Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Branford Center, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Gradually lowering humidity through early next week with temperatures remaining above normal.

2) The next chance for showers/thunderstorms returns Monday afternoon and evening, and may persist each day through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
The forecast area will reside in the westerlies through the upcoming week with a series of shortwave troughs swinging through the area. While the vertical temperature profile changes little into early next week with 85H temps holding close to 18C, a deep-layered westerly flow should be able to mix down some drier air into the low levels. While the NBM has done well of late with surface dew points, it is often too deficient in a westerly flow. For dew points Sunday into Monday stayed below the NBM and weighted toward MOS. This keeps heat indices generally below 95. Thus, plan to hold off on extending the heat advisory into Sunday. Regardless, it would be very marginal, perhaps touching 95 in a few spots.

Temperatures and heat indices will lower Tuesday through mid week.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast Monday afternoon/evening. The air mass is not as humid on Monday, but increasing mid level flow may support an isolated severe thunderstorm, mainly in NJ. A frontal system slowly moving across the area Tuesday into mid week supporting continued chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weak trough of low pressure lingers over the terminals through Sunday before gradually pushing east Sunday night into Monday.

VFR through the TAF period.

SW winds 10 kt or less this evening will diminish overnight, becoming W around 5 kt by day break. W-WNW winds increase Sunday morning to 10-13 kt Sunday afternoon. Coastal terminals may back more to the SW in the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind speeds could be a few kt higher at times through 04z.

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible at EWR, TEB, and LGA Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night: VFR.

Monday Night: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR in the evening.

Tuesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Low probability of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening each day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: SW flow and associated wind waves will lead to a moderate rip current risk through Sunday. A diminishing swell will result in a low risk for Monday

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...None.