Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Shasta, CA

FXUS66 KMFR 072138 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 238 PM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026

DISCUSSION

High clouds are currently moving into southern Oregon and northern California this afternoon ahead of a warm front and the next incoming system. Temperatures will trend about 7 degrees warmer tonight due to the widespread and thicker nature of the cloud cover. Eventually, that front will arrive on shore Monday morning, although not a lot of precipitation will fall along the frontal boundary. Most of the rain will arrive with the surface low hitting the coast around mid day Monday. Strong warm air advection and plenty of moisture will bring light rain to most locations through Monday, except Modoc County during the day.

Total rain accumulation will vary widely like usual with around 1.5 inches through Tuesday near the Brookings area and 0.5 inches along other portions of the coast and higher terrain in the Cascades. We're expecting around 0.1 inches here in Medford through Tuesday. Rain like this isn't that atypical for early June, and we won't be setting precipitation records for our climate sites on Monday.

Eventually, a cold front will follow this low eastwards and push through the coast by Monday night. The GFS BUFKIT forecast soundings look fairly interesting with some convective available potential energy(CAPE) Monday night into Tuesday morning over KRBG, although the CAPE is very shallow due to some relatively warmer air and stable air aloft. So any showers that do form will be light and quite shallow on Tuesday.

The cooler and drier air will settle in briefly by Tuesday evening with the GFS placing a 1023 mb MSLP high in south western Oregon. A thermal trough still looks like it will from along the south western portion of our coast, basically around Brookings, although it doesn't have much northward extent into Thursday and Friday as we've seen the last few days. End result will be some warming temperatures on Thursday and Friday with high temperatures right around climatological normals.

The last thing that caught our eye in the forecast is both the GFS and ECMWF are showing an upper level wave sliding down the Cascades Saturday or Sunday with some east winds around 10 to 15 knots over our Cascades. After doing some spaghetti and cluster analysis on the 500mb heights, we think this scenario has a 30% chance of happening. Other solutions show a stronger ridge in place, which will still push temperatures higher for locations west of the Cascades. Overall, the take home impacts will be increasing heat and fire weather threats next weekend.

-Smith
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