Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fremont, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) SPC has issued a Day 1 Slight Risk for portions of the Mahoning Valley and a Marginal Risk as far west as the I77 corridor given the increasing potential for severe weather this afternoon. There remains some uncertainty regarding how showers this morning will impact future convection.

2) An active pattern will bring additional chances of precipitation this week with increasing confidence in a potent low impacting the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Some strong to severe storms are possible, especially Wednesday night into Thursday.

3) Cooler temperatures expected to persist this week into next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Today, a cold front will push east across the area bringing the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Initial showers this morning should primarily be a result from decaying convection upstream and weak isentropic lift pushing north from south of the area. Given the overall weak environment this morning, chances for thunder are fairly limited.

A second round of more organized convection is expected to move across the area this afternoon into the evening hours along and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. This round of convection will be support by a strong short-wave pushing along the southern edge of an upper level trough and a strong prefrontal LLJ of 20-30 knots. In addition, increased southwest flow will increase dewpoints today into the 60s. The best environment for any severe weather looks to be along and east of I77 in Ohio and into NW Pennsylvania where there is the best chance for some destabilization between rounds of rain. Overall convection is expected to remain linear as it pushes east with the primary concern being strong wind gusts. SPC has also now highlighted the aforementioned portion of the CWA in a 2% tor for today given the potential for embedded rotation within the line. The overall outlook from SPC has not changed much this morning with portions of the Mahoning Valley in a Day 1 Slight Risk with a Marginal extending further wester to the I77 corridor. It is worth noting that there is some uncertainty regarding how the initial round of precipitation this morning will impact later convection chances as there is a potential it acts to stabilize the environment a bit more than currently forecast.

In addition to the severe potential today, there is a potential for localized heavy rainfall within the strongest storms. PWAT values climbing to 1.5-1.7 inches with generally skinny CAPE profiles suggests the potential for heavy rain, although given the cooler air advecting in, the warm cloud layers throughout the day should gradually decrease. Overall impacts should be limited to localized ponding on roadways and in typical flood prone areas. Any additional flooding concerns should be limited to areas that see multiple rounds of heavy precipitation today. To highlight this heavy rain potential, WPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal ERO for the entire area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The general pattern this week will consist of a broad upper level trough across the eastern two-thirds of the country with multiple embedded shortwaves expected to move east along the trough. This will result in multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms, including late Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak boundary pushes east.

The more notable, and potentially significant, system to impact the area is forecast to occur Wednesday into Thursday. A surface low originating near the lee of the Rockies is expected to strengthen as it pushes east-northeast into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday.
This potent surface low will be centered over the southern portion of the region, pushing a warm front east late Wednesday followed promptly by a cold front. Some model are beginning to suggest this low beginning to occlude just north of the area, potentially leaving northern Ohio near the triple point. Synoptically, this system will be supported with strong mid-level energy coupled with a very strong upper level jet. Although there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this system given how far out it is, there is growing concern regarding the severe weather potential Wednesday night as a strong LLJ (some models suggesting up to 60 knots) nudge northeast, further enhancing the already strong support for storm development. With the strong southwest flow, increased moisture advection will quickly increase dewpoints into the 60s overnight. The biggest uncertainty regarding this system at this point is how much instability the area will have to work with given the diurnally unfavorable timing.
Models continue to suggest that areas to the west of the CWA may see better instability, but confidence is low that this would hinder strong to severe convection over the area. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight northern Ohio in the Day 5 SWO.

In addition to the potential for severe weather, the area will likely be impacted by an anomalous strong wind field for this time of year. Given the LLJ and mixing heights, the entire area could see sustained winds of 20-25 mph with localized gusts in excess of 45 mph Wednesday night through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Cooler temperatures arrive today and are expected to stick around as a dominant ridging pattern develops over the western US. Highs today will only climb into the mid to upper 70s before overnight lows fall into the 50s for much of the area. In portions of NW PA, overnight lows may fall into the mid to upper 40s, which is well below average for this time of year. These unseasonably cool temperatures are expected to stick around with the CPC 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlooks both suggesting below average temperatures into the end of June.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Scattered light showers may lift northeast across the area overnight, but do not anticipate any impacts to cigs/vsbys given the relatively dry lower levels. There's a chance of shower coverage and isolated thunderstorm chances increasing after 12Z this morning, but most models have trended drier for this morning. The potential for cold frontal thunderstorms has trended later as well and as of now it appears that storms will be at KTOL/KFDY at around 17Z and KYNG by 20Z. In general, the best chance of non-VFR vsbys/cigs will occur with the storms and frontal passage, however cold air advection behind showers and thunderstorms may result in lingering MVFR ceilings NE OH/NW PA terminals through 06Z Monday.

Winds will be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 knots overnight before shifting to the northwest and increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots behind the cold front this afternoon into this evening. Afternoon/early evening storms could produce gusts to 30 to 40 knots with locally higher gusts possible in stronger storms. Winds will diminish a bit after 00Z Monday.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.

MARINE
Southwest winds 6 to 12 knots are expected through today with winds increasing by a few knots overnight into early Sunday. A cold front will cross the lake on Sunday, allowing winds to shift to the northwest. A period of winds to 15 to 20 knots is likely in the western basin of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon/evening, but confidence in Small Craft Advisory conditions occurring is low at this point. Headlines may be needed if winds trend a bit higher.

From there, Small Craft Advisories/Beach Hazards Statements may be needed as southwest flow deepens ahead of an approaching strong cold front Wednesday. NBM guidance suggests that winds could reach or exceed 30 knots on Thursday so will need to continue to monitor forecast trends in the upcoming days.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.