Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Madison Center, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Just some minor adjustments to reflect latest temperatures and dew points. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

High pressure overhead today will result in fairly clear skies and dry conditions. As the center of the high moves offshore to the east, a light return flow out of the south will allow low level moisture to increase. THis southerly flow off the relatively cool ocean will also prevent high temperatures today along the coast from rising above the upper 60s to low 70s. Interior areas that aren't influences by the flow off of the ocean will see highs in the middle to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High clouds begin to move into the area tonight with the approach of a broad surface low from the southwest. This weak, slow moving surface low is being forced by a mid-level cut-off low that is slowly becoming reintroduced to the mean flow. This will allow much of the middle of the week to experience showery conditions.

Increasing clouds and moisture tonight will prevent temperatures from falling too much with lows in the 50s to near 60 in the NYC metro. Much of the first half of the night should be dry but the chance of showers increases a bit for the western portion of the area after 2-4AM. Showers should remain light in intensity. The eastward progression of this band of scattered showers remains a bit uncertain as the showers will be running into the drier airmass from the high pressure still sitting offshore.

This general pattern continues during the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night with the best chance for showers being the western portions of the area with eastern areas possibly remaining mostly dry during this timeframe. Overcast skies will prevent temperatures from rising too much Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s for the northeasternmost areas.

As the low continues to move toward the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the chance of showers expands eastward with increasing southerly flow increasing the low level moisture across the area.
Highs Wednesday will only be in the middle to upper 60s. By Wednesday night, showers should overtake much of the area. There may be enough elevated instability to result in some isolated thunderstorms.

Rainfall totals over this timeframe should be anywhere from 0.25" to 0.75" with the highest amounts more likely in the western portion of the CWA No hydrologic or flooding concerns are expected.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unsettled for the long term, though no day seems to be a complete washout.

Weak surface low and upper level trough will affect the forecast area on Thursday, pushing offshore Thursday night. This will be followed by weak upper level ridging into Friday night as a warm front approaches at the surface during the day. The warm front lifts north late Friday into Friday night, leaving the area warm sectored for Saturday. The associated cold front approaches and moves through Saturday night, with a secondary cold front/surface trough moving through Sunday.

It becomes more unstable on Thursday with rising temps and the upper trough moving over the area. This should support initiation, so some showers and thunderstorms possible especially in the afternoon and evenings.

As the upper low associated with the frontal system impacting the forecast area at the end of the week into the weekend slowly treks east over southeastern Canada, the flow will become more westerly aloft, and temperatures begin to surge towards 80 on Friday, especially W of the Hudson. There could be another round of showers and thunderstorms with energy embedded in the flow, but confidence is low this far out.

Another warm day on Saturday with the area warm sectored. It should be a few degrees warmer than Friday.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR as high pressure works offshore today.

SE-S Winds around 10 kt into the afternoon. There were few gusts up to 20 kt, but these should be infrequent. Increasing cloud cover through the period, but cigs remain VFR through much of tonight. MVFR or lower is possible around 12Z Tuesday, but more likely after 12Z.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may be off by an hour or two. Low chance of MVFR or lower conditions around 12Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: MVFR or lower and showers possible.

Tuesday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR cond possible especially near the coast at KJFK/KISP/KHPN/KBDR/KGON, otherwise MVFR cond expected. Chance of showers.

Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR cond expected, IFR or lower cond possible at times. Showers likely. E-SE winds G20kt possible on Wed.

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR and showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Tuesday night.
The pressure gradient increases with a low pressure building into the area from the southwest on Wednesday. This will result in gust near 25 kt on the ocean as well as wave heights near 5-7 feet. SCA conditions likely linger on the ocean through Thursday before subsiding Thursday night. Thereafter, winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria due to lack of any strong pressure gradient across the waters.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.