Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watch Hill, RI

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 7:26 AM EDT (11:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:51PMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday morning...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming e. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will move north this morning drawing warm and very humid air over the waters. This will bring patchy fog as well as showers and scattered Thunderstorms today through Thursday. A cold front then sweeps across the waters sometime Thursday night into early Friday morning. Dry weather and good vsby follows for Friday into the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watch Hill, RI
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location: 41.31, -71.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 210836
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
436 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over southern new england moves offshore tonight
providing seasonable dry weather. A warm front moves across the
region Wednesday providing scattered showers and thunderstorms
along with increasing heat and humidity. A cold front pushing
across the region on Thursday will bring another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms, which will linger into
early Friday across southern areas as the front slowly pushes
offshore. High pressure builds across the northeast, with
steady onshore winds bringing cool temperatures into early next
week. There may also be a chance for low clouds along with spotty
light rain or showers with the Sunday through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Warm front moves north into southern new england today bringing
increasing moisture and instability. Northeast radars show
several clusters of showers and tstms moving northeast toward
vt, as well as a few showers storms in the lower hudson valley
and south of long island moving toward SRN new england. Short
range models such as the high res WRF show some showers with the
warm air this morning, distinct from a second round of
convection moving west to east this afternoon evening. The
second round of precip is associated with a shortwave aloft and
surface trough moving through later today this evening.

Satellite trends show a broken layer of clouds with the
convection. This along with normal diurnal trends would suggest
the Sun will break through any cloud cover and generate the
necessary daytime heating. Sb CAPE climbs to 1500-2500 j kg, as
has been indicated in previous days, while LI values range from
down to -7. Winds aloft show 30 kt at 850 mb and 35 kt at 500
mb. Helicity in the 0-3 km layer shows 150 to 250, a little
higher than forecast in past days. Based on this we expect a
continued risk of strong damaging thunderstorm winds.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches today, with
with lift generated by the shortwave and trough on an unstable
airmass. As such, we continue to see a risk of downpours which
could cause poor drainage flooding, especially in areas of
thunderstorm training.

The best chance of strong winds and downpours would be in NRN ct
and central western ma. But aside from that relative comparison,
all parts of our forecast area are in play for strong tstms and
downpours.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
The shortwave and surface trough eventually move off to the east
tonight, but timing should allow for additional evening
convection with strong winds downpours. But this should diminish
by midnight. Models show no significant chance in airmass, and
dew points will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, so expect a
humid night with areas of fog and lows in the upper 60s and low
70s.

Closed low over james bay sweeps south and pushes a cold front
south into new england. After the morning fog burns off, daytime
heating will work on 16-18c 850 temps to warm the surface to
the mid 80s to around 90. Low level humidity remains in place.

Pw values diminish in the morning, but then climb back to near 2
inches in the afternoon. Instability parameters will not be as
beefy as today, but will show 500-1000 j kg in the interior and
1000-1500 j kg in ri SE mass. So expect showers and scattered
tstms especially in the afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* scattered showers and a few thunderstorms linger Thursday
night as the cold front slowly crosses
* showers linger on Friday with cooler temperatures
* expect mild temperatures and dry conditions Saturday
* cooler than normal temperatures expected Sunday through
Tuesday along with spotty light rain or showers at times
details...

Thursday night...

as the cold front crosses the region, will still see areas of
showers and a few lingering thunderstorms, mainly near and south
of the mass pike. Will see instability decrease as the front
pushes slowly through, but may still see some locally heavy
downpours as another deep moisture layer moving across. Pwat
plume increases to around 2 inches across N ct ri to E mass as
an associated short wave slowly crosses near the slowly moving
front. Could see some locally heavy downpours once again with
this feature.

Friday...

as the front becomes nearly parallel with the mid level steering
flow, could see leftover showers linger along the S coast, cape
cod and the islands through around midday before finally pushing
offshore. Expect the back edge of the cloud deck to slowly shift
southward, pushing offshore late in the day. Light w-nw winds
take over, allowing drier air to move in. Expect temperatures to
top off in the 70s, with a few spots touching 80, along with
decreasing humidity.

Saturday through Tuesday...

quite a bit of model solution spread amongst the members this
morning, with lends to lower confidence on the forecast during
this timeframe.

Rather confident with the slow but steady movement of the high
pressure across northern new england, setting up across maine
into eastern quebec and new brunswick late this weekend. This
will set up a NE and eventually easterly wind flow by the start
of the work week. Could see some gusts up to 20-25 mph across
cape cod and the islands, possibly into S coastal areas on
Sunday. The big question will be whether patchy light rain
and or showers could develop from time to time from Sunday to
Tuesday. Where these showers and or rain set up is in question,
but have kept slight chance pops going for now. At this point,
looks like there might be a somewhat better chance for more
organized showers Monday into Tuesday, but not a lot of
confidence.

With the steady onshore flow, expect temps to run around 5
degrees or so below seasonal normals, mainly from Sunday to
Tuesday. Highs on Sunday and Monday may not break 70 at some
locations along E coastal mass.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Through 12z...VFR. May see local ifr conditions along the outer
cape and nantucket.

Today...

mainlyVFR, with MVFR CIGS vsbys in showers and scattered
thunderstorms. A few showers are possible this morning in ct and
western ma, and are possible in all areas this afternoon and
evening. The best chance for showers tstms will be in northern
ct and western central ma in the afternoon and evening. A few
strong storms are possible with gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy downpours.

Tonight...

MVFRVFR with scattered showers tstms especially in the evening.

Southwest winds gusting to 20 kt, especially over CAPE cod and
islands.

Thursday...

vfr MVFR in the morning...VFR in the afternoon with brief MVFR
in showers tstms possible.

Kbos terminal...

moderate to high uncertainty in timing and coverage of
showers tstms. A few showers storms possible mid to late
morning, but best chance will be mid to late afternoon.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high uncertainty in timing and
coverage of showers tstms. A few showers storms possible after 7
am, but best chance will be mid to late afternoon.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence
Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday through Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today... Warm humid air moves back over the waters. South-
southwest winds build with some gusts to 20 kt. Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms, with some strong wind gusts and
downpours. Vsby 1-3 nm in downpours and patchy fog.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms diminish after 10 pm. Vsby
1-3 nm in patchy fog. Persistent south to southwest winds will
build waves to 5-6 feet, so we have issued a small craft
advisory for some of the southern waters.

Thursday... Winds continue from the southwest much of the day,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect another round of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. Winds will remain less than
25 kt while seas will be around 5 feet on parts of the southern
waters.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Friday through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
Thursday for anz254>256.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Thursday for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb evt
marine... Wtb evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 12 mi42 min E 7 G 8 71°F 69°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi57 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 71°F 70°F1015.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi57 min 74°F 73°F1015.8 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi63 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 67°F1016.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi63 min W 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 75°F1016.5 hPa
PRUR1 36 mi57 min 73°F 73°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi102 min SW 1.9 71°F 1017 hPa70°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi57 min W 1.9 G 2.9 72°F 1016.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi57 min S 2.9 G 2.9 71°F 76°F1016.4 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi57 min S 4.1 G 4.1 71°F 1016.4 hPa67°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi57 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 76°F1016.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 44 mi87 min SSE 9.9 G 9.9 72°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.9)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi47 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 1015.8 hPa75°F
FRXM3 45 mi63 min 73°F 71°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi57 min 76°F2 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 45 mi57 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 1016.4 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi57 min 74°F 79°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI4 mi34 minN 010.00 miOvercast70°F69°F97%1016.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT10 mi31 minN 06.00 miOvercast with Haze75°F70°F84%1015.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi33 minN 0 mi75°F73°F96%1016.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI17 mi31 minS 78.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm346N5CalmW7SW9SW5SW5--SW3CalmCalmCalm----------Calm--N3Calm
1 day agoCalmW4SW6--S8S9S9S11--S10
G17
SW10SW8CalmCalmCalmCalm--------CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS9----SW5W5SW6S9S5S4S9S7S6S8SW6SW3SW6S3SW9--SW8----CalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island (2)
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Watch Hill Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.42.21.71.10.60.30.30.61.11.522.42.62.52.11.610.60.50.611.41.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:33 AM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     2.38 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:21 PM EDT     -2.56 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.21.60.6-0.4-1.4-2.2-2.5-2-10.11.22.12.41.91.10.1-1-2-2.5-2.4-1.6-0.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.