Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fenwick, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
No significant changes with this update.

Mainly skc tngt as the low clouds across upstate NY and nrn New England are modeled to stay out of the cwa. A few could bleed into nrn CT zones as well as the Hudson Valley zones at times.
Otherwise, lightening winds but overall there is still expected to be some at least light flow thru the ngt. This will attempt to limit the cooling potential. The NBM was adjusted down to the colder MET and MAV guidance, but even these numbers are 36-37 in the coldest interior spots. As a result, only some patchy frost was included in the fcst and no advy issued attm.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Dry wx thru the period. Subsidence and good mixing will allow for a warmup of around 30 degrees in spots. Mostly sunny with perhaps so cirrus filtering in late in the day. Winds back thru the day and into the aftn, becoming wly and lasting thru Fri ngt. The winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front Fri ngt, primarily along the immediate shore. Elsewhere winds will be less, but the gradient is expected to produce at least some wind. This wind, along with an increase in cirrus, is progged to keep temps significantly milder than Thu ngt. Stuck with the NBM for lows in this flow regime.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
There are no significant changes to the long term forecast, with the exception of a slightly delayed cold front passage Monday. Otherwise, a couple of northern stream systems will move across the region Saturday, and Sunday into Monday. The first will be a dry cold front that moves through Saturday. The next system will be associated with an amplifying trough evolving into a closed low over southern Canada into the northern Great Lakes, and amplifying into the upper Midwest and into the east coast into the middle of next week. The cold front Saturday stalls south of the region and move back north as a warm front on Sunday. The track of the surface low is across the northern portion of the region, and with this more northerly track warmer air will move into the region behind the warm front Sunday.
Then the cold front with this low tracks across the region during Monday. The coldest airmass of the early fall season will move into the region behind this cold front, and with a re enforcing trough late Tuesday, the cold air will be across the region Tuesday through Wednesday night. Then surface high pressure builds to the south and a return flow sets up with temperatures moderating for Thursday. Areas of frost will be possible Monday night across the Lower Hudson Valley, with a more widespread frost possible Tuesday night and Wednesday night across much of the interior.

Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with lows near, to a few degrees above normal. Then temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal Tuesday through Wednesday night.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure builds through Friday morning, settling nearby late in the day.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds remain NW this evening and overnight, generally near or under 10 kt for city terminals, and closer to 5 kt for the non city terminals. Speed resume near 10 kt for most terminals by late Friday morning, backing W or WNW into early afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. W winds, becoming SW for some terminals.

Saturday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20kt during the day.

Sunday: VFR for much of the day, SE / S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers with possible MVFR late and mainly at night.

Monday: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR possible early in showers. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt, with gusts 15 to 20 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
NW winds tngt are expected to remain just blw sca lvls, with seas generally 2-4 ft. Winds and seas blw sca lvls on Fri, then increase to around criteria Fri ngt ahead of an approaching front, especially on the ocean.

Small craft advisory conditions will likely be on-going Saturday morning across the ocean waters, and the central and eastern Long Island Sound waters with a gusty westerly flow, and ocean seas around 5 feet. A dry cold front passage early Saturday will bring a northwest flow across the waters and conditions improve during the day, falling below advisory levels by late afternoon. Sub advisory conditions will be short-lived as a wave of low pressure approaches from the west Sunday, and an increasing southerly flow sets up. Ocean seas may build back up to 5 feet by late day Sunday, with gusts increasing Sunday evening to 25 kt. Small craft conditions continue on the ocean waters until another cold front passage Monday, with small craft conditions ending during Monday night, possibly as late as Tuesday morning across the eastern waters. Timing of the improving conditions will be dependent on the timing of the cold frontal passage Monday.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.