Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fenwick, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Quick moving low pressure passes to the north Tuesday into Wednesday.

2) Minor coastal flood benchmarks could be briefly reached along some vulnerable portions of the coastline during the Tuesday morning/early afternoon high tide cycle.

3) A strong frontal system could produce thunderstorms on Friday, then strong winds and much colder temperatures over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

As the low that impacted the area yesterday continues to move east, high pressure over SE Canada will try to nose in from the northeast into tomorrow, providing for a backdoor cold front that pushes into the area Tuesday morning. The cloud cover and cooler air associated with this airmass will keep temperatures over the easternmost areas cooler than the western areas where mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions should persist under a lighter and more SE flow. Highs for the western CWA on Tuesday will be into the low to middle 70s with eastern locations likely not breaking out of the 60s.

The backdoor cold front likely halts its progression into the late morning as a progressive moving low pressure system slides to the north of the area. This will bring a more S/SE flow into much of the area through the afternoon. The low quickly moves north of the area with a cold front eventually moving through by late Wednesday.
Much of the region should remain dry as the greatest forcing remains to the north, though a stray shower or thunderstorm isn't entirely ruled out, especially for the northern and eastern most tiers of the CWA


KEY MESSAGE 2

Elevated water levels driven by a recent new moon and low pressure that passed through over the weekend may allow some coastal locations to briefly enter minor flood stage during Tuesday's late AM/early PM high tide cycle. Inundation up to a half foot is possible. Best chances of occurrence are along vulnerable spots in S Nassau and along portions of the western LI Sound in SW CT. Some of the eastern bays of LI may also approach minor flood benchmarks. A Coastal Flood Statement was issued for southern Nassau and southern Fairfield. Water levels then look to fall enough to preclude any further flooding beyond this cycle.


KEY MESSAGE 3

Global models have been consistently indicating a strong cold frontal passage for the end of the week.

The 12Z GFS, CMC, ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and the AI-GFS all have the timing of the front sometime between Friday afternoon and very early Saturday morning. There will be good shear with the system, however the amount of instability will depend on the timing of the front and any maritime cloud cover. As a result, confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms is low at this time. However, due to the setup, especially with a potential 170+ kt H3 jet over ON/QC, it will need to be watched.

Confidence is higher for strong winds and colder temperatures behind the fropa and into the weekend. Deep mixing on nwly flow could push winds to advy levels. In addition, some subfreezing temps will be possible as thicknesses plummet. For Sat night, the NBM has lows in the 30s for almost the entire area. The MEX however is even colder with widespread upr 20s despite the wind. Because the cold airmass appears to be highly transitory, did not stray from the NBM at this time.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure gradually builds over the terminals through tonight. A cold front approaches tonight from the NE, then remains nearby on Tuesday.

Mainly VFR through much of tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings at 3kft possible through 21z. MVFR ceilings will then likely develop at KGON towards 07-09z, then gradually spread south and west to KBDR, KHPN, and KISP after 12z. These ceilings could briefly impact NYC terminals, but confidence is low at this time.

N-NW winds around 10-15 kt this afternoon with a few gusts around 20 kt. Winds will begin weakening into this evening, then become light and variable tonight. Winds gradually increase out of the ESE-SE Tuesday morning before becoming S Tuesday afternoon 10 kt or less.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts around 20 kt possible through 22z.

Low chance for MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Afternoon-Night: MVFR possible across eastern Long Island/southeast Connecticut. Chance of a shower/isolated thunderstorm towards KGON at night.

Wednesday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night-Friday: MVFR or lower in showers. SW gusts 25-30 kt Friday afternoon and evening.

Friday night-Saturday: VFR. NW gusts 25-35 kt

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds will continue to diminish as low pressure tracks further away from the waters. The SCA is in effect for the ocean thru tonight for lingering high seas.

Winds and seas may hit SCA criteria on the ocean late Tue into Wed with a weak frontal system moving by. The remaining waters are expected to remain below SCA levels at this time.

A strong frontal system will then impact the waters Friday and Saturday. SCA conditions are likely on all waters for Friday, then NW gales are possible on all waters behind the system Friday night and into the weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.