Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Derby, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Hazardous wind chills continue into Monday morning.

2) Light snow/wintry mix possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

3) Temperatures continue below normal through the end of the week, warming to around normal next Sunday.

4) Chance of rain or snow next Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
High pressure continues to build in from the west while low pressure shifts farther offshore. While the pressure gradient is gradually weakening through tonight, winds remain elevated enough and air temps are cold enough to produce hazardous wind chills. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area with wind chills as low as -10F to -15F.

KEY MESSAGE 2
The next chance of precipitation comes late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the passage of a frontal system. A warm front pushes north through the area Tuesday with a cold front quickly following Tuesday night. Aloft, heights start falling late Tuesday with the approach of a shortwave after an upper level ridge axis shifts east.

QPF overall looks light. Blended in some NBM90th with the NBM given the deterministic NBM looked lower than latest deterministic guidance and latest LREF ensemble mean. This mainly affected the eastern half of the area. For many this will fall as all snow, but there is some uncertainty now with rain and or sleet mixing in for parts of northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island. Latest forecast has up to an inch of snow for eastern CT and eastern LI with a few tenths to half an inch elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Mean upper trough will remain across eastern Canada into the Northeast, keeping the area below normal. However, it will be warmer than the recent stretch of cold weather that began the last week of January.

On the heels of a cold frontal passage, Wednesday will feature the arrival of another shot of cold air and gusty NW flow (up to 25 mph). High pressure over the Midwest will then build east through the upcoming weekend. Expect highs mainly in the lower to mid 30s, with lows in the teens inland and the lower 20s at the coast. The coldest days will be Thursday and Friday with temperatures about 5 to 8 degrees below normal.


KEY MESSAGE 4
Both the dynamical and AI global models continue to show a wide range of solutions and run to run variability of low pressure impacting the east coast late next weekend. The cross polar flow we have seen of late becomes cutoff as the southern branch of the polar jet becomes dominant across the lower 48 during this time. In addition, short term signals AO, NAO, PNA all showing a breakdown of the blocking pattern that has kept the area unseasonably cold and stormy over the western Atlantic. Low track will be critical with marginally cold airmass in place.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure builds W of the region through Monday.

VFR.

NW winds will continue to diminish overnight. Winds remain NW Monday morning, 10-15kt, becoming more WNW and diminishing Monday afternoon. Occasional gusts are possible at KGON late Monday morning into the afternoon. Light NW/VRB winds Monday night.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, MVFR possible in a chance of light snow inland and rain and snow along the coast late day and into the night.

Wednesday through Friday: VFR. NW winds with gusts 15-25kt Wednesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean and a Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect for all waters except the South Shore Bays.

Gusty conditions will gradually decrease tonight through early Monday. By late Monday sub-SCA conditions are expected.

SCA conditions will be possible on the ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday night in a NW flow following a cold frontal passage. Winds and seas subside Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds in from the west.

CLIMATE
Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sun Feb 8:

KEWR: 18/1985 KBDR: 18/1994 KNYC: 8/1895 KLGA: 21/1985 KJFK: 22/1967 KISP: 20/1985

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934 KBDR: 5/1963 KNYC: -15/1934 KLGA: 7/1979 KJFK: 8/1979 KISP: 5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all time record lows for those sites. Temperatures are not expected to fall to those levels.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353- 355.