Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guilford Center, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Isentropic lift and low level omega will combine with low level moisture for areas of drizzle and/or light rain mainly for eastern and coastal areas. The lift then exits south overnight with dry conditions and diminishing cloud cover and winds.
NBM was used for low temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A cold front approaches in the morning, then shifts through the forecast area during the afternoon. No rainfall with its passage as moisture will be lacking. The cold advection should help kick up wind gusts by late in the day into the night. Winds probably do not decouple late Wednesday night, so while cold advection will still be ongoing at that time, frost is not anticipated for those northernmost zones that are expected to have temperatures fall into the mid 30s. Low temperatures across the rest of the area will be mostly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

High pressure continues to slowly build in from the NW Thursday into Thursday night. Continued dry weather for the period with below normal temperatures. The pressure gradient should weaken enough for light to calm winds over western areas of the forecast area, so with the chilly air mass in place, some frost may form for areas NW of the city late Thursday night. Could eventually need a frost advisory for at least Orange County as frost/freeze headlines would be issued for events up through the end of the month.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Messages:

* Dry conditions will prevail through most of the weekend. It will remain somewhat breezy on Fri due to the pressure gradient between high pressure building from west and strengthening low pressure meandering out over the open Atlantic.

* Below normal temperatures will continue on Friday with highs only in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Temps Fri night could fall to 35-40 inland and into 40s elsewhere.

* Milder weather returns this weekend as a warm front passes to the north and vertically stacked high pressure builds over and east of the area. Temperatures should reach 65-70 on Sat and 70-75 on Sunday.

* A cold front and associated closed low aloft will bring showers mainly Sunday night into Monday. NBM onto the idea that the slower 12Z GFS vs faster 00Z ECMWF solution may pan out during this time frame. Latest ECMWF has slowed down as well, showing the closed low taking on a negative tilt with sfc low pressure developing along the front and remaining to the west. High temps Mon/Tue will be in the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure over the western Atlantic drifts farther east through tonight as high pressure remains to the northwest. A cold front passes through Wednesday afternoon.

MVFR ceilings may persist into this evening until 03Z. Once ceilings improve to VFR, conditions remain VFR through the remainder of the forecast period.

Winds will remain northerly through the forecast with gusts ending tonight. Winds increase during Wednesday, and become gusty, generally to 18-23kt, backing a little toward NNW during the afternoon. Gusts may persist into the evening Wednesday night, especially for eastern terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of VFR this evening may be off an hour or two.
Amendments possible for varying flight categories into this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night into Thursday: VFR. NNW winds G15-25kt.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR. Late day showers possible Sunday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Changes: SCA cancelled for all non ocean waters except for the Sound E of Orient, where some gusts to 25 kt and 5-ft swells may still be occurring into this evening.

For the ocean waters: SCA remains in effect through Wed night as seas remain elevated through the period. Winds diminish into Wed morning, but then increase again behind the passage of a cold front in the afternoon. Will likely need to eventually extend the advisory there into Thu night or Fri morning. Then quiet cond should last until Sunday afternoon/night, when S flow may gust up to 25 kt and seas build to 5-6 ft on the ocean ahead of a cold front.

For the non ocean waters: There is a chance for gusts over 25 kt again at some point late Wed afternoon, and more likely Wed night into Thu. Guidance has trended a little weaker with winds, so did not yet issue an advisory there.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Offshore flow and less tidal piling then mitigate most flooding threats for at least the next few days.

With N flow relaxing on Fri, a couple of the more vulnerable spots along the Fairfield CT coastline and along the back bays of S Nassau/SW Suffolk south may get close to minor thresholds, but confidence in this is low. With S flow and seas increasing on Sunday ahead of a cold front, there is medium confidence that tidal piling and elevated astronomical tides associated with the new moon of the 20th may lead to some spotty minor coastal flooding in these same areas.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.