Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ogden, UT
March 28, 2024 5:11 AM MDT (11:11 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:14 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 10:38 PM Moonset 7:39 AM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 280957 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 357 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A potent cold front will move into northern Utah this afternoon before stalling and weakening over northern Utah this evening. Cool and stormy conditions will then persist through early next week as a Pacific trough impacts the area.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...High pressure is moving over the central United States as a trough spins near the Pacific Northwest coast. An ejecting wave out ahead of the trough has brought a cold front into Nevada this morning, with a decent band of precipitation accompanying it. Ahead of the boundary, winds are starting to pick up over Utah and southwest Wyoming, and will continue to do so through the morning. Winds will be strongest in west central and southwest Utah, where a Wind Advisory is currently in effect. Anticipating a good amount of gusts in excess of 40 mph as these winds peak during the day, which will result in some travel difficulties.
The front is on track to slide across northern Utah during the afternoon into the early evening, undergoing frontogenesis as it does so. As a result, a potent line of valley rain/mountain snow with a few embedded thunderstorms will make its way across the area, with some heavy rates anticipated along the band. The heavy snow (with a high chance of rates in excess of an inch an hour)
will bring noticeable travel difficulties to the higher terrain of northern Utah along with some significant accumulations. Going Winter Weather Advisory covers this threat well. There is a medium chance the rates will be high enough to lower snow levels down to the benches, with a low chance (20 percent or so) of some flakes in the valleys.
By the evening, the front is expected to make its way into central Utah before stalling and weakening. Associated precipitation will diminish significantly during the evening and overnight hours, but some precipitation will still persist along the band. The associated Pacific Northwest trough is expected to remain fairly stationary as the initial front moves through. However, by Friday morning there is high confidence that the low will merge with another low moving toward the California coast. As this merger occurs, the system will link up with the stalled boundary and push it back northward as a warm front Friday afternoon and evening.
This will bring some initial accumulations, but these will be generally on the light side.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...On Saturday, a deep positive tilted trough will be digging southward along the California coast.
Associated with this, a somewhat diffuse baroclinic zone will remain draped from southwest to northeast across Utah, with guidance suggesting somewhere possibly near the I-15 corridor or so. This boundary looks to initially retreat north/westward through the day, though given it'll be dependent on how/where the larger trough moves, it's exact position and motion remains a bit uncertain. While this boundary will likely serve as a focus for a bit more precipitation, strong moisture/energy advection within southwesterly flow on the leading edge of the trough will be sufficient for widespread scattered precipitation across much of the state regardless. On the warmer side of the boundary (south central into southeast Utah), enhanced H7 flow will promote gusty surface winds, with afternoon gusts likely in the 30-50 mph range.
Later in the day on into Saturday night, the Pacific trough looks to begin to pivot inland. As it does so, baroclinicity along the boundary becomes enhanced, and jet support becomes maximized especially across portions of southwestern Utah. With a bit more residence time of these favorable ingredients, a period of higher precipitation rates are expected, and as a result a marginal risk of excessive rainfall is realized across the southwestern most corner of the state. For higher elevations, this will translate to a period of heavy snowfall with rates potentially exceeding an inch per hour, especially for orographically favored mountains in the strong southwesterly flow.
Moving through Sunday, the baroclinic zone advances west to east across Utah as the trough continues its inland trajectory. As it does so, once again anticipate a period of more focused precipitation along/near the cold frontal boundary. Colder H7 temperatures will also begin to lower snow levels following the frontal passage, though as a whole conditions look mild enough to generally favor valley rain and mountain snow. That said, higher elevation mountain valleys such as the Wasatch Back will see some potential for some light accumulations, especially with any rate driven cooling and associated lowering of snow level. Precipitation will gradually become less widespread moving overnight through Monday as deep layer moisture decreases, and forcing becomes more instability driven as the trough axis moves overhead.
Overall the evolution of the flow through this period remains a bit more complex than a more typical trough progression, and thus uncertainty in specific amounts/timing/etc. remain a bit higher than usual. Still, good confidence is noted on a generally wet and cooler pattern through the weekend. If nothing else, mountains still see favorable odds to add a decent amount of water to the snowpack, with total SWE from Saturday morning onward to event cessation ranging roughly 0.50"-1.50" (using NBM 25th to 75th percentile QPF). Locally up to 2.00" of water will be possible at some of the more typically favored locations such as the Tushars or Upper Cottonwoods.
Moving towards the middle of the week, deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to generally favor a transition to milder/drier weather with ridging nosing in from the west, despite a trailing lobe of the trough lingering into the Desert Southwest. Towards the back half of the work week however, models diverge fairly evenly on whether the ridge remains dominant or if things trend back towards more unsettled weather.
AVIATION
KSLC...Gusty southerly winds increase through Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. A few prefrontal showers are possible, with frontal timing most likely ~20-22Z or so. A period of gusty northwest winds, rain (~20% chance of lightning), and MVFR conditions are likely to accompany the initial frontal push. Lingering rain showers and gradually improving conditions expected thereafter into the evening, with activity becoming increasing isolated overnight into early Friday, and winds relaxing and shifting back southerly.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
An approaching cold frontal boundary will result in increasingly gusty southerly winds at most area terminals. At northern terminals, will also see shower chances increase through the morning ahead of the front. The front is expected to push through northern terminals through the early afternoon, bringing a switch to northwesterly winds, and a period of reduced conditions most likely to MVFR. At far northern or more elevated terminals (i.e. EVW/LGU/HCR), chance of snow mixing in will yield associated chance for further reduced conditions to IFR at times of heaviest precip. Conditions gradually improve through the evening following frontal passage, with decreasing precipitation chances. With the front expected to stall somewhere across central Utah, southern terminals primary impact will remain continued stronger southerly winds.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ110.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ111-112.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for UTZ113.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ115-122.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 357 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A potent cold front will move into northern Utah this afternoon before stalling and weakening over northern Utah this evening. Cool and stormy conditions will then persist through early next week as a Pacific trough impacts the area.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...High pressure is moving over the central United States as a trough spins near the Pacific Northwest coast. An ejecting wave out ahead of the trough has brought a cold front into Nevada this morning, with a decent band of precipitation accompanying it. Ahead of the boundary, winds are starting to pick up over Utah and southwest Wyoming, and will continue to do so through the morning. Winds will be strongest in west central and southwest Utah, where a Wind Advisory is currently in effect. Anticipating a good amount of gusts in excess of 40 mph as these winds peak during the day, which will result in some travel difficulties.
The front is on track to slide across northern Utah during the afternoon into the early evening, undergoing frontogenesis as it does so. As a result, a potent line of valley rain/mountain snow with a few embedded thunderstorms will make its way across the area, with some heavy rates anticipated along the band. The heavy snow (with a high chance of rates in excess of an inch an hour)
will bring noticeable travel difficulties to the higher terrain of northern Utah along with some significant accumulations. Going Winter Weather Advisory covers this threat well. There is a medium chance the rates will be high enough to lower snow levels down to the benches, with a low chance (20 percent or so) of some flakes in the valleys.
By the evening, the front is expected to make its way into central Utah before stalling and weakening. Associated precipitation will diminish significantly during the evening and overnight hours, but some precipitation will still persist along the band. The associated Pacific Northwest trough is expected to remain fairly stationary as the initial front moves through. However, by Friday morning there is high confidence that the low will merge with another low moving toward the California coast. As this merger occurs, the system will link up with the stalled boundary and push it back northward as a warm front Friday afternoon and evening.
This will bring some initial accumulations, but these will be generally on the light side.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...On Saturday, a deep positive tilted trough will be digging southward along the California coast.
Associated with this, a somewhat diffuse baroclinic zone will remain draped from southwest to northeast across Utah, with guidance suggesting somewhere possibly near the I-15 corridor or so. This boundary looks to initially retreat north/westward through the day, though given it'll be dependent on how/where the larger trough moves, it's exact position and motion remains a bit uncertain. While this boundary will likely serve as a focus for a bit more precipitation, strong moisture/energy advection within southwesterly flow on the leading edge of the trough will be sufficient for widespread scattered precipitation across much of the state regardless. On the warmer side of the boundary (south central into southeast Utah), enhanced H7 flow will promote gusty surface winds, with afternoon gusts likely in the 30-50 mph range.
Later in the day on into Saturday night, the Pacific trough looks to begin to pivot inland. As it does so, baroclinicity along the boundary becomes enhanced, and jet support becomes maximized especially across portions of southwestern Utah. With a bit more residence time of these favorable ingredients, a period of higher precipitation rates are expected, and as a result a marginal risk of excessive rainfall is realized across the southwestern most corner of the state. For higher elevations, this will translate to a period of heavy snowfall with rates potentially exceeding an inch per hour, especially for orographically favored mountains in the strong southwesterly flow.
Moving through Sunday, the baroclinic zone advances west to east across Utah as the trough continues its inland trajectory. As it does so, once again anticipate a period of more focused precipitation along/near the cold frontal boundary. Colder H7 temperatures will also begin to lower snow levels following the frontal passage, though as a whole conditions look mild enough to generally favor valley rain and mountain snow. That said, higher elevation mountain valleys such as the Wasatch Back will see some potential for some light accumulations, especially with any rate driven cooling and associated lowering of snow level. Precipitation will gradually become less widespread moving overnight through Monday as deep layer moisture decreases, and forcing becomes more instability driven as the trough axis moves overhead.
Overall the evolution of the flow through this period remains a bit more complex than a more typical trough progression, and thus uncertainty in specific amounts/timing/etc. remain a bit higher than usual. Still, good confidence is noted on a generally wet and cooler pattern through the weekend. If nothing else, mountains still see favorable odds to add a decent amount of water to the snowpack, with total SWE from Saturday morning onward to event cessation ranging roughly 0.50"-1.50" (using NBM 25th to 75th percentile QPF). Locally up to 2.00" of water will be possible at some of the more typically favored locations such as the Tushars or Upper Cottonwoods.
Moving towards the middle of the week, deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to generally favor a transition to milder/drier weather with ridging nosing in from the west, despite a trailing lobe of the trough lingering into the Desert Southwest. Towards the back half of the work week however, models diverge fairly evenly on whether the ridge remains dominant or if things trend back towards more unsettled weather.
AVIATION
KSLC...Gusty southerly winds increase through Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. A few prefrontal showers are possible, with frontal timing most likely ~20-22Z or so. A period of gusty northwest winds, rain (~20% chance of lightning), and MVFR conditions are likely to accompany the initial frontal push. Lingering rain showers and gradually improving conditions expected thereafter into the evening, with activity becoming increasing isolated overnight into early Friday, and winds relaxing and shifting back southerly.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
An approaching cold frontal boundary will result in increasingly gusty southerly winds at most area terminals. At northern terminals, will also see shower chances increase through the morning ahead of the front. The front is expected to push through northern terminals through the early afternoon, bringing a switch to northwesterly winds, and a period of reduced conditions most likely to MVFR. At far northern or more elevated terminals (i.e. EVW/LGU/HCR), chance of snow mixing in will yield associated chance for further reduced conditions to IFR at times of heaviest precip. Conditions gradually improve through the evening following frontal passage, with decreasing precipitation chances. With the front expected to stall somewhere across central Utah, southern terminals primary impact will remain continued stronger southerly winds.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ110.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ111-112.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for UTZ113.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ115-122.
WY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KOGD OGDENHINCKLEY,UT | 1 sm | 18 min | SSE 16G25 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 27°F | 37% | 29.88 | |
KHIF HILL AFB,UT | 6 sm | 16 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 25°F | 40% | 29.86 | |
KBMC BRIGHAM CITY RGNL,UT | 24 sm | 21 min | SSW 15G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 29.90 |
Salt Lake City, UT,
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