Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mystic, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Low pressure center is expected to pass about 100 miles to the east of Montauk late day/early this evening and head north towards the Gulf of Maine overnight. Rain/showers become less likely through the night as the storm shifts away, but the threat remains all night with a cyclonic flow aloft and weak shortwave lift passing nearby.
Northerly winds diminish through the night with lows in the 40s, but still a few degrees above record lows for May 23rd. See the climate section below for more details.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Cyclonic flow aloft remains over the region during the short term period as an h5 low meanders over New England. For Friday, still a good amount of cloud cover with plenty of moisture below 700mb.
Thinking is that the day begins as cloudy with partial sunshine developing in the afternoon. The daytime heating combined with the cold pool aloft and some shortwave lift could trigger scattered showers mainly in the afternoon, but likely with not enough instability for a thunderstorm. High temperatures below normal by 5- 10 degrees, ranging from the upper 50s well inland to the low-mid 60s for coastal locations.

Some improvement for Saturday is anticipated with fewer clouds and slightly warmer temperatures. It likely remains dry for the entire area, but still cannot rule out an isolated shower NW of the city during the afternoon as shortwave approaches.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Sat night and Sunday will feature partly cloudy skies with below normal temps as cyclonic flow continues around the slowly weakening Maritimes low. Fcst for now is dry, but with the approach of an upper level jet streak and mid level shortwave from the NW can't entirely rule out some sprinkles or showers especially from NYC north/west. Sunday night/Mon look dry and milder, with temps near normal as high pressure builds form the west.

A weak low passing to the south should bring a chance of light rain mainly to the NYC metro area west for Tue night, and to most of the area on Wed, with temps once again below normal. Thu should see temps returning to normal, but with chances for showers mainly from NYC metro north/west as another trough approaches from the west.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low end MVFR and IFR cigs continue across the terminals this afternoon, along with period of rain, Gusts have been slow to develop but are increasing east of NYC. Gusts will be from the ENE 15G20-25kts. Conditions fall to IFR tonight, with some terminals possibly falling below IFR if any fog develops. There is also a low end chance that cigs remain MVFR.

Any IFR or lower cigs start to improve late morning/early afternoon on Friday. VFR will be possible Friday afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely mainly for changes in flight categories.
Gusts may be more occasional than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday afternoon: Chance of showers with MVFR conditions at times. N winds 10-15G20kt E of the NYC metros Thu evening.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-18kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, low end chance of MVFR in any showers/rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Gales end by this evening over the eastern waters. A SCA through at least midnight will probably be needed over eastern LI Sound and the eastern Bays. Meanwhile, a SCA will be needed on the ocean waters tonight into a part of Friday as seas remain elevated from a residual swell. Seas probably hover around 4ft thereafter through Saturday, but could be up to 5ft at times. There will probably be a long enough period of sub-5ft seas during this time frame such that the SCA wouldn't need to be extended beyond 16-18z Friday.

Quiet from Sat night through Tue night as winds and seas subside.



HYDROLOGY
Additional rainfall through tonight should not cause any significant hydrologic impacts. No impacts are expected through the rest of the forecast period as well.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A prolonged E-NE flow continues, backing N/NE toward evening.
This backing of winds should help limit the magnitude of coastal flooding for most areas, but potentially enhance impacts along Peconic and Gardiners Bay and north shore of LI.

The latest forecaster adjusted Stevens (75th percentile weighting), ETSS, PETSS STOFS guidance blend signals widespread minor coastal flooding for the south shore of Nassau County, the twin forks of LI (localized moderate impacts possible for north facing areas along the bayfront), and along much of LI Sound.

Localized minor coastal flooding likely for NY/NJ harbor where winds will back to the N/NNE earlier. Magnitude of coastal flooding for central and eastern great South Bay, Moriches, and Shinnecock bays will depend on tidal piling trends, but looks to be localized here.

For Fri evening high tide, coastal flooding looks to be more localized for the Fri eve high tide cycle, to southern Nassau and SW CT, in response to offshore flow and subsiding onshore swells.

Potential for localized coastal flooding Sun into early next week with approach of new moon, causing areas to need as little as 1/4ft of tidal departure for minor coastal flooding.

As far as shoreline impacts, along the north shore of the south fork of Long Island, breaking waves of 1 to 3 ft may cause dune erosion and localized washovers, as well as enhance splashover and flooding onto shoreline roads and properties. Along the ocean front and Orient Point, breaking waves of 4 to 6 ft on an east to west sweep will result in beach erosion and beach flooding during the times of high tide. Localized dune erosion is possible. Along the north shore of Long Island, breaking waves of 3 to 4 ft will cause dune erosion, localized washovers, as well as enhance splashover and flooding onto shoreline roads and properties.

The OKX surf zone forecast season begins on Friday with a high rip current risk for all the ocean beaches. Various contributing factors include a 4-ft/9-sec E swell coming off today's high risk, with low tide in the morning, then an opposing WSW 10-15 flow in the afternoon leading to chaotic conditions.

The rip current risk for Saturday should be moderate as seas gradually subside.

Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend: RCMOS predicts a moderate rip current risk for Sunday, and a low risk for Memorial Day, and winds and seas continue to subside.

CLIMATE
Record minimum maximum (coldest high temperatures) are possible for today, May 22nd. Here are the records for today with the preliminary high temperature for the day as of 3pm:

NYC: 54/1894, high temp so far: 51 JFK: 55/1967, high temp so far: 55 LGA: 57/2003, high temp so far: 52 EWR: 56/2003, high temp so far: 53 BDR: 54/2005, high temp so far: 52 ISP: 54/2003, high temp so far: 53

The following are the record low temperatures for May 23rd:

NYC: 43/1963 JFK: 44/1963 LGA: 45/1963 EWR: 43/1931 BDR: 42/1963 ISP: 42/2006

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071- 073-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ079>081-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-340- 350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.