Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Noank, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry and seasonable through Saturday.

2) An area of low pressure will bring rain to the area Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Behind a weak frontal passage earlier today, a gusty W/WNW flow is advecting much drier air into the area. Meanwhile, mid-level flow becomes more zonal tonight as the shortwave pulls away to the east.
Mid-level ridging begins to develop west of the area tonight and through Friday as surface high pressure strengthens underneath it.
THis surface high pressure will gradually move eastward over the area through Saturday.

This will keep the area dry and keep temperatures seasonable with highs for the next several days in the middle 60s to low 70s. As the pressure gradient weakens with high pressure overhead, generally clear and calm conditions during the next few nights may allow for some efficient radiational cooling, likely maximizing Friday night into Saturday morning. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s inland to middle 50s along the coast with lows Friday night dropping into the low 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to make landfall Friday night into Saturday morning along the eastern Gulf Coast. Refer to the latest official track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for additional details.

Remnant moisture from the system then looks to interact with mid- latitude energy, bringing a period of moderate to possibly heavy rainfall across the region Sunday into Monday. The system looks to be progressive enough to spare the region of a more substantial rainfall. In addition, there is not much evidence the system will have much instability work with, albeit precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches. Guidance continues to bring 0.75 to 1 inch of rainfall over a 12-18 hour period. The latest 90th percentile NBM shows 1.5 to 2 inches over this 18 hour period, which has also remained consistent over the last 24 hours.

S/SE winds Sunday night may briefly reach 20 to 30 mph along the coast. There is a full moon and coastal locations will need about 1 to 2 ft to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks, which is not expected at this time. This will come into better focus over the next day or so as we get into the window for surge guidance.
Right now, it is looking like a low end event at best.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure builds in from the west through the remainder of the TAF period.

VFR.

WNW winds with gusts of 20 to 25 kt subsiding in the early evening and speeds under 10 kt towards 00Z this evening. Winds mainly 5 to 10 kt much of the overnight. Winds increase mainly to 10 to 12 kt during the day Friday. Occasional gusts possible, with confidence too low to include in TAFs at this time.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts ending early this evening may be off by an hour or two.

Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible Friday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday: VFR. NW winds, occasional G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR through the early afternoon. Chance of rain with MVFR/IFR cond developing late, and at night.

Monday: MVFR or lower in rain showers early, VFR likely in afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Despite an occasional 25kt gust on the waters this afternoon, sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight and through much of the weekend as high pressure slides overhead. There is a low chance of SCA conditions, mainly for the ocean waters, Friday afternoon with gusts 20-25kt but largely appears to be under the threshold for now. The best chance for SCA conditions on the ocean will be Sunday night into Monday as a low pressure system slides over the area.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.