Tuesday, September29, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Montgomery, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:41PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 9:32 PM EDT (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:11PMMoonset 4:23AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 627 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Isolated tstms this evening. Showers. Isolated tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and overnight.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 627 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front will move across the waters late tonight into Wednesday morning as a wave of low pressure develops along it. High pressure will build in Wednesday night through Thursday. A cold front moves through Thursday night through Friday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front. High pressure returns Saturday and Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Montgomery, NY
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location: 41.3, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 300017 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 817 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving cold front will move across the area late tonight into Wednesday morning as a wave of low pressure develops along it. High pressure will build in Wednesday night through Thursday. A cold front moves through Thursday night through Friday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front. High pressure returns Saturday and Sunday. Another frontal system impacts the area Sunday night through Monday night. High pressure returns briefly Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. A area of showers across most of New Jersey and northward into the lower Hudson Valley, and into portions of southwestern Connecticut continues to lift north and west through early this evening. The precipitation has been filling in as upper level energy rotates northward along the eastern portion of the upper trough. With the increased coverage have adjusted probabilities upward through this evening.

More importantly, a bout of heavier rainfall will arrive from the south and west late tonight as cold front arrives from the west, while a developing low-level jet works in from the south. There is good signal in the CAMs of a band of heavier rain moving off the ocean across Long Island and Connecticut, associated with the low-level jet and warm advection, with the main band along and ahead of the cold front. These two areas of lift will likely consolidate across the area with about a 6 hour period of moderate to occasionally heavy rain. There is also enough instability for embedded thunderstorms.

The cold front will work east of area by 12Z (8 AM) with perhaps a couple hours of showers lingering behind. Total rainfall amounts will average between 1 and 2 inches with the highest totals currently forecast from the NYC metro NE into interior souther Connecticut. However, due to banding coming in off the ocean, higher rainfall amounts can not be ruled farther to the east.

Due to the recent stretch of dry weather and low stream flow, FFG is high with much of the area outside of urban areas needing upwards of 4 inches in 6 hours. NE NJ is closer to 2.5 inches due to faster responding river and streams. Additionally, PWATs around 2 inches, exceeding the 90th percentile, does raise the concern for over an inch an hour rates with any stronger convection. The good news is the front looks to be progressive enough that any bands will translate east. Thus, only looking for localized urban and poor drainage flooding.

There is also a wind advisory across the eastern half of Long Island (Suffolk) and southeast CT as a strengthening low-level jet works northward along the Mid Atlantic coast and across these areas during the pre-dawn areas. There is a good agreement amongst the guidance with 925 mb winds of 60 to 65 kt. There is always uncertainty with how much of this momentum transfers down to the ground with a marine influence and not a deep-mixed layer. There should be good chance to see gusts to around 45 mph across the advisory area and 25 to 35 mph elsewhere.

Warm and humid conditions with the rain overnight will keep temperatures in the 60s, about 10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Conditions dry out quickly post-frontal with gusty W/SW winds up to 30 mph during the day Wednesday. Cold advection and partly to mostly sunny skies will keep temperatures close to 70 degrees. Additionally, it will be less humid as dew points drop into the 40s and 50s.

For Wednesday night, gusts will diminish but SW winds will keep temperatures about 5 degrees above normal, ranging from around 50 inland to around 60 NYC metro.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The long term forecast will be dominated by a high amplitude longwave upper pattern, as a ridge remains in place across the western states and a trough across the central and eastern states. Guidance has been consistent with this persistent pattern with some variations in the timing and placement of shortwaves that will be rotating through the longwave.

Thursday a shortwave will be remaining to the northwest as another wave moves into the longwave trough. This will bring a cold front moving slowly across the northeast and mid Atlantic states as the front becomes nearly parallel to the mid level and upper level flows. With a good influx of Gulf of Mexico moisture and good isentropic lift, a moderate rainfall will become possible. This frontal boundary will be the leading edge of colder air moving toward the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will be falling to around 5 degrees below seasonal levels for the weekend and in the beginning of next week.

Surface high pressure builds for the weekend, then another shortwave moving through the upper trough will develop a low across the Mississippi Valley that will translate to the northeast and mid Atlantic coast Sunday night and Monday. With this system there is more uncertainty with the timing and placement than the Thursday night Friday system.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front approaches the area and moves across the region late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Variable flight conditions for this evening, with mainly MVFR conditions initially, then giving way to primarily IFR conditions. Widespread MVFR to IFR is expected towards 03-06Z. Rain showers become more consistent and steady, and relatively heavier towards and after midnight for the city terminals. Some of the rain may be heavy at times, especially between 07z-10z. The rain comes to an end and conditions improve towards 12z, and shortly thereafter for eastern most terminals. VFR conditions are expected to return between 13-16z for most, if not all of the terminals.

Winds will generally be S near 10 kt this evening, then increase to 15-20kts with gusts 25-30kts more likely ahead of the cold front. Wind shear may also become an issue, especially for the eastern most TAF sites during the overnight hours with gusts to near 50-60kts at 2kft. There may be a short window where winds diminish around daybreak with a brief subtle shift in the wind to the SW, but winds are expected to increase once again by mid morning Wednesday with gusts to 25-30kt. Winds will be mainly from the west Wednesday afternoon with gusts continuing before becoming more southwest again towards the late afternoon and evening.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments will be possible through this evening and into the overnight as conditions generally deteriorate. Timing of showers and gusts for the overnight and into Wednesday morning may need amendments.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday Night. VFR. SW winds around 10 kt with gusts around 20 kt during the evening. Thursday. Mainly VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Friday. MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers. Saturday and Sunday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Southerly gales will develop and impact all of the ocean waters and eastern sound and bays tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the west and moves across the waters by 8 am. Gales gusts up to 40 kt will allow seas to build quickly to 6 to 10 ft. Winds on the western Sound and Harbor should reach SCA criteria, with gusts 25-30 kt. Gales will subside shortly after the cold frontal passage and will then be followed by SCA conditions on all waters. Seas will slowly diminish Wed into Wed night.

With a persistent strong southwest flow into Thursday ocean seas will remain elevated at SCA levels, and then fall below during Thursday evening as a cold front moves into the forecast waters. Sub SCA conditions will continue late Thursday night and through Sunday as high pressure builds into region.

HYDROLOGY. A slow moving frontal boundary and a wave of low pressure will bring significant rainfall late tonight into Wednesday morning. Rainfall of 1-2 inches with local totals over 3 inches are possible. Due to dry antecedent conditions, the relatively long duration of the event, and high flash flood guidance, no significant flooding is anticipated. Urban and and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.

Additional rainfall is possible late Thursday night through Friday evening, with another storm impacting the area Sunday night into Monday night. Hydrologic impacts are not expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ007-008-010>012. NY . Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ078-080. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ079-081. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ330-340-345-355. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.

SYNOPSIS . MET/DW NEAR TERM . MET/DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . JE MARINE . MET/DW HYDROLOGY . MET/DW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 32 mi48 min ESE 7.8 G 12 71°F 71°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 33 mi123 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 69°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 36 mi45 min 70°F 1008.3 hPa
NPXN6 37 mi63 min SSE 1.9 71°F 1009 hPa69°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi45 min 71°F 69°F1007.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi45 min 71°F 71°F1008.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi45 min 71°F 1006.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi45 min 70°F 70°F1007 hPa
MHRN6 46 mi63 min ESE 8 G 9.9
TKPN6 49 mi45 min 60°F 67°F1008.8 hPa60°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newburgh / Stewart, NY15 mi48 minE 65.00 miDrizzle68°F68°F100%1007.8 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY20 mi39 minSE 45.00 miRain Fog/Mist68°F66°F93%1006.7 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY22 mi37 minESE 81.00 miFog/Mist69°F68°F96%1007.4 hPa
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY24 mi40 minN 07.00 miLight Rain69°F66°F93%1007 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSWF

Wind History from SWF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE8SE6CalmSE6CalmCalmS5SE6S7CalmSE6SE654CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S6S5SE6E6
1 day agoCalm555555SE6SE65SW10SW5SW12
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2 days agoS5S5S3S5S54Calm4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm55555S854444

Tide / Current Tables for Peekskill, Hudson River, New York (2)
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Peekskill
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:19 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:58 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:12 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.81.10.50.20.30.91.72.42.93.12.92.51.91.40.80.40.40.91.72.433.43.2

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:06 AM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:30 AM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:24 PM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:43 PM EDT     0.86 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.2-1-0.50.10.60.70.70.4-0.1-0.6-1-1.2-1.2-1-0.7-00.60.80.90.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.