Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Shasta, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:43PM Friday July 10, 2020 12:44 AM PDT (07:44 UTC) Moonrise 11:19PMMoonset 10:15AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Shasta, CA
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location: 41.32, -122.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 100536 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1036 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Updated AVIATION Section

DISCUSSION. A shortwave trough that moved over the area today resulted in partly cloudy skies across the area, along with breezy to gusty northwest winds and continued warm temperatures inland. The shortwave trough is exiting to the east this evening and a ridge is forecast to build over the area on Friday. The surface thermal trough will also become positioned inland on Friday. With this pattern, expect temperatures to warm a few degrees across inland areas, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s across inland valleys.

The upper level ridge will strengthen across inland areas, becoming centered east of the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, offshore, a upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Saturday and gradually shift inland late Saturday. Temperatures will remain warm across inland areas on Saturday, although expect some cooling at the coast and into the Umpqua. Winds will be gusty to breezy out of the west to southwest Saturday afternoon and evening. The strongest winds are expected from the Cascades east with gusty winds also into the Rogue Valley and Shasta Valley with gusts of around 25 mph, and possibly up to 30 mph for areas east of the Cascades. The combination of gusty winds and dry daytime humidities will bring increased fire weather concerns. (Please see the fire weather discussion, below, for more details).

The broad upper trough will remain in place, centered to the north, on Sunday. As such, expect slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday. A surface thermal trough will build along the coast on Sunday, resulting in gusty north winds over the coastal waters and along the coast beginning in the afternoon and increasing in the evening. Gusty northeast (offshore) winds will develop over the coastal mountains Sunday night into Monday as well. This pattern will continue into early/mid next week.

AVIATION. For the 10/06Z TAF Cycle . Expect IFR/LIFR ceilings to persist near Brookings tonight. Marine layer stratus, mostly MVFR, will also move back into areas north of Cape Blanco, including OTH. Some of this stratus could bring terrain obscurations into inland Coos and Douglas Counties overnight, but have held the ceilings above MVFR at RBG. VFR will prevail elsewhere tonight. The stratus is expected to dissipate after 16Z Friday morning with VFR all areas thereafter. -Spilde

MARINE. Updated 830 PM PDT Thursday, 9 July 2020 . With high pressure over the waters and a thermal trough far inland, light to moderate winds and seas are expected through early Sunday morning. The thermal trough will return to the coast Sunday with rapidly building wind driven seas . especially south of Cape Blanco. These stronger northerly winds are likely to persist through at least the first half of next week with steep to very steep seas. -DW/Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 455 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2020/

DISCUSSION . 2:30 PM Satellite and Radar imagery are showing some higher clouds moving across portions of Coos and Douglas Counties north into Lane County. These clouds do have radar returns associated with them, but no precipitation has been recorded hitting the ground as of yet. Meanwhile, satellite are showing some cumulus buildups along our terrain in southern Oregon and northern California. Most of these cumulus buildups will move through the area without turning into any storms, but a couple of the cumulus clouds may turn into a stray thunderstorm in northern Klamath and Lake Counties through this evening.

We made this change due to increased instability, some extra moisture and trigger with the aforementioned high level clouds being associated with a weak trough. The other thing worth noting with any potential thunderstorms is that due to their elevated nature, will cause any precipitation to evaporate before hitting the ground--thus we could see a few lightning strikes without any rain to wet the area. Still, we are expecting mostly benign conditions through this evening.

The thermal trough will continue pushing inland on Friday and Saturday leading to the warmest days this week. Temperatures east of the Cascades will be in the mid to upper 80s with temperatures West of the Cascades reaching the low 90s. Meanwhile, the coast will remain rather cool with highs reaching the upper 60s.

Then, another weak disturbance (trough) will move through the Pacific Northwest, yet still remain north of our area. Overall, we could see an increase in clouds and a decrease in temperatures, but rain chances will remain negligible. Winds, on the other hand will increase ahead of the front on Saturday, especially for the Rogue and Shasta Valleys as well as for larger areas east of the Cascades. These winds could combine with our dry weather conditions east of the Cascades and could cause some fire weather concerns. More information about that is available in the fire weather discussion below.

The extended forecast remains between the troughing pattern to our north and the ridging patterns to our east and west. Expect periods in the extended forecast where the thermal trough develops again, and we start warming up somewhat, only to cool down when the next trough moves through. We may remain in this pattern through next week. -Schaaf

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, 9 July 2020 . There are three main concerns in the forecast period. One, the potential for isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon into early this evening for northern portions of Fire Weather Zone 625 and northeast Fire Weather Zone 624. Two, gusty west to southwest winds with low relative humidity into this evening. Three, Gusty winds with low relative humidity Saturday afternoon and evening east of the Cascades. Each one will be discussed below.

Gusty winds are expected into this evening along and east of the Cascades, including fire zones 624, 625 and 285. The combination of wind and minimum relative humidity on is not expected to be enough to warrant a fire weather, so we will continue to headline.

The main reason for winds this afternoon is due to a combination of a tightening pressure gradient and stronger winds aloft. 700 mb winds are expected to be between 15 and 20 knots. However further upstairs, (600mb) winds are stronger (between 30-40 kts). Therefore, if winds from this level mix down, could lead to stronger winds at the surface.

Thunderstorms: A weak upper trough will approach the area from the west later this afternoon. The latest data suggest the combination of instablity, moisture and trigger could be sufficient to warrant a slight chance of thunderstorms for northern Lake and northeast Klamath Counties late this afternoon and evening. The one key element that could lead to isolated storms is slight cooling aloft (500mb) moving into these areas late this afternoon. At the same time, a shortwave (trigger) will still be just to the west, but that means this area will be in a area of PVA. Of note: Models soundings show a dry sub layer, so if any storms were to develop, they will likely be dry. Given the high fire danger to the areas mentioned above, we felt it was best to lean on the side of caution, so nobody is caught off guard. Most likely nothing happens, but at the same time could not rule it out. Saturday, there is concern Red Flag conditions could be met due to a combination of Gusty winds and low relative humidity for most of Fire Weather Zone 285 and portions of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625.

There a few reasons for this. First, 700mb winds are expected to be between 15-25 kts with stronger winds pushing close to 35 kts moving in from the northwest. At the same time, 600 mb winds are stronger 25-30 kts and there's a chance these could mix down near or at the surface as we reach max heating. Second, like today, pressure gradients will be tighter Saturday afternoon which will be another driving force leading to gusty winds. Third, relative humidity is expected to be lower than Thursday and it could be on the borderline of reaching critical concerns. Because of the high fire danger in the areas noted above, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Please see RFWMFR for more details.

In the meantime, gusty breezes are expected in the Rogue and Applegate Valleys south and eastward to the Mount Shasta highlands, most notably over Siskiyou Summit into the northern end of the Shasta Valley into this evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening, but were not expecting critical conditions.

Other than the days noted above, no concerns are expected for the next 7-10 days. Recoveries expected to be fairly good at night for most, if not all locations tonight. Onshore flow will continue allowing marine stratus to return for most of the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco Coquille and Umpqua Basin.

Temperatures will warm up through Saturday. Even then were only expecting them to be around 3-5 degrees above average for inland locations. Slight cooling is expected Sunday, then warming back up next week.

Next week. The general consensus among the ensembles, individual ensemble members and cluster analysis remain the same and point to the same conclusion. A general troughiness remaining over the PAC NW. There will be times where the four corners ridge will try and nudge its way towards our area, but not enough to where it would bring significant heating for next week and a continued low or almost zero chance of precipitation and thunderstorms. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for ORZ624-625.

CA . Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for CAZ285.

Pacific Coastal Waters . None.

CC/MAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Shasta, CA1 mi49 minVar 310.00 miFair64°F46°F54%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMHS

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W5CalmCalm3CalmCalm43CalmCalmCalmCalm643
1 day ago35Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalm44W64NW443Calm----N343444
2 days ago3334434--Calm635--446N3NW7NW74645--

Tide / Current Tables for Trinidad Harbor, California
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Trinidad Harbor
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Fri -- 12:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:21 AM PDT     5.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:09 AM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:00 PM PDT     5.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:49 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:47 PM PDT     2.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.74.55.25.65.54.93.92.71.50.60.30.51.22.33.54.65.45.65.44.843.32.82.7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.