Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Essex Village, CT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A wave of low pressure pulls a frontal boundary farther offshore today while high pressure noses in from the northeast. Aloft, a mainly zonal flow is expected.

With high pressure nosing in from the northeast, some drier air filters in, but eastern CT and eastern LI are the main locations that will see the advantage of this as far as breaks of sun. Plenty of moisture will still be around in the low levels to keep mostly cloudy skies around for northeast NJ, NYC and western LI. Given this moisture and the potential for very weak lift (likely from surface to 900mb speed convergence), have reintroduced PoPs for these areas.
Still thinking the CAMs are overdone, but thinking at least slight chance/chance of light rain. This is not a washout by any means and much of the day should remain dry. Other areas likely stay dry with the influence of high pressure.

Stuck with NBM for highs today as it seems to reflect effects from differences in cloud cover well. The warm spots will likely be in eastern CT with some low 70s. Elsewhere expect 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Some very slight height rises are expected on Monday with shortwave ridging aloft. A similar surface pattern to Sunday is expected with high pressure remaining in place, weakening slightly. Dry conditions are expected. Went a bit cooler than the NBM as an easterly flow and some cloud cover will likely keep us from getting out of the upper 60s/lower 70s.

High pressure weakens more on Tuesday and the frontal boundary to our south starts returning north as a warm front. The front could move through as Tuesday night. This, and another wave of low pressure along the front will bring more rain to the area. The latest NAM and GFS are both hinting at the possibility of a long and skinny MUCAPE profile with pwat values around 2.25 inches early Wednesday morning. It is too early for specifics but there is potential for efficient rainfall with heavy downpours. At this time the storm motion appears to be around 30 kts. This trend will need to be monitored.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A low pressure system tracking through southern Canada Wednesday will bring a warm front through the region by late Wednesday.
A warm and humid airmass will then be in place for Wednesday night into Thursday. The forecast remains on track with the timing of a cold front passing through the region Thursday night. Increasing surface based CAPE, up to 1500 J/kg Thursday, along with increasing shear, and surface instability will result in thunderstorms, a few of which could contain briefly heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values have decreased a little from Saturday's forecasts, and storms will be moving rather quickly, which will lessen the impacts for excessive rainfall and potential hydrologic impacts. After the passage of the cold front an extended period of dry weather is expected as ridging increases to the west and moves into the region Friday night into next weekend. There is only a slight chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the interior Friday as a weak surface trough sets up, however, with increasing heights and subsidence, capping may prevent any development.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A stationary front will remain to the south of the terminals through tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure builds towards the terminals from the northeast today, and remains into tonight.

MVFR through the TAF period at the NYC metro terminals and east, except VFR at KGON. MVFR, becoming VFR at KBDR and KSWF by midday, with timing uncertain, depending how quickly high pressure builds in from the northeast. There is a chance that the NYC metro terminals briefly become VFR late this afternoon into the early evening, however, confidence is low.

There is a chance of light rain at the NYC metro terminals this morning with no impacts to visibilities or ceilings.

NE winds around 10 kt or less through the TAF period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement to VFR possible late Sunday afternoon into the early evening.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Late tonight: MVFR, except VFR likely at KGON and KSWF. A slight chance of light rain at the NYC metro terminals.

Monday: MVFR.

Tuesday: MVFR, IFR possible. A chance of showers at night.

Wednesday - Thursday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6AM this morning for 5 ft seas across the ocean waters from Sandy Hook to Moriches Inlet. Thereafter, a weak pressure gradient results in sub-SCA conditions through Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday winds and seas continue to remain below SCA levels on the forecast waters. However, with an increasing southwest flow, ahead of a cold front Thursday, ocean seas and gusts may briefly approach SCA levels late day into the early evening.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a low risk of rip currents today and Monday. The main wave component is an easterly wind wave 3-4 ft at 6-8s. A 1-2ft southeast swell at 7-9s also exists. Neither wave component is expected to bring anything above a low risk of rip currents.
Conditions were a bit more favorable on Saturday and most beaches reported low rip activity.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ353-355.