Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Haven, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Summer-like warmth continues into Wednesday.

2) An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the the area Wednesday. More seasonable weather to follow behind the cold front for the end of the week.

3) Cold water safety concerns continue this weekend with good boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A stretch unseasonably warm weather will begin today with somewhat of a brief interruption on Monday. Highs today will get into the 80s to around 90, warmest north and west of the NYC metro. The south shore beaches of LI will be the coolest, with temperatures struggling to get much higher than 70. This is due to a strengthening onshore flow (S-SW) with ocean temperatures in the 50s. Other, coastal locations will fair better with less of maritime influence.

A shortwave trough passing to the north today and a confluent mid-level flow will allow a backdoor cold front to drop down across the New England coast and across the area late tonight into Monday morning. This will be a real shallow, cooler airmass behind the front. Much of the guidance, including the latest CAMs, do get the front across the Lower Hudson Valley and northern NJ, but not too much farther west. Areas well north and west should still approach 90, but in general, expecting highs to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler Monday. Most of the climate sites are within 3 degrees of records.

Significant height rises along the eastern seaboard during this time will allow for much warmer air to move in aloft. As the ridge axis shifts gradually east Monday night, the front will lift north of the area as a warm front with additional warming of the layer. 85H temps on Tuesday get to 18C or even a bit higher. There still will be a maritime influence at the coast with a gusty southerly flow. Winds do veer more to the SW on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This was originally going to be the hottest day. However, an approaching cold front has been trending faster with chances increasing for an afternoon cold frontal passage,

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will range from generally the 80s at the coast (minus the south shore beaches of LI), to the lower and mid 90s from NYC and points north and west. During this time, undercut NBM highs by 3 to 5 degrees. This is partly due to its early season warm bias and potential for an earlier cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Because of this records highs are looking unlikely for this timeframe. Record high mins are a better possibility for Tuesday and Wednesday.

A few weak impulses moving around the upper ridge could result in sprinkles or a shower later tonight into Monday, and possibly a thunderstorm north and west Tuesday afternoon/evening. Low confidence.

KEY MESSAGE 2
A less amplified, positively tilted upper moves through the Great Lakes and northeast midweek sending a cold front across the area Wednesday. The front continues to trend faster with a possible cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon. The front should be active with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. The severe weather threat looks low at this time. More seasonable temperatures are forecast for the end of the week. There is a chance for rain next weekend as the frontal boundary returns to the north.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Cold water safety concerns today as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure builds south of the terminals.

VFR through the TAF period.

S-SW winds 10-15kt this afternoon with an occasional gust to 20kt. Winds diminish this evening and become light and variable through tonight. Winds shift around to the E-SE Monday around 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt in the afternoon and into the early evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional this afternoon/evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible.

Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with potential showers and thunderstorms. Showers likely afternoon into eve with a chance of thunderstorms. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.
NW windshift in the evening.

Thursday-Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A SCA remains in effect for the oceans through early this afternoon.

Seas are a bit lower this morning and based on trends in the guidance, seas are likely to fall below 4 ft on the nearshore ocean zones by early this afternoon.

Cold water safety concerns today as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated Sunday night through Monday night as flow temporarily weakens under high pressure. SCA conditions likely redevelop on the ocean water Tue into Tue night with strengthening SW flow, potentially for all waters by Wednesday.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

May 17: KEWR: 94/1974 KBDR: 85/1974 KNYC: 92/1974 KLGA: 94/2017 KJFK: 89/1974 KISP: 85/1974

May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 17: KEWR: 68/2015 KBDR: 60/2025 KNYC: 70/1906 KLGA: 68/1965 KJFK: 63/1965 KISP: 62/2015

May 18: KEWR: 74/2017 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 75/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 65/2017 KISP: 63/1977

May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017

May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.