Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stonington, CT

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonable today, but summer heat and humidity returns Wed through the weekend. Diurnal scattered thunderstorms possible each day.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable today, but summer heat and humidity returns Wed through the weekend. Diurnal scattered thunderstorms possible each day.

A weak high pressure builds in today in the wake of a cold front, bringing clearing skies and dry weather with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Dew points begin to surge into the mid 70s Wednesday, peaking Thursday and Friday, and linger into the weekend as a Bermuda high builds in across the western Atlantic Ocean. Prolonged southerly flow will advect those warmer dew points into southern New England through the second half of the week, leading to near oppressive humidity at times. 925mb temperatures surge to near +22C each afternoon this week, leading to high temps 85-90 every day. Combined with dew points of 72-76, heat headlines are being considered through the second half of the week and possibly into the weekend.

Regarding the thunderstorm potential later in the week... a few weak, upper level disturbances passing through New England combining with the high heat/humidity and just enough instability will likely be enough to pop a few diurnal showers/thunderstorms each day Thursday through the weekend.
PWATs anywhere from 1.75" to 2.10" will also provide enough potential for storms to be water loaded with torrential downpours.

AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Through Tonight: High Confidence.

VFR. West winds 5-10 kts becoming SW after 18Z, with seabreezes at BOS and PVD. Mid to high level cloud deck lingers along the Cape and Island terminals, dropping to MVFR late tonight after sunset.

Wednesday: Moderate Confidence.

Generally VFR with southwesterly flow. Chances for dirunal showers, but uncertain on where exactly they could pop.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. W winds become SW this morning with potential for a late- day sea breeze.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

SCA's continue for the outer waters as seas slowly subside throughout the day. Winds generally below 10 kts, except a few gusts up to 18 kts possible across the northern waters later this afternoon. A Rip Current Statement remains in effect along the southern coastal and Island communities today as rough seas and longer period swells slowly subside.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020- 023-024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ235- 237-250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255- 256.