis well timed with broad upper level diffluence across the Wasatch Front and adjacent northern mountains. The cold front is expected to cross the Wasatch Front around 10 AM - 2 PM Tuesday. If this period of frontogenesis does correlate with frontal passage across the Wasatch Front, snow levels in heavier precipitation may bring a mix of rain/snow or even a changeover to snow for the benches and perhaps even portions of the valley floor behind the cold front later Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon.
The most likely area for impacts, however, will be the northern mountains. Looking at the 25th to 75th percentile for snow totals, expect around 4 to 8 inches of snow for the upper Cottonwoods, with less for the remainder of the northern mountains. It should be noted that models have been trending upward with amounts (due partially to the previously mentioned period of frontogenesis in combination with post-frontal northwest flow).
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday)...As our next trough exits the region a ridge will start to build into the Great Basin on Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions with temperatures warming back to near normal for this time of year.
Guidance is in good agreement regarding a Gulf of Alaska trough moving onto the west coast towards the end of the week. However, there are a couple of scenarios that could play out with the trajectory. Right now, 55% of ensemble members progress this trough through the Great Basin by next weekend. The remaining 45% of membership have a slower inland progression of the trough, potentially even morphing into a closed low off the coast of California.
As the trough approaches southwesterly flow will start to increase, resulting in surface southerly winds increasing towards the end of the week. Ensemble mean H7 temperatures are around -9C.
These temperatures are similar to the temperatures associated with the past several troughs that have moved through the area.
This would likely result in valley rain and mountain snow with snow mixing in down to valley floors, at times, especially under heavier precipitation rates. Details on QPF amounts, snow levels, and surface temperatures will get ironed out as guidance converges on a solution in the coming days.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will persist through the period for the KSLC terminal. Scattered high clouds and dry conditions will continue with light southerly winds transitioning to light northerly winds during the day.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for most of the airspace through the period with the exception of some brief patchy fog possible (30% chance) across Heber and Cache Valley during the morning hours. Otherwise, scattered high clouds and dry conditions will continue through the period with light and variable winds.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KOGD
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KOGD
Wind History Graph: OGD
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of northern rockey
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