Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mystic, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Impacts are not anticipated through at least Saturday.
Conditions potentially meeting advisory or warning criteria are not expected.

2) There is a chance for light rain and/or snow Sunday night through Monday, however, uncertainty remains high.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Dry weather is anticipated through Saturday with only a stray snow shower or flurry possible Friday night due to a shortwave and surface trough shifting through. Very limited to no impacts with this. Temperatures still below normal, but highs each day at least in the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2
A lot of uncertainty remains among the global models with a deepening low pressure system that is expected to move off the east coast Sunday night and pass to the south then northeast Monday into Monday night. With this uncertainty the NBM was followed for the probabilities and weather. However, precipitation type and amounts are highly dependent on the track that the storm eventually takes.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure builds in from the west through Thursday.

VFR. WNW winds 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt continue into at least the evening. A few gusts may approach 30 kt. Gusts likely persist tonight, though may become more occasional or subside for a period after 6Z Thu. Flow veers more NW on Thursday, with frequent gusts returning everywhere by mid morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few 30 kt gusts possible into late day.

Gusts overnight into Thu AM may be more occasional at times.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. WNW winds G15-20kt.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of snow inland and either snow/rain at the NYC metros/coast at night.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions on all waters continue through Thursday. An occasional gust to gale force is possible for the ocean waters this afternoon/evening. For the non-ocean waters, the advisory may be able to be shortened to exclude most of Thursday afternoon, and for the ocean waters, the SCA conditions could last into Thursday evening due to gusts. In both cases, not enough confidence to change the advisory, which currently ends Thursday afternoon on all waters. Sub-advisory conditions otherwise follow through Friday afternoon before marginal gusts return on the ocean Friday night.

Winds and seas are expected to be below advisory levels Saturday through Sunday night. There is uncertainty with the track, and strength, of low pressure passing to the south Sunday night, and to the northeast Monday. Currently there is a chance of borderline SCA conditions on the ocean waters, gusts and seas, Monday into Monday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.