NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
705 AM Update:

Very quiet weather conditions this morning, which will be the theme for the next several days. No changes made to the forecast as of this update, please see the previous discussion below.

145 AM Update:

Center of a 1022 mb surface anticyclone was located near Binghamton NY per regional METARs; this high pressure was supplying light winds and clear skies into Southern New England early this morning. The customary large variation in current temps exists in such a regime, with temps ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s in the typically cooler spots, and the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban areas, the hilly terrain and the coasts. Could see patchy river valley fog develop in interior New England toward daybreak, but it should be short-lived and erode quickly with sunrise.

The aforementioned high pressure cell will gradually progress ESE into the waters offshore of southeastern New England through today. Wall to wall sun is expected which will push highs well into the 70s/spot 80 degrees for most. However local seabreezes are expected to develop on both coasts, and that will keep highs in the lower 70s. But all in all, another beautiful day on tap for Southern New England.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
145 AM Update:

Tonight:

High pressure to remain parked offshore, allowing for continued dry weather to prevail, along with good radiational cooling.
850 mb temps are a little warmer, around +11 to +13C, and that should yield low temps a little warmer, in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s given the expected strong radiational cooling.
Dewpoints/moisture levels are also a little higher too, and that could bring a better chance at radiation fog away from the typical river valley locations. Visby guidance seems to indicate eastern CT as well as RI and MA as being most vulnerable to fog development, as well as in/around I-495 in MA, in the overnight to early morning hrs. Indicated fog in the forecast for these locations, but the bigger deterrent to fog development is how dry we've been with a lack of significant rainfall spanning several days.

Thursday:

Any fog which developed overnight to dissipate shortly after sunrise. High pressure will continue to bring a light southerly wind and dry weather to Southern New England. There is a low- amplitude and shortwave trough which moves across northern New England; the lack of lower level moisture with this feature should mean this trough passes through with little fanfare, however probably will see more partly sunny skies than the mostly clear skies we've seen the last couple days. It looks like S/SW winds will keep the seabreeze from developing, except along the immediate south coast, and perhaps into the North Shore area in MA. Highs should reach well into the 70s to the low 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Highlights:

* High pressure remains in control through early next week, allowing for continued dry weather.

The extended forecast remains largely unchanged after reviewing the 00z guidance. As mentioned, the Northeast is under the influence of a mid-level ridge and surface high-pressure Thursday night through early next week. Expect dry conditions throughout the extended period, with the only wrinkle occurring sometime Friday, perhaps the afternoon, as a weak shortwave moves along the outer periphery of the mid-level high over southern New England. BUFKIT soundings show very little vertical saturation, suggesting perhaps a few cumulus clouds with a very low chance of an isolated shower. Global ensembles, includes DESI, show a low probability (less than 10%) for 0.01" of precipitation over 24 hours. As a result, there was no need to deviate from the NBM POPs, which remain below 5% during this period. The center of the high settles over the region by the weekend and may remain in place through Tuesday. The next chance for any wetting rain appears to arrive late next week.

As for temperatures, expect a gradual warm-up, with the warmest days from Friday to Sunday. Highs will reach the upper 70s to the mid- 80s, at the coast a tad cooler in the upper 70s. Given our set up of clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling is likely, and overnight lows were adjusted using a blend of the 10th percentile of the NBM. Expect lows in the low to mid-50s through Tuesday.

There is activity in the Eastern Atlantic along the Intertropical Convergence Zone, where one area shows modest probabilities, greater than 60% of development over the next 7 days, while a secondary area shows less than 40% chance of development over the next 7 days, that is according to NHC.
Fortunately for our region, strong surface high and mid-level steering should keep any tropical impacts away - for now.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update: High confidence.

Through 12z Wednesday: High confidence.

VFR; possible river valley fog at BAF in the 1/2-3 SM range around 09-12z. Light north winds, calm at times.

Today: High confidence.

VFR. Winds start light northerly but will trend light SE/S as the day progresses. Seabreezes developing around 14-15z at BOS and around 17-19z at PVD; winds become light southerly at these airports between 23z Wed-00z Thu.

Tonight: High confidence overall, though is moderate on fog development.

Mainly VFR; higher moisture levels would favor a better chance for patchy radiation fog in southeast MA and RI and into portions of eastern CT after 06z Thurs. May need to introduce mention of BR/FG for the Cape airports and perhaps into PVD too with later TAFs issuances. Light SE to S winds, calm at times.

Thursday: High confidence.

Any fog which developed overnight becomes VFR early Thurs AM.
S/SW winds around 5-10 kt; looks like eastern MA seabreeze stays offshore of KBOS.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Seabreeze develops around 15z Wed and becomes a light southerly wind around 00z Thurs.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. River valley fog may develop near the airport 09-12z Wed but should not cause visby restrictions. Otherwise VFR with light winds becoming southerly around 5 kt this aftn.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

145 AM Update:

Through Thursday: High confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters today and parks itself there over the next several days. Light winds with daily sea breezes are expected, and seas 2 ft or less expected.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.