Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guilford Center, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A frontal boundary is stalled out across the region. Not much translational movement is expected through today with the front.
Weak waves of low pressure travel along it.

Right rear quadrant of upper level jet is near the region through today. Mid level positive vorticity advection adds further forcing.

POPs for showers and thunderstorms remain through the day.
Intermittent nature to the convection.

Temperatures today with a slight decrease in 850mb temperatures and more shower and thunderstorm activity, a cooler but still very humid day expected.

Added in patchy fog going into early this morning especially in those areas that had more rain and thereby have more moisture laden grounds.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The convective coverage will be on a downward trend tonight as forcing decreases with the loss of daytime instability.

Upper level forcing decreases with jet streak moving farther northeast of the region tonight. Troughing pattern eventually transitions to more of a ridging pattern.

The frontal boundary weakens at the surface and eventually settles to the south of the region by the weekend.

The showers and thunderstorms have less coverage Friday and Saturday and will be driven more by the daytime instability and daytime troughing as well as low level convergence. The forcing aloft will be minimal as ridging becomes more apparent.

Daytime temperatures on a warming trend but will be limited as flow retains more of an easterly component.

Added in patchy fog for late tonight into early Friday morning with less winds and some radiational cooling allow for more low level saturation considering the continued humid environment.



LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Messages - Showers and thunderstorms are a daily concern through Monday, thanks to a lingering boundary and plenty of moisture from the onshore flow. Western forecast areas are at the greatest risk, as daytime heating will boost instability.

- The greatest uncertainty in the forecast period, particularly for temperatures and PoPs, remains Sunday through Monday. This is attributed to the varied handling of a weak frontal system by the ensembles.

- Next week, temperatures are expected to warm up, reaching the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s. ML guidance is hinting at a low (10-30%) threat for severe weather that will need to be monitored, along with a frontal system late in the week.

No major changes made to the NBM.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A stationary frontal boundary remains near the terminals through tonight.

Mainly VFR to start early this morning with some local IFR-LIFR across eastern Long Island and coastal CT. Complex of showers and thunderstorms has moved east of the area, but lingering showers are possible through at least day break. MVFR is otherwise expected around day break, but confidence in it prevailing is low so have gone with tempos at most sites except east of the NYC metros.

VFR is anticipated this afternoon with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Have left the PROB30 in place for NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley terminals this afternoon and early evening. Coverage however may end up more isolated. Conditions should lower tonight with MVFR most sites and IFR or LIFR possible east of the NYC metro terminals.

Mainly light winds this morning. A light W or SW flow may develop at NYC terminals after day break but winds should gradually become S-SE late morning into the afternoon remaining under 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR may prevail this morning and could linger a few hours longer than in TAF this afternoon.

Some variability in wind direction is possible throughout the TAF period as wind speeds will overall be light.

Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: MVFR or lower possible.

Friday - Sunday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening near and northwest of the NYC terminals with MVFR possible.

Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
No hazards are expected outside of thunderstorms as conditions are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Some patchy fog will be possible into this morning as well as late tonight into early Friday morning, which could possibly be dense.

HYDROLOGY
Minor risk for flash flooding with otherwise poor drainage, urban and low lying flooding with any thunderstorms in the short term.
Today holds relatively higher chance of these thunderstorms with more coverage in the forecast.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Rip current risk forecast is moderate both for today and Friday for the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island due to onshore flow of near 5-10 kts as well as 3 to 4 ft of 7-8 sec period swell as well as some smaller onshore long period swell of 1 ft and 11-12 sec period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.