Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Branford Center, CT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Generally tranquil conditions are expected today with a departing trough pulling east of the area with higher heights building in from the west. High pressure builds south of the area, resulting in mostly sunny conditions with highs today in the middle to upper 80s. While no PoPs are in the forecast today and this evening, an isolated shower can't be entirely ruled out. A developing SW flow this afternoon and tonight will advect moisture back into the area.

There is substantial uncertainty with the possible development of a convective MCS that rides over the northern portion of the developing ridge. Some CAMs indicate that this MCS that develops over southern Canada this afternoon may quickly traverse through the Northeast and may approach the area from the north sometimes late tonight into Sunday morning. Despite the indication fro a select few models, opted to not go higher than a slight chance as the potential MCS is expected to rapidly weaken as it approaches, if it even is able to. Best chance to see any sort of precipitation would be for areas north and east, but once again, confidence in the occurrence of this is much lower than normal at this time frame.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
* Extreme Heat Warning for much of the region from Sunday afternoon through 8 PM Tuesday including NYC.

* Heat Advisory is now in effect for Sunday and an Extreme Heat Watch on Monday and Tuesday remains, for portions of Long Island, and coastal Middlesex and New London Counties.

By Sunday morning, the development of the ridge will be well underway with heights continuing to rise aloft and high pressure strengthening to the south. The uncertainty of any morning cloud cover or showers from a potential decaying MCS approaching from the north may result in a temperature forecast that is too high for Sunday, but given the drier forecast, Sunday is expected to be the beginning of what may very well be a record setting heatwave for some locations.

SW flow will continue to allow an advection of low level moisture Sunday so that dew points climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s. As the ridge axis approaches the area on Sunday, heights aloft will continue to increase resulting in generally warmer air aloft. This should mix down enough to allow surface temperatures to climb into the 90s for much of the area. Some of the hottest spots near the NYC metro may approach 100 degrees.
Heat index values will be generally 100-105 for much of the area. For areas closer to the coast, heat index values of 95-100 will be expected.

The heat continues on Monday with temperatures even hotter than Sunday. High temperatures are expected to once again be in the 90s though upper 90s is expected for most immediately away from the coast. Temperatures in the low 100s are possible for NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Heat Index values Monday will peak in the 105- 110 range inland and 95-105 along the coast.

Lows at night will not offer much relief as low temperatures will only be in the 70s with more urban locations possibly not dropping below 80.

Given the expected excessive heat, the Extreme Heat Watch that was in effect for NYC has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning for Sunday through Tuesday. The highest heat index values will occur each afternoon, but especially on Monday and Tuesday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Messages:

* At least one more day of extreme heat/humidity for Tuesday.

* Not quite as hot/humid on Wednesday, but there is still some potential for Wed to be almost as hot as Tue.

* Cold front sagging near/into the area may bring some relief later in the week.

An anomalously strong heat ridge (H5 heights 599 dm) over the Mid Atlantic region to start will very slowly shift south and weaken through the period in response to a closed low over the Atlantic and shortwave energy streaming across Canada. This will eventually allow a cold front to sag southward during mid to late week with chances for diurnal convection.

Tue should be another very hot day, with high temps at or over 100 in NE NJ and parts of the CT River valley, mid/upper 90s most elsewhere, and cooler near the water in SE CT and across the forks/south shore of Long Island. Afternoon dewpoints should lower somewhat via vertical mixing into the mid/upper 60s, but given the expected heat, max heat index values should surpass 105 in many inland spots, reach 100-104 in NYC/western Long Island/coastal CT, and the mid/upper 90s most elsewhere except maybe the south fork of Long Island. The above numbers come from straight NBM guidance; was reluctant to go with a blend of the NBM and its 90th percentile which has worked better for high temps recently because its numbers get very close to all time high temps at some interior climate sites such as EWR and POU/BDL just outside our CWA This looks overdone given model fcst H8 temps, which better support the straight NBM guidance.

Wed still looks hot/humid with high temps at least 90-95 for NYC metro and away from the coast, with heat index values 95-100.
There is some uncertainty here, so there is still potential for this day to be nearly as hot as Tue since NWP guidance often under- predicts temps on the last day of heat ahead of approaching cold fronts.

Have cautiously higher confidence in temps/heat index values Thu/Fri below warning/advy criteria with the front likely remaining in the vicinity, bringing diurnal convection both days.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR with high pressure in control.

Light NW-WSW flow to start should become SW-S 5-10 kt into the late morning and afternoon. Sea breeze development 10-15 kt is likely at the coastal terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

S-SE harbor breeze should hold just E of KEWR this afternoon, but may make it in there and at KTEB toward 00Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: Slight chance of showers/tstms mainly in the morning.
WSW-SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Chance of showers/tstms in the afternoon/evening mainly for KHPN/KSWF.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Other than some 5-ft seas late day Sunday into Sunday evening for the ocean waters E of Moriches Inlet, sub-SCA conditions expected through Wed night. Ocean seas should settle in around 2 ft on Monday.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the rest of the forecast period with dry conditions prevailing.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Low risk for rip currents for all ocean beaches with a diminished swell and lower offshore wave heights. With an increase in swell and wave heights out east look for a moderate risk on Sunday for Nassau and Suffolk beaches, with a lower risk for Brooklyn and Queens.

CLIMATE
Increasing heat may result in record high temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

Sunday's Record Highs (June 22): EWR 101 / 1988 BDR 93 / 1949 NYC 98 / 1988 LGA 99 / 1988 JFK 94 / 2012 ISP 94 / 2012

Monday's Record Highs (June 23): EWR 99 / 2024 BDR 91 / 2010 NYC 96 / 1888 LGA 95 / 2024 and previous years JFK 94 / 2010 ISP 91 / 1999

Tuesday's Record Highs (June 24): EWR 97 / 1966 BDR 94 / 1966 NYC 96 / 1888 LGA 96 / 2013 JFK 97 / 2010 ISP 96 / 1966

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday for CTZ005>012.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>010.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ011-012.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for CTZ011-012.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>075-176-178.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ078-080-177- 179.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NYZ078-080-177-179.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.