Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Peekskill, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Dry conditions attempt to hold for at least a portion of the area, especially further east this morning as the mid to upper level ridge axis eventually pivots through. It will thus take awhile to overcome mid level dry air. The mid level dry air is quite evident on BUFKIT forecast soundings among the various model camps. The NAM3km and the FV3 are in the camp that the mid level dry air gets overcome faster, compared to the HRRR and RGEM camp which has the mid level dry air holding in a bit longer. Either way some light rain activity should get into western portions of the area by mid to late morning, with eastern areas possibly as early as later in the afternoon or perhaps as late as the early evening as far as the more organized rain activity. In any event, it will be an overcast day with the more unsettled weather in terms of light rain being more evident further west. An easterly flow increases today, and will be more noticeable this afternoon. Look for below average temperatures today with temperatures not getting out of the 50s.

Tonight synoptic scale forcing increases with positive vorticity advection increasing through the night and peaking into early Thu morning. Simultaneously the best warm air advection takes shape from 0z to about 12z Thu. The LLJ gets to 30-40 kt out of the SE and E, and thus the steadiest rain takes shape tonight and carries into Thu morning. Temperatures will average near to slightly below normal tonight despite moisture and cloud cover due to a cool strong onshore flow. Winds will gust 20 to 25 mph in many locations, with coastal sections gusting to around 30 mph at times.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The 700 mb lobe of low pressure / shortwave pivot through slowly during Thu morning. Carlson conveyor belt brings in the moisture off the Atlantic with rain through the morning and into the early afternoon. But by later in the day the 700 mb low consolidates and starts to get further north. This likely shuts off the steady rain, especially further south across the area with northern interior sections perhaps holding on to steady rain for much of the day. With the sfc reflection getting a bit further east and north the winds are expected to get more of a northerly component and be more out of the northeast Thu afternoon. Coastal locations once again will see gusts close to 30 mph at times. With the cloud cover and ENE flow regime look for temperatures once again to run below average and not get out of the 50s region wide as rain tapers most likely from south to north during the second half of the day. Event rainfall totals should average 1 to 2 inches across the region. For more details with respect to the rain and any hydrologic response please refer to the hydrology section.

Cyclonic flow continues into Thursday night, however the best forcing slowly pushes north of the area and into New England. Look for periods of light shower activity with any additional rainfall to be on the light side as the system becomes vertically stacked.
Mainly cloudy skies persist with temperatures averaging a bit below average with lows mainly in the 40s, to around 50 in the NYC metro.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points:

*Unsettled conditions will continue Friday with cool temperatures and scattered showers possible.

*Temperatures start to trend warmer Saturday and especially Sunday.
Showers possible inland on Saturday.

*Chance of showers Memorial Day with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

*Unsettled weather remains into Tuesday with a chance of showers.

An upper trough, with an enclosed low, lingers across the northeast Friday and Saturday, and moves into Northern New England Sunday.
Another shortwave rotates into the trough Sunday night into Monday, with unsettled weather continuing into Memorial Day. The elongated upper trough then remains across the Great Lakes region and into the northeast into the middle of next week. Meanwhile surface low pressure tracks along the New England coast Friday and into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday.
Weak surface high pressure may briefly build into the region for Sunday into Monday. Then low pressure tracks south of the area later Monday into Tuesday with the potential for additional rainfall.
Followed the NBM guidance through the extended period.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure remains over New England and into Long Island overnight, and then gradually gives way to low pressure approaching from the southwest today.

MVFR with VFR at times through the overnight, then widespread MVFR likely by morning. Rain begins to move slowly into the terminals around 14Z west and 16Z east, with KGON holding off possibly as late as 19Z or later into the afternoon. Widespread IFR conditions likely hold off until tonight, but there could be some pockets before then, especially across the Lower Hudson Valley.

Light E winds overnight will gradually strengthen this morning, increasing to 10-15kt, with G15-20kt developing during the afternoon. Winds gradually back to the NE late tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of the rain may vary by 1-2 hours. Pockets of IFR possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late tonight-Thursday: IFR, possibly MVFR at times, with periods of rain. E wind gusts 20-25kt, mainly at the coastal terminals. Winds diminishing and veering to the N/NE Thursday afternoon/night.

Friday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers inland with MVFR.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft conditions develop today on the ocean waters as gusts get to 25 kt for the most part and ocean seas get closer to 5 ft late in the day. During this evening small craft conditions develop on the near shore waters mainly from west to east. Gale watches continue late tonight into a portion of the day on Thursday for the ocean waters, and have added the eastern nearshore waters to the Gale Watch through the day Thursday. During Thursday night sub advisory conditions return from west to east on the near shore waters as the winds turn more NW and gradually diminish into early Friday morning. Small craft seas linger on the ocean waters throughout Thursday night.

Small craft conditions will be possible on the ocean waters Friday morning, with seas falling below advisory levels by the afternoon as a northwest flow backs to the west. Winds and seas will then remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters through Monday night.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated with the coastal system for mid week. Flooding overall is not a concern as max rainfall rates should stay below a half inch per hour. The rain is expected to fall over a long enough duration to preclude flood impacts. Some minor nuisance urban related flooding cannot be completely ruled out, but overall impacts should be low to none. There are no hydrologic concerns Friday into early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
An increasing E-NE flow develops and persists into Thursday. Later in the day Thursday and into Thursday evening the winds take on more of a northerly component. This could very well limit any coastal flooding for the Thursday evening high tide cycle, and the Friday evening high tide cycle for coastal SW CT appears to be trending down.

At this time it appears the main high tide cycle to monitor for the south shore bays of Queens, Nassau, and portions of the south shore of Suffolk is Thursday evening. Tidal departures in these spots look to be mainly 1.5 to 2 ft, and locally as high as 2.0 to 2.5 ft out east. The latest Stevens, ETSS, ESTOFS blend yields pockets of minor benchmarks being touched or exceeded. There is a low probability that Staten Island and portions of NE NJ may also approach and barely touch minor benchmarks Thursday evening. Otherwise the area along the coast to monitor is SW CT as Bridgeport and Stamford may touch or slightly exceed minor benchmarks for the Thursday evening cycle, with the Friday cycle looking less likely now for SW CT.
Trends along the NW LI gauges has come down with minor benchmarks likely not being met.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-340.
Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ331-332-340.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ335-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Thursday for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to noon EDT Thursday for ANZ355.