Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stonington, CT
December 5, 2023 9:36 AM EST (14:36 UTC)
Sunrise 6:56AM Sunset 4:19PM Moonrise 12:16AM Moonset 1:39PM
ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 623 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of snow showers, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of snow showers, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 623 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Weak high pressure builds in today, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and weakens Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into Friday night. High pressure offshore builds offshore Saturday. Offshore high pressure area moves farther away farther out into atlantic Saturday night.
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Weak high pressure builds in today, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and weakens Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into Friday night. High pressure offshore builds offshore Saturday. Offshore high pressure area moves farther away farther out into atlantic Saturday night.
Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 051131 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 631 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
Gradually turning colder into Wednesday. Snow showers possible tonight through Wednesday, especially across eastern MA. A few inches of accumulation is possible. Tranquil mid to late week along with warming temperatures through Sunday. Potentially a strong system arrives Sunday into Monday which could bring heavy rain, strong winds, and turbulent conditions to mariners.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Southern New England stays trapped between an offshore low pressure and a high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states. The result of this is expected to be a NW to N flow across most of our region. An inverted trough extending W from the offshore low should result in a chance of showers from late this morning into this evening across the Cape and islands. Despite being 5-10 degrees colder today, still looking at mostly rain today, at least until sunset. That opens the door for a light snowfall across the upper Cape and perhaps coastal Plymouth County.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Risk for light snow increases tonight into Wednesday morning as another offshore low pressure passes by well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. That track is expected to turn winds NE, directing some ocean-effect precipitation into portions of eastern MA, and especially across SE MA. The fly in the ointment will be the water temperature itself. Latest readings were right around 50 degrees F. While this should result in a moderate lapse rate between the surface and 850 mb, it is also likely to result in primarily rainfall along the immediate coast. This is still one one the uncertainties for this portion of the forecast.
While the dendritic growth zone looks to have plenty of humidity to work with, not seeing much signs of strong lift to maximize it. With the relatively warmer ground factored in also, thinking this event should be on the lighter end of the spectrum. That said, ensemble guidance showed rather high probability of 24-hour snowfall around an inch across Cape Ann and mostly Plymouth County, with only a 20-30% probability of more than 3 inches across portions of Plymouth County. Precipitation should diminish and move offshore Wednesday afternoon as winds N to NW once more.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Updated: 2:50 AM
* Chilly but dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
* Tranquil conditions Friday into Saturday along with warming temperatures.
* Mild for Sunday, but an approaching system may bring heavy rain and strong wind Sunday night into Monday.
Wednesday Night and Thursday: Drying out overnight with north wind becoming northwest around 10 to 15 mph, decreasing to 5 to 10 mph before dawn. A chilly start with morning low temperatures ranging from the teens and low-20s. Do bundle up, the feel like temperature for the morning commute is likely to be in the single digits to the low-teens. Over all an uneventful day, subtle mid-level height rises with the departure of a mid-level trough to the east and amplifying ridge over the Great Lakes. Guidance continues to show a decaying clipper from central Canada diving south with little moisture, by the time it arrives late Thursday morning PWATs fall to less than 1/3rd of an inch. Clouds increase during the morning with a festive flurry, no impacts, not out of the question. Opt to leave out the mention of a flurry from the forecast grids due to low confidence.
Do think if it occurs, greatest chances are across western MA & CT.
Afternoon temperatures remain well below normal due to the cold air aloft, 925mb temperatures are -4C top -6C. Expect highs in the mid- 30s, slightly cooler across the higher terrain and slightly warmer near the coast.
Friday and Saturday: Mid-level heights rise across the northeast with an amplifying ridge and a 1025mb high west of Bermuda. Flow is now out of the southwest, allowing for WAA. Temperatures gradually warm both days, reaching the mid-40s on Friday, and then a slightly warmer Saturday with highs in the low to middle-50s. Overnight low temperatures are in the low-30s Friday night and then the upper-30s Saturday night. Due to WAA, PWATs increase, and so do sky cover. The ensembles lean towards Friday being a mixture of sun and clouds, and Saturday more on the cloudy side. Southwest to south wind both days less than 10 mph.
Sunday and Monday: As mentioned in the previous AFD, we continue to monitor the potential for a robust rain and wind event during this time period. Would like to start off saying there is plenty of uncertainty with the overall timing given this is a day 6-7 forecast. Based off the latest 00z deterministic guidance there is inconstancy with the timing, now trending a little later Sunday and more significant the position of the developing low. There is still a fair bit of disagreement among the ensembles when it comes to position of the main low and whether or not a secondary low develops. The more significant part of this system likely to be strong winds. GFS, ECMWF, GEM continue to show a robust low level jet with winds at 900mb between 70 and 90 knots! While there is plenty of time for changes, as of now, core of the wind are sometime late Sunday night into Monday morning. When it comes to precipitation, likely an all rain event, given the strong WAA.
Ensembles indicate widespread 1.0 to 1.5 inch of rainfall, even a few low probs of up to 2.0 possible, less than 20 percent.
Once again, there is still plenty of uncertainty with the track and timing. But, it is still worth watching over the coming days. In addition, will be quite warm for early December, highs in the upper- 50s on Sunday, then cooling off to near normal highs on Monday near 50 degrees. Finally, if this were to materialize we would have to watch for possible coastal flooding/erosion to south facing beaches.
More to come over the coming days, stay tuned!
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
A scattered to broken deck of mainly VFR conditions early this morning. Areas of MVFR towards the NH/VT/MA border this morning. Diurnal clouds develop and lower this afternoon with a mix of low-end VFR to MVFR ceilings across eastern MA. Wind NNW less than 10 kt this afternoon.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
VFR/MVFR to start with MVFR cigs starting on the east coast of MA in light snow/rain showers, expanding west over all of eastern MA. Southeast MA terminals outside of Cape Cod (where it will be too warm) may see light accumulations of 1-3 inches, but confidence in accumulation is low to moderate. Light N/NE winds.
Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Widely varying conditions across southern New England during the morning. MVFR/IFR across eastern MA with some light snow/rain.
More likely to be VFR across the western half of southern New England. Trend to VFR during the afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF overall. Generally VFR with patches of MVFR clouds moving over the terminal this morning. More widespread MVFR at times this afternoon. Light rain to snow showers after 02z/04z tonight into the morning push on Wednesday.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Friday through Saturday: VFR.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Roughs seas should linger across the outer coastal waters early this morning. Winds should remain N to NW through today, but diminishing this afternoon before turning NE overnight. As an offshore low pressure passes by well SE of the waters Wed, winds return to N to NW and increase once more. Expecting Small Craft Advisories can be let go later today across the outer coastal waters. Reduced visibility in rain or snow across the eastern MA coastal waters tonight into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed once again by Wednesday afternoon.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ255.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ256.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 631 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
Gradually turning colder into Wednesday. Snow showers possible tonight through Wednesday, especially across eastern MA. A few inches of accumulation is possible. Tranquil mid to late week along with warming temperatures through Sunday. Potentially a strong system arrives Sunday into Monday which could bring heavy rain, strong winds, and turbulent conditions to mariners.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Southern New England stays trapped between an offshore low pressure and a high pressure over the Mid Atlantic states. The result of this is expected to be a NW to N flow across most of our region. An inverted trough extending W from the offshore low should result in a chance of showers from late this morning into this evening across the Cape and islands. Despite being 5-10 degrees colder today, still looking at mostly rain today, at least until sunset. That opens the door for a light snowfall across the upper Cape and perhaps coastal Plymouth County.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Risk for light snow increases tonight into Wednesday morning as another offshore low pressure passes by well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. That track is expected to turn winds NE, directing some ocean-effect precipitation into portions of eastern MA, and especially across SE MA. The fly in the ointment will be the water temperature itself. Latest readings were right around 50 degrees F. While this should result in a moderate lapse rate between the surface and 850 mb, it is also likely to result in primarily rainfall along the immediate coast. This is still one one the uncertainties for this portion of the forecast.
While the dendritic growth zone looks to have plenty of humidity to work with, not seeing much signs of strong lift to maximize it. With the relatively warmer ground factored in also, thinking this event should be on the lighter end of the spectrum. That said, ensemble guidance showed rather high probability of 24-hour snowfall around an inch across Cape Ann and mostly Plymouth County, with only a 20-30% probability of more than 3 inches across portions of Plymouth County. Precipitation should diminish and move offshore Wednesday afternoon as winds N to NW once more.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Updated: 2:50 AM
* Chilly but dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
* Tranquil conditions Friday into Saturday along with warming temperatures.
* Mild for Sunday, but an approaching system may bring heavy rain and strong wind Sunday night into Monday.
Wednesday Night and Thursday: Drying out overnight with north wind becoming northwest around 10 to 15 mph, decreasing to 5 to 10 mph before dawn. A chilly start with morning low temperatures ranging from the teens and low-20s. Do bundle up, the feel like temperature for the morning commute is likely to be in the single digits to the low-teens. Over all an uneventful day, subtle mid-level height rises with the departure of a mid-level trough to the east and amplifying ridge over the Great Lakes. Guidance continues to show a decaying clipper from central Canada diving south with little moisture, by the time it arrives late Thursday morning PWATs fall to less than 1/3rd of an inch. Clouds increase during the morning with a festive flurry, no impacts, not out of the question. Opt to leave out the mention of a flurry from the forecast grids due to low confidence.
Do think if it occurs, greatest chances are across western MA & CT.
Afternoon temperatures remain well below normal due to the cold air aloft, 925mb temperatures are -4C top -6C. Expect highs in the mid- 30s, slightly cooler across the higher terrain and slightly warmer near the coast.
Friday and Saturday: Mid-level heights rise across the northeast with an amplifying ridge and a 1025mb high west of Bermuda. Flow is now out of the southwest, allowing for WAA. Temperatures gradually warm both days, reaching the mid-40s on Friday, and then a slightly warmer Saturday with highs in the low to middle-50s. Overnight low temperatures are in the low-30s Friday night and then the upper-30s Saturday night. Due to WAA, PWATs increase, and so do sky cover. The ensembles lean towards Friday being a mixture of sun and clouds, and Saturday more on the cloudy side. Southwest to south wind both days less than 10 mph.
Sunday and Monday: As mentioned in the previous AFD, we continue to monitor the potential for a robust rain and wind event during this time period. Would like to start off saying there is plenty of uncertainty with the overall timing given this is a day 6-7 forecast. Based off the latest 00z deterministic guidance there is inconstancy with the timing, now trending a little later Sunday and more significant the position of the developing low. There is still a fair bit of disagreement among the ensembles when it comes to position of the main low and whether or not a secondary low develops. The more significant part of this system likely to be strong winds. GFS, ECMWF, GEM continue to show a robust low level jet with winds at 900mb between 70 and 90 knots! While there is plenty of time for changes, as of now, core of the wind are sometime late Sunday night into Monday morning. When it comes to precipitation, likely an all rain event, given the strong WAA.
Ensembles indicate widespread 1.0 to 1.5 inch of rainfall, even a few low probs of up to 2.0 possible, less than 20 percent.
Once again, there is still plenty of uncertainty with the track and timing. But, it is still worth watching over the coming days. In addition, will be quite warm for early December, highs in the upper- 50s on Sunday, then cooling off to near normal highs on Monday near 50 degrees. Finally, if this were to materialize we would have to watch for possible coastal flooding/erosion to south facing beaches.
More to come over the coming days, stay tuned!
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
A scattered to broken deck of mainly VFR conditions early this morning. Areas of MVFR towards the NH/VT/MA border this morning. Diurnal clouds develop and lower this afternoon with a mix of low-end VFR to MVFR ceilings across eastern MA. Wind NNW less than 10 kt this afternoon.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
VFR/MVFR to start with MVFR cigs starting on the east coast of MA in light snow/rain showers, expanding west over all of eastern MA. Southeast MA terminals outside of Cape Cod (where it will be too warm) may see light accumulations of 1-3 inches, but confidence in accumulation is low to moderate. Light N/NE winds.
Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Widely varying conditions across southern New England during the morning. MVFR/IFR across eastern MA with some light snow/rain.
More likely to be VFR across the western half of southern New England. Trend to VFR during the afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF overall. Generally VFR with patches of MVFR clouds moving over the terminal this morning. More widespread MVFR at times this afternoon. Light rain to snow showers after 02z/04z tonight into the morning push on Wednesday.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Friday through Saturday: VFR.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Roughs seas should linger across the outer coastal waters early this morning. Winds should remain N to NW through today, but diminishing this afternoon before turning NE overnight. As an offshore low pressure passes by well SE of the waters Wed, winds return to N to NW and increase once more. Expecting Small Craft Advisories can be let go later today across the outer coastal waters. Reduced visibility in rain or snow across the eastern MA coastal waters tonight into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed once again by Wednesday afternoon.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ255.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ256.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KWST WESTERLY STATE,RI | 5 sm | 43 min | W 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 37°F | 28°F | 70% | 29.99 | |
| KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT | 8 sm | 40 min | NW 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 39°F | 28°F | 65% | 30.00 | |
| KMTP MONTAUK,NY | 17 sm | 42 min | NW 09G18 | -- | 43°F | 28°F | 57% | 30.01 | ||
| KBID BLOCK ISLAND STATE,RI | 20 sm | 40 min | NNW 14G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 37°F | 27°F | 65% | 29.99 |
Wind History from WST
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut
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Stonington
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:52 AM EST 2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM EST 0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:38 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 02:57 PM EST 2.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:18 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 09:24 PM EST 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:52 AM EST 2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM EST 0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:38 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 02:57 PM EST 2.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:18 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 09:24 PM EST 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 2.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 2.3 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:46 AM EST 1.92 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:15 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:12 AM EST -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:31 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:39 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 02:11 PM EST 1.69 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:19 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:33 PM EST -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:49 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:46 AM EST 1.92 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:15 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:12 AM EST -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:31 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:39 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 02:11 PM EST 1.69 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:19 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:33 PM EST -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:49 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| -0.8 |
| 7 am |
| -1.6 |
| 8 am |
| -2.1 |
| 9 am |
| -1.9 |
| 10 am |
| -1.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 8 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.8 |
Boston, MA,
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