Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Noank, CT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Fog will continue improving across Southern Connecticut the rest of the morning as warm front lifts north.

A pre-frontal trough will also move across the area. Some convection has developed along this feature and especially near a differential heating boundary between thicker clouds and clearing to the west. The convection looks elevated as there is still a good amount of CIN and limited surface CAPE. This activity is moving NNE into the Lower Hudson Valley and should exit our area by midday. A few showers are also possible over the next few hours as the pre-frontal trough works its way east of the area.

Confidence with afternoon and evening convection remains low.
The weak shortwave associated with the aforementioned vorticity will leave behind some subsidence as well as mid level dry air this afternoon. The flow will also start becoming SW into the afternoon which may also help mix out some of the higher dew points. Another limiting factor will be the most organized forcing remaining well to our north and west this afternoon and evening immediately ahead of the parent upper low and surface low over the Great Lakes. There is also a question of how much instability will exist this afternoon despite limited cloud cover, mainly due to the aforementioned dry air. Due to all of these factors, have lowered PoPs this afternoon and evening and placed the highest probabilities over the Lower Hudson Valley and interior SW CT. The activity if it develops will be isolated further south and east closer to the coast/Long Island and may just be associated with the cold front passage this evening.

The severe weather risk remains marginal as there is enough mid level flow for shear supportive of updraft organization. The main limiting factor again is with an organized trigger and the amount of instability. While SPC has the area in a marginal risk, think the probability for an isolated severe storm is highest across the Lower Hudson Valley with the main threat from damaging winds and potentially hail.

Convection may linger towards or just after sunset with the cold front passage, but the severe concern diminishes quickly with loss of heating. Any lingering showers should diminish through the rest of the evening.

Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected today. Winds will likely gust 25 to 30 mph, especially across NE NJ, NYC metro, and the Lower Hudson Valley where mixing is maximized.

The cold front pushes through likely just before or around midnight and will finally start to filter in a drier airmass in a westerly flow.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The upper level low will be centered to our north most of Sunday as it very gradually shifts east. Some energy rotating around the low will aid in pushing a secondary cold front through the area in the evening hours. Some light rain showers are possible with this feature, mainly across the interior. No thunder is forecast. Skies also likely fill in around 4 kft, leading to mostly cloudy conditions for the afternoon. In the cooler airmass, highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Surface troughing could continue into Monday as the low lingers off the New England coast. Dry and sunny conditions are expected with similar high temperatures as Sunday.

Both days could be gusty with some deeper mixing each day. 25 to 30 mph gusts are expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Message:

* A frontal system likely impacts the region beginning Wednesday, and continues into Thursday, and possibly into Friday.

No significant changes were made to the forecast for Tuesday into the end of the week, as a frontal system remains likely to impact the region late Tuesday night into Friday. An upper closed low develop over the mid section into the upper Midwest by late Tuesday night, and then the upper trough deepens and the closed low and upper trough are slow to move eastward into the beginning of next weekend. At the surface a deepening low moves out of the Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. This low then moves slowly across the northeast Thursday into Friday in association of the upper low becoming nearly stacked. With a secondary surface low developing late Wednesday into Wednesday night and increased precipitable waters values and lift, there is the potential for a period of moderate rainfall.
Also, depending on the track of the low Thursday's temperatures are more uncertain. However, overall temperatures will be near or slightly below normal levels Tuesday through Friday.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A warm front moves through the area during the day. A cold front moves across the region late this evening.

IFR/LIFR conditions persist for KHPN, KBDR, KGON this morning but should improve fairly quickly over the next few hours.
Otherwise, VFR expected outside of any showers or TSRA. -SHRA possible at the NYC terminals through early afternoon. Some TSRA have developed outside of the NYC terminals and may impact KHPN and KSWF through 16Z/17Z. If these persist, KBDR may end up seeing TSRA by 16-17Z.

Another low chance of additional SHRA or TSRA this afternoon, though the best chance remains for KSWF. Kept PROB30 to convey the expected isolated nature of the TSRA, if any form at all.

South winds this morning increase to 10-15kt with some gusts 17-23kt late morning through the afternoon. With a cold front passage late this evening winds shift to the W/NW, and may become gusty late tonight. Gusts are more likely during the day Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few light showers possible this morning, with no impacts to conditions. Thunderstorm chances for late day into the evening is low and continued the PROB30. There is a chance that thunder does not occur.


OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance of showers inland with MVFR possible. W winds G20-30kt.

Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt day into evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers likely, a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. E wind gusts 15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Fog should begin improving on the Long Island Sound with visibilities above 1 nm by 11 am. A marine weather statement continues until 11 am. Otherwise, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels for the most part today. However, some nearshore gusts could reach 25 kt, mainly in the NY Harbor and western LI Sound.

Winds pick back up on Sunday and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect during the daylight hours. Gusts could reach 25 to 30 kt, with seas over the ocean reaching 4-5 ft. There is potential for the SCA to be extended through Monday as marginal conditions are expected.

Winds and seas remain below advisory levels on all the forecast waters Tuesday into Wednesday. With the approach of a frontal system during Wednesday and easterly flow will be increasing and by late day SCA conditions may develop on the ocean waters. With the increased and persistent east flow into Thursday winds and seas on the ocean waters will likely be at SCA levels. As low pressure tracks northeast of the area Thursday night a northerly flow develops and winds diminish, however, ocean seas are likely to remain elevated into Thursday night.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.