Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elyria, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A ridge at the surface and aloft lingers near the northern Great Lakes and New England through daybreak Wednesday as our CWA remains along the southern flank of the ridge. Elsewhere, a nearly vertically-stacked low at the surface and aloft drifts NNE'ward from the Lower MS Valley to the Lower OH Valley through midday Tuesday. Thereafter, the surface low should be absorbed by a surface trough in vicinity of the OH Valley as the low aloft wobbles ENE'ward toward the Mid OH Valley through daybreak Wednesday. Given the aforementioned weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft, low-level warm/moist air advection from the southern Gulf Stream will continue to impact northern OH and NW PA. The WAA regime will contribute to above-average lows mainly in the upper 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The combination of low-level WAA and peeks of sunshine should allow highs to reach mainly the upper 60's to upper 70's Tuesday afternoon.

Low-level moist isentropic ascent aloft, associated with the low pressure system's warm conveyor belt, is expected to release elevated, primarily weak instability and trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially this evening through daybreak Wednesday. Low-level convergence associated with the low's cyclonic circulation and resulting moist ascent amidst weak to perhaps moderate diurnal destabilization of the boundary layer may contribute to isolated shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon through early evening across roughly the southwestern-third of our CWA and should contribute to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development late Tuesday morning through early evening. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected since the low-level return flow of warm/moist air from the southern Gulf Stream will allow PWAT values to rise to unusually-large magnitudes in our CWA

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The upper level low over the Ohio Valley will open and lift through the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday. On Wednesday we will still be under the influence of a moist southerly flow with PW values near 90% on Wednesday afternoon. Instability of 500-1000 J/kg are expected to develop with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms forecast to develop again during the afternoon. Flow will be generally light with storm motion of 10-15 mph and some training will be possible. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s for another day. Lows on Wednesday night will be mild near 60 degrees.

As the upper level trough departs to the east on Thursday, shortwave ridging will build overhead. Chances of precipitation will tend to exit to the east on Thursday morning with just a lingering isolated shower possible during the afternoon. Southerly return flow kicks in on Thursday with temperatures warming to near 80 degrees as a warm front extending from low pressure over the Upper Midwest lifts across the area. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday night from west to east ahead of the associated cold front wrapping in from the west.
Moderate instability looks to advect into the region by Thursday evening and will need to monitor for some thunderstorms to be strong or possibly severe as they approach the I- 75 corridor Thursday evening and progress east into the overnight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Precipitation associated with the above mentioned cold front will depart to the east on Friday, leaving a mid-level dry-slot overhead for much of the day. Most of Friday will be dry with just an isolated shower during the afternoon. Another piece of the cold front comes through on Friday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible again on Saturday with the upper trough crossing the Great Lakes Region. The impact on temperatures will be minimal with highs still near to above normal behind the front on Saturday. Sunday looks to be the dry day of the week as high pressure builds in behind the front. We will have to watch the progress of energy rounding the ridge for chances of precipitation early next week. For now confidence was not high enough and will continue with a dry forecast.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
A band of showers is moving south to north through the region this evening which will aid in lowering the ceilings over the first few hours of the forecast. A fairly quick transition to MVFR and then IFR ceilings should be expected through the duration of the TAF. A break in the showers likely for the western terminals through morning. Further east, the frequency of the showers is expected to be higher through later tonight into early Tuesday. Leaving thunder out of the forecast for now.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible Tuesday afternoon through this Saturday.

MARINE
Easterly winds are expected to continue through Tuesday on Lake Erie as weak low pressure moves north into the Ohio Valley. Winds may vary from northeasterly to southeasterly at times but will tend to be 15 knots or less with generally good marine condition. This trough will lift north across Lake Erie on Wednesday with winds becoming south to southeasterly. Another stronger low pressure system will track through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday night, lifting a warm front north across Lake Erie followed by a series of cold fronts Friday night through Saturday night. Southwest winds will increase to at least 10-20 knots but could potentially be higher.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.