Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saybrook Manor, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Temperatures across outlying areas were a few degrees colder than the previous forecast. With mostly clear skies (except across eastern portions of southern CT and the Twin Forks of Long Island) as well as a fresh snow pack, expect temperatures to continue to fall through the night. Therefore, lowered minimum temperatures a few degrees across the outlying areas as well, with locations well inland seeing subzero lows tonight (KMGJ was already down to 2 degrees at 9 pm, so there is the potential for even colder than what is currently forecast).
Otherwise, forecast is on track.

An upper trough dominating eastern North America will result in the coldest airmass thus far this winter season. Deepening low pressure lifts north of the Canadian Maritimes tonight, while arctic high pressure over the Plains bleeds eastwards across the Mid Atlantic states. This will result in a gradually weakening WNW flow. Some instability stratocu this evening will eventually dissipate. While there is a snowpack and anomalously cold airmass across the region, radiational cooling will be limited by 5-10kt of wind. If some locations do decouple, lows could drop to around zero across the interior and the Pine Barrens Region of LI. For the time, expect lows in the single digits inland and 10 to 15 along the coast.

In terms of zone averages, wind chill values are expected to remain short of cold weather advisory criteria, which is -10 degrees F or lower for all but LI and the metro NYC, where it is -5 degrees F or lower. Values will not be too far off.
Isolated locations could reach -10 degree to -13 degree wind chills across parts of the interior and could reach -5 degree to -9 degree wind chills along parts of the coast outside of NYC. However, most wind chills expected to be around zero degrees along the coast and from near zero to -5 degrees across the interior.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Another piece of energy pivoting eastward through the longwave upper trough will lift across the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will maintain an airmass that is about 10-15 degrees below normal with highs in the upper teens to around 20 both Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows Tuesday night near zero inland, single digits at the coast, and around 10 for the NYC metro. This will be another night that optimal radiational cooling will be limited by winds staying up just a bit and a period of cloudiness to start the night. The backing of the upper flow ahead of the incoming upper trough will expand the cloud shield north and west of a frontal system well offshore during the daytime hours Tuesday. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies by afternoon. There is a chance that some anafrontal precipitation offshore could work close to the east end of LI for a low chance of light snow during the evening hours Tuesday.
This chance will be short-lived though as the clouds will work quickly back offshore during the late evening into early morning hours as the upper trough axis approaches. The latter of which will send a reinforcing cold air into the region for Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Main jet stream south of the region and mid level trough in the Northeast will remain in the regional weather pattern Wednesday night through Friday night. The pattern shifts thereafter to more zonal aloft and less of a trough structure going into the weekend. A shortwave trough approaches next Monday.

At the surface, the arctic cold airmass across the region midweek will begin to moderate towards the end of this week. The low level winds weaken midweek and then more of a SW flow develops.
Temperatures first get to near to above freezing for some eastern parts of the region Thursday and then much of the region Friday.
Temperatures rise more into the 30s this weekend into next Monday, potentially reaching lower 40s on Sunday and for next Monday.

Regarding the low temperatures, much of the region in single digits to teens Wednesday night and Thursday night, followed by mostly in the teens Friday night. For the nights thereafter, lows forecast are more in the 20s for a majority of the region. While winds will be light, wind chills still will be several degrees less than actual temperatures. Some sub-zero wind chills in the forecast Wednesday night across parts of the interior with otherwise single digits to near 10 for Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night for much of the area. Wind chills mostly in the teens for the nights thereafter during the weekend for the local region.

An area of low pressure passes offshore Thursday night. This is expected to remain far enough offshore but some forecast models show a closer approach, bringing a slight chance of snow along the southeast coastal sections of the local region Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Mainly dry conditions are expected however.

Another surface low pressure area approaches from the west next Monday along with an accompanying cold front. There are timing differences between forecast models with the timing and movement of the low pressure and front. This will allow for a another slight chance of snow as wet bulb cooling and thicknesses show more snow compared to rain. However, forecast models do not have much moisture associated with the front, with some models keeping the area dry.

Max temperature forecast on Thursday, NBM/NBM50 blend, which is slightly cooler than NBM. Otherwise, NBM followed for the temperature forecast during the long term.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR as high pressure builds from the west.

W to NW flow around 10 kt or less for the remainder of the forecast period. Otherwise, winds will remain W to NW through the forecast period at 10 kt or less.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected. Isolated gusts of 15 to 20 kt is possible during the day Tuesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday night through Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt NYC metro/coastal terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
WNW winds will gradually diminish through this evening with SCAs only remaining for the ocean, where there are some residual higher seas. Non-ocean zones expected to remain below SCA thresholds tonight. The ocean SCA remains in effect through all of tonight and into very early Tuesday. High pressure will then continue to gradually build in with sub-SCA conditions through midweek for all waters.

Expecting well below SCA criteria with weak pressure gradient and high pressure moving overhead Wednesday night into Thursday for all waters. Return SW flow develops thereafter with continued sub-SCA conditions for all waters. Forecast has a potential return to SCA conditions across the ocean waters for the weekend, more probable for Sunday. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions will continue for non-ocean waters.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues anticipated.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ350- 353-355.