Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fishers Island, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Remaining blustery and cold tonight. Other than a stray flurry, dry conditions persist. Forecast on track and previous discussion follows.

With the low and mid lvl flow just N of W, it seems unlikely that lake moisture will spill into the cwa early this eve.
However, with the upr trof passing a bit later, did maintain the mention of chc flurries despite the relatively high cloud bases around 4000 ft. Deep subsidence aft 4-6Z with some decreasing clouds overnight as a result. Stuck close to the NBM for temps with the winds keeping things mixed.

Wind chills in the single digits most areas overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Sct-bkn flat cu is likely to develop on Wed with steep llvl lapse rates. With more of a nwly flow, cannot completely rule out as stray flurry making it down to the cwa, however, the chances are too low attm to include in the fcst.

Continued windy with h85 around 30kt. This should produce gusts around 25 mph, so bumped up the gust factor in the grids to account for this. Otherwise, NBM temps seemed reasonable so were used for highs.

The cycle repeats for Wed ngt with lessening clouds again. Winds will decrease, particularly late, as the weakening high ridges into the cwa. Went with the NBM and typical local adjustments for lows, which produces teens most areas. Wind chills in the single digits and teens.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
No significant changes to forecast thinking late this week into next.
The last in a series of shortwaves will drop across the Northeast Thursday with the associated frontal system dissipating to the west of the forecast area. Expect an increase in cloud cover during the afternoon and evening hours with perhaps a chance of flurries or a brief snow shower, otherwise dry conditions persist. The trough then lifts out into Friday morning with brief upper ridging and surface high pressure building across the area, allowing a brief warm up thru Saturday with 40s returning to coastal locales in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, Pacific energy that briefly breaks down the ridge across western Canada and the PNW, along with northern branch energy descending south across central Canada, will carve out a longwave trough encompassing much of the Lower 48 into early next week.
Guidance is in good agreement that progressive cold front along the leading edge of the trough tracks across the area Saturday afternoon/night. With milder air in place, rain showers likely in a strengthening deep-layered southerly flow.

A trailing wave along the arctic boundary may then attempt deepen as it slips off the Southeast coast Sunday into Sunday night, and it's not out of the question the region is grazed by the northern periphery of the moisture axis. Global ensemble systems keep this system weak however, and any associated QPF locally would be light.
Lots of solutions at thereafter into next week, though the underlying theme will be the invading arctic air, perhaps the coldest so far this season, settling in through at least mid next week.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Persistent pattern remains with low pressure to the north and east and high pressure to the south and west through the TAF period.

Gusty WNW-NW winds and VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Winds will be generally direction 290-310 through the TAF period with sustained wind speeds of near 15-20 kt and gusts near 25-30 kt.

Gusts have started to diminish a bit this evening but are expected to increase once again Wednesday morning. The strongest winds will be from late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. There may be a lull in the gusts overnight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts 3-5 kts higher than gusts in TAF are possible during the TAF period.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night: VFR. Gusty NW winds gradually diminish.

Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR.

Saturday: MVFR or lower at times with rain likely, possible snow at night. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Sunday: Chance for MVFR or lower at times with possible rain/snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds thru Wed with winds diminishing Wed ngt. A SCA is in effect for all waters thru the day on Wed, and might need to be extended into the eve on the ocean if seas remain aoa 5 ft. In addition, some lgt freezing spray remains possible thru Wed ngt with a colder airmass building in.

Expect sub-SCA conditions as a frontal system dissipates to the west on Thursday and high pressure builds over the area on Friday. A strong frontal system moving into the area will be preceded by a strengthening S/SW flow that could lead to 25 kt gusts Saturday.
Ocean seas may build toward 5 ft by Sunday.

HYDROLOGY
No significant hydrologic impacts expected into early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.