Wednesday, August4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Niantic, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:03PM Wednesday August 4, 2021 3:40 PM EDT (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 1:50AMMoonset 5:32PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 1240 Pm Edt Wed Aug 4 2021
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of showers early, then showers likely late.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1240 Pm Edt Wed Aug 4 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will remain over new england today as a frontal boundary offshore draws closer into this evening. This front is then expected to lie near eastern long island and southeast connecticut tonight into Thursday as waves of low pressure track along it. The front moves offshore Thursday night into Friday. High pressure southwest of the region then assumes control through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niantic, CT
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location: 41.23, -72.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 041805 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 205 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain over New England today as a frontal boundary offshore draws closer into this evening. This front is then expected to lie near eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut tonight into Thursday as waves of low pressure track along it. The front moves offshore Thursday night into Friday. High pressure southwest of the region then assumes control through the weekend and into the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Progress of offshore showers associated with a frontal boundary making slow progress to the north and have continued to delay onset across far eastern LI and SE CT.

The latest CAMs continue to show this area continuing to work slowly northwest through the afternoon, mainly confined to the eastern half of LI and SE CT. This looks to be a light rainfall event. However, the potential for a bout of heavy rainfall across these same locations, perhaps even a bit farther west, is not expected to late tonight. The western extent and magnitude of the rainfall are still uncertainties.

A subtropical feed of moisture in the upper levels will continue bringing mostly cloudy to overcast conditions through the day. A relatively broad upper trough will slowly approach through this evening. At the same time, western Atlantic ridging amplifies a bit. These features will assist in bringing a frontal boundary to the south and east closer to the region through the day. A wave of low pressure develops along the front across the southeast coast, and will slowly lift north into the evening.

Much of the daytime hours will remain dry across the remainder of the forecast area. Forecast soundings are indicating some dry air to overcome due to the proximity of the surface high across New England.

Highs today will be below normal in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The main concern for tonight is how far west an axis of heavy rainfall will occur. Model guidance continues to indicate potential for moderate to heavy showers pushing into eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut as the aforementioned low pressure and frontal boundary reach the area. Some model guidance has shown significant changes in just one cycle, which is leading to lower forecast confidence than usual for this time range. Synoptically speaking, the broad upper trough slowly shift towards the eastern seaboard. Multiple embedded shortwaves withing the deep moisture axis will move along the frontal boundary. One question continues to be how far west the boundary will ultimately get. This is important because the boundary is going to enhance moisture convergence and lift. There is also an approximately 100 kt jet streak that is forecast to move across New England tonight. The jet will enhance lift, especially where the front lies and low pressure tracks. Another issue lowering confidence is the timing when the heaviest rain will occur. Some of the CAMs have bands of heavy showers moving near eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut as early as around 00z Thu, while the latest HRRR is more towards 06z Thu. Global models may be suffering from some convective feedback given their QPF maxes, which could be impacting some of the mesoscale details.

Have followed the HREF mean, which seems to be a good consensus for QPF tonight and also for overall timing of the heavier rain. This yields totals through Thursday morning of about 1-2 inches of rain across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. There will be a sharp cutoff to the west, with amounts only a few hundredths to a tenth around NYC metro, and potentially just a trace further north and west. A shift west in the precip axis could bring higher amounts further west across Long Island and southeast Connecticut. A shift east would lower heavy rainfall potential. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out in any of the heavy downpours. After collaboration with BOX and WPC, decided to hold off on issued a Flash Flood Watch. If confidence increases on the day shift, then a flash flood watch may be issued across portions of southeast Connecticut and potentially eastern Long Island. WPC does have this area highlighted in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall. Localized flash flooding is a possibility, which will be highlighted in the HWO for now. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, any instability is elevated and weak.

The wave of low pressure and deep moisture should lift north and east Thursday morning, bringing an end to any lingering showers by midday. The upper trough axis looks to dampen out as it lifts towards the northeast late Thursday and Thursday night. This will effectively push the frontal boundary and moisture axis more offshore. A few lingering showers cannot be ruled out across eastern Long Island and SE CT in the evening. Otherwise, high pressure returns into Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Dry conditions are expected on Friday as weak high pressure from the west will begin to assume control of our weather. Heights gradually begin to rise and and overall warming trend is expected to begin.

On Saturday weak high pressure will remain just to the southwest. A shortwave will slide across the area, setting off the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Will continue to keep some low chance pops in the forecast Sunday and the first part of next week as diurnally driven storms will be possible with a warm and humid airmass in place.

Highs in the long term will be in the 80s and 90s. A SW flow should usher in higher dew points.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A frontal boundary will remain offshore with several waves of low pressure passing along it.

VFR for terminals near NYC and west through midnight. For eastern Terminals conditions will be gradually falling to MVFR east of the NYC terminals now through the overnight hours. The main question will be how far west the MVFR cigs reach. For now, will keep the city terminals VFR, however there is a chance that some MVFR cigs could reach JFK and KLGA after 00z Thursday.

Heavy showers are expected to stay east of the city this afternoon. The rain increases in intensity overnight tonight with some of the rain becoming locally heavy at times, especially at KISP and KGON. The best timing for the heaviest rain will be from about 02z- 06z. This window should be slightly longer at KGON, possibly as late as 09z. Lull in the rain likely after sunrise but near IFR cigs persist through mid morning.

Winds are expected to range from 010-100 with speeds generally at or around 10 kt. Winds should become remain northerly through the day with a chance of a southerly sea breeze near coastal terminals.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

MVFR cigs possible after 00z Thursday for the NYC terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Thu-Fri. becoming VFR everywhere Thursday morning. Sat-Sun. Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Monday. VFR

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through this afternoon. Building seas ahead of an approaching wave of low pressure will bring SCA conditions to the ocean tonight. Seas look to range from 5 to 6 ft. These elevated seas should linger into Thursday. The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from 6pm this evening through 6pm Thursday. A few wind gusts up to 25 kt cannot be ruled out on the ocean tonight as well, although winds may stay closer to 20 kt or less. Elevated ocean seas may linger into Thursday night.

Seas expected to subside below small craft Friday morning for the western ocean zones. By Friday afternoon sub small craft conditions will also become increasingly likely on the eastern ocean zones. The rest of the period should experience sub SCA conditions throughout all waters.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall amounts of 1 to around 2 inches are forecast late tonight into Thursday morning across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Locally higher amounts are possible in these areas. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is possible with a localized risk of flash flooding. Amounts should drop off significantly to the west with only light amounts along and west of the Hudson River corridor.

No hydrologic concerns are anticipated from Thursday afternoon through early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches today. There is a moderate risk across NYC ocean beaches Thursday, with a high risk across Nassau and Suffolk ocean beaches.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . BC/DS NEAR TERM . DS/DW SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . BC AVIATION . DJ MARINE . BC/DS HYDROLOGY . BC/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 10 mi61 min SE 8 G 8.9 70°F 1020.1 hPa56°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 12 mi59 min 70°F 69°F1022.5 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi53 min 68°F 71°F1022.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 23 mi161 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 73°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi53 min ESE 4.1 G 7 71°F 73°F1022.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 38 mi41 min ESE 14 G 16 67°F 1021.2 hPa64°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT12 mi45 minSE 710.00 miOvercast70°F63°F79%1021.7 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi46 minESE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F63°F73%1021.7 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi47 minVar 3 mi69°F65°F87%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7SE5SE8SE5SE7
1 day agoNW10W9NW6N8NW4N3CalmCalmN3N4N4N4N4N4N3N5N4NW3CalmS33CalmSW4S4
2 days agoS10S9SE9SE8SE8S6SE5CalmS4SE3CalmNW5N3N3CalmCalmNW7NW7NW12
G17
NW9N14NW14W14N13
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island Sound, New York
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Plum Gut Harbor
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Wed -- 01:45 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:41 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.50.81.21.51.92.12.22.11.81.51.20.80.711.52.12.52.932.82.52

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
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Wed -- 12:23 AM EDT     -2.97 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:45 PM EDT     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:52 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:38 PM EDT     2.29 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:36 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.9-2.8-2.1-1.10.21.4221.60.6-0.6-1.5-2.2-2.4-1.8-10.21.42.22.31.90.8-0.5-1.7

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