Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Misquamicut, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:19PM Saturday December 14, 2019 11:36 PM EST (04:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:50PMMoonset 10:18AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 904 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect through Sunday evening...
Overnight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Patchy fog late this evening.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Sun night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed through Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 904 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strong low pres will lift north of new england overnight, tracking up into quebec by morning. Westerly gales tonight through Sun night. High pres builds briefly over the waters on Mon, then is followed by a storm system approaching from the southwest Mon night. This low will lift northeast over southern new england early Tue. Westerly gales possible Wed into Wed night. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Misquamicut, RI
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location: 41.33, -71.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 150235 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 935 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS.

Low pressure will lift north of the region this evening followed by drier but windy conditions. Dry and blustery conditions will continue Sunday. A frontal system passing just south of Southern New England may spread a period of snow to wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday. A strong Arctic front then ushers in a period of scattered snow showers and much below normal temperatures by mid to late week. Gradual moderation by the weekend, through temperatures should remain at below normal levels.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/.

935 PM Update .

Rapidly intensifying low pressure has lifted in Quebec and allowed for increasing SW flow. This has resulted in even most of the interior mixing out their inversion with most locations currently in the 50s. The fog has also pretty much scoured out, except for a bit of fog across the Cape/Islands which should improve soon.

Otherwise, dry weather prevails for the remainder of the night except for a few rain/snow showers along the east slopes of the Berks. Winds should increase after midnight as lapse rates begin to steepen with colder air working into the region aloft. Expect SW wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph to develop overnight, except gusts between 45 and 50 mph across the Islands where lapse rates will be maximized with the flow over the ocean. Therefore, wind advisories go into effect for the Islands after midnight.

While it will turn cooler, it will remain well above freezing in most locations overnight. Low temps will only drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Sunday .

Strong west winds will be the main story as deep low pres lifts north across eastern Canada. Steep low level lapse rates will promote a deep and well mixed boundary layer with soundings supporting gusts 40-50 mph. Strongest gusts expected over the higher terrain and Islands. We expanded the wind advisory across much of MA along and north of the Pike as well as east coastal MA and Cape Cod. Otherwise, a mainly dry day with sunshine becoming mixed with clouds as some low level moisture is present. However, can't rule out a few lake effect snow showers spilling across the Berkshires. Most cloud cover will be in the interior. Highs will range from upper 30s to mid 40s.

Sunday night .

Still gusty into the evening with potential for 35-45 mph gusts but winds will gradually diminish through the overnight as gradient relaxes and high pres approaches from the west. Mainly clear skies with lows dropping into the upper teens to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Highlights .

* Increasing confidence for plowable snow, and/or snow and icy roads, Monday overnight into Tuesday across interior MA/CT into RI. Impact to the Tuesday AM commute from snow and/or mixed precip. Accumulations to depend on thermal structure and p-type changes, details on both are still uncertain. * Scattered snow showers and possible snow squalls Wednesday afternoon into early evening ahead of Arctic cold front.

* Well below normal temperatures, with single digit to below-zero wind chills, for Wednesday night into Thursday.

* Gradual moderation, though just less below-normal temps by Friday into the weekend. Details .

After a brief shot of colder air Sunday night, temperatures start to moderate somewhat with warm advection into the first part of Monday. GFS and ECMWF ensemble means then show a lead shortwave trough moving out from the Plains states into the Northeast states late Monday into Tuesday. This lead feature, with some interaction from a stronger polar trough digging SE from the northern Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes, will spread a surface low/frontal system from the OH Valley to Southern New England and look to spread a period of wintry wx for Monday night into Tuesday. The polar trough mentioned then becomes the primary feature, with a shot of modified-Arctic air overspreading a good part of New England to end the workweek. Though there's greater spread in the guidance beyond Friday, the shot of well below normal temperatures looks generally short, with moderating temperatures for the weekend.

Monday:

Chilly start, though gradual warming through much of the day amid weak high pressure, modest warm advection and daytime sun becoming increasingly filtered moving through the day. BUFKIT soundings still show considerable dry air below 800 mb across much of the region so looking for a dry forecast through sunset; but the dry air from low- levels to sfc is an indication that temperatures may cool to wet- bulb values once steadier precip gets going later Monday night.

Monday Night Through Tuesday Night:

** Confidence on Wintry Weather Increasing for Monday Night thru Tuesday **

Warm front will begin to lift across coastal RI into southern CT early Monday night, with precip spreading northward across most of Southern New England late Monday night and into Tuesday. This again looks to be a mixed precip event with multiple p-types/changes for parts of the area, with greatest period of impact appearing to be Monday overnight into the first part of Tuesday.

Biggest sources of uncertainty on forecast accumulations and impact are from thermal structure, potential for bands and event total QPF. Wet-bulb temps look cold enough off most models to fall as frozen precip at least initially. Eastern/SE MA into central/southern RI should eventually see temps warming to near/above freezing levels. Models also continue to vary on how quickly to advance a warm nose northward into the colder air, which would affect precipitation types and changeovers even in the interior. The past few runs of the GFS have extended its warm nose further north the soonest; so the GFS would offer a somewhat shorter period of snow and a quicker transition to mixed precip and/or rain by Tuesday afternoon. ECMWF remains the coldest, and would keep snow hanging on longest at least into western/central and northern MA, and more of a snow to mixed- precip scenario across northern CT into central/northern RI. Canadian GEM is something in between when it comes to thermal structure. GFS does indicate a ribbon of 850-700 mb frontogenetic forcing, on the nose of 850 mb southerly speed convergence, lifting from S to N overnight into early Tuesday morning that may force steadier/heavier periods of precip in that period of time. While models have trended somewhat wetter compared to morning runs, I do note that synoptic features in mid-levels aren't closed off, giving an impression of a generally progressive system with (at least at the moment) a relatively short accumulation period.

Ensemble probabilities of "plowable" snow (> 3 inches) are around 60- 70 percent across interior MA into northern CT/northern RI on the ECMWF ensemble; the more warmer GFS shifts this axis more into interior New England. Think this does convey the forecast uncertainty especially hinging on thermal structure and p-type transition zones.

In terms of accumulations, a first shot would be something in the 3- 5" range along the Route 2 corridor into NE MA away from the coast, amounts then may look like a 2-4" with a bit of freezing rain from the Mass Pike/I-95 southward through Bristol County MA into the Hartford/Providence corridor (with a transition from less snow and more PL/FZRA accretions further south one goes). Slushy C-2" and mainly cold rain along the E/SE MA coast into coastal S RI. Above initial scenario more closely follows the international guidance than the milder GFS. Uncertainties stated earlier may increase or decrease those totals, perhaps by a few inches. It is possible that some areas could see marginal warning-criteria accumulations towards northern MA though see this as being at least an Advisory event for the interior; given questions on p-types throwing a monkey wrench into accumulations, confidence wasn't high enough to hoist Watches.

Confidence is increasing on the overnight into the Tuesday AM commute being adversely impacted with snow and/or iced up roads, especially areas near/north of Route 6 in CT-RI and near/NW of I-95. Snow and/or sleet should be mixing in Tuesday across northern into central/west-central MA, with sleet/freezing rain transition zone trudging northward. Coastal MA/RI into part of SE MA may only see a shorter period of wintry weather before changing to a cold rain, with mild water temps resulting in warmer 2-m temps that may switch p-type from wintry to rain sooner. All areas change back to a brief bit of snow as surface low pulls away from the coast by Tuesday evening.

Wednesday:

Cold advection plunges in on NW winds on early Wednesday, as we await the strong northern stream trough and sharp Arctic cold front for the second part of the day into early evening. BUFKIT soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and shallow wintertime convective instability during the mid-aftn to early evening hrs with some shallow moisture. That could open the door for scattered snow showers or even some snow squalls with the frontal zone. Timing this front through will be critical and there exists the potential for low-visibility snow bursts/snow squalls during the Wednesday PM commute.

Wednesday Night into Thursday Night:

Core of the Arctic air plunges into Southern New England behind the Arctic front Wednesday evening. GFS/ECMWF differ on how cold low- level temperatures get, but there's multi-model signal for -15 to - 18C 850 mb air invading a large part of Southern New England Wednesday night. With lows in the single digits to low teens and winds 15-20 mph Wednesday night, likely looking at a period of sub- zero wind chills by early Thursday morning from the I-95 corridor, and wind chills around 0-5 above towards the E/SE Mass coast into southern RI.

Although Thursday looks dry as ridging builds into the region, it still looks quite chilly with highs only in the teens to low 20s and wind chills around 0-10 above. Winds slacken into Thursday night as high pressure centers itself over western New England, with good radiational cooling bringing single digit to mid teens lows.

Friday into the Weekend:

Does look like the period of well below normal temperatures is pretty short-lived. While still below normal, slow/gradual moderation in temperatures then looks to prevail Friday into Saturday. Compared to the -15 to -18C 850 mb temps from Wed nite into Thurs, these are around -3 to -6C by 12z Sunday. This part of the forecast is overall on the dry side, with the next chance for precip coming from a Clipper system by the end of the weekend.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/ .

00z TAF Update:

Rest of tonight . High confidence in trends, moderate confidence on timing. Mist/fog should become less prevalent early, through IFR conditions due to low ceilings should continue until overnight. Gradual improvement in cigs to MVFR-VFR levels by morning. Winds to become SW/WSW with developing gusts 25-35 kts, nearing 40 kts towards eastern MA, the Cape and Islands by sunrise.

Sunday . High confidence. VFR with sct-bkn cigs 4-5k ft developing. West wind gusts 35-40 kt, with 40-45 kt possible over higher terrain and Cape/Islands.

Sunday night . High confidence. VFR. Gradually diminishing wind but reaming gusty.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN.

Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. RA, PL, chance SN, FZRA.

Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA likely, FZRA, PL likely, chance SN.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SHSN.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

MARINE. Short Term /through Sunday Night/ .

Gale warnings in place for all waters tonight into Sunday evening. Expect increasing SW winds tonight with gusts 35-40 kt after midnight, and 40-45 kt west gusts over open waters on Sunday. Winds slowly diminish during Sunday night. Generally improving visibilities through sunrise Sunday.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain, snow likely, freezing rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Sunday for MAZ023-024. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for MAZ002>016-018- 019-021-022-026. RI . Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Sunday for RIZ008. MARINE . Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>234-251-255-256. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ230. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ236. Gale Warning until 11 PM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ250-254.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/Loconto NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . KJC/Loconto MARINE . KJC/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi55 min WSW 8.9 G 22 50°F 47°F990.5 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi55 min 50°F 47°F991.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 28 mi55 min SW 18 G 25 50°F 42°F989.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 28 mi61 min WSW 16 G 31 50°F 44°F989.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi112 min WSW 13 50°F 989 hPa50°F
PRUR1 33 mi55 min 52°F 47°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi49 min W 14 G 24 51°F 989.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 36 mi49 min SW 22 G 26 51°F 44°F989.3 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi55 min WSW 12 G 19 52°F 41°F988.7 hPa
PVDR1 39 mi55 min SW 15 G 22 53°F 988.9 hPa46°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 41 mi37 min SW 32 G 35 49°F 990 hPa (+0.6)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi49 min SW 23 G 27 50°F 989 hPa
FRXM3 42 mi55 min 51°F 46°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 43 mi55 min 51°F 45°F989.7 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi37 min 51°F15 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI1 mi44 minWSW 14 G 2410.00 miOvercast51°F42°F71%990.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT13 mi41 minWSW 15 G 2510.00 miOvercast48°F44°F86%990.6 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI16 mi41 minWSW 26 G 3310.00 miOvercast and Windy48°F43°F83%991.3 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi43 minWSW 16 G 25 mi50°F42°F74%991.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmN3N3N4N44SE7SE8SE10SE8SE7SE7SE6E4E5E7NE6N5NE4N5N6N6N4NE8
2 days agoW43NW7NW8NW6
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6553NW7NW9N7N9N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island (2)
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Watch Hill Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:16 AM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:41 AM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:02 PM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:08 PM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.6-0-0.3-0.20.311.72.533.12.82.11.20.4-0.1-0.3-0.10.411.62.22.52.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:43 AM EST     -3.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:37 AM EST     3.26 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:06 PM EST     -3.88 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:10 PM EST     3.23 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8-0.9-2.3-3-3.2-2.5-1.10.51.933.22.41.1-0.7-2.5-3.5-3.9-3.5-2.3-0.612.53.22.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.