Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vineyard Haven, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:14PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:37 AM EST (16:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:28PMMoonset 5:52AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 1016 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Mon night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Showers.
Tue night..SW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed and Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will build south of the waters through the weekend. Strong low pressure moves across western new england Mon into Tue. This system will bring the potential for gale to even potentially storm force wind gusts and high seas. Mariners will want to stay tuned to the forecast. Another high pres system building to the south of the waters will result in quieter weather Wed into Thu. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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location: 41.38, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 281509 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1009 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Mainly dry and pleasant weather is on tap for the weekend, but with much more sunshine on Sunday. Strong low pressure lifts through the Mid Atlantic on Monday. This will bring the potential for strong to damaging winds and heavy rain Monday and Monday night. Above normal temperatures early in the week trend seasonably cold midweek, then above normal again late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

10AM UPDATE .

A weak line of showers are moving across western MA/CT and the visible shows behind that line clouds are starting to thin. A slight increase in the POPs to address the few light showers that are about. Otherwise, the forecast remains well on track!

Previous discussion from 325 AM .

A broken deck of strato-cu remains in place early this morning along with some very localized ground fog. While any patchy fog will burnoff quickly after sunrise, model cross sections indicate an abundance of strato-cu will persist for much of the day. While clouds will dominate, we probably will see peeks of sun too. Mid level temps are a few degrees cooler than yesterday, so thinking highs mainly between 50 and 55 with some upper 40s in the high terrain. Westerly winds will mainly be in the 10 to 15 mph range, so all in all not a bad day for late November standards.

The vast majority of the day will be dry, but a modest shortwave/cold pool aloft may trigger a few brief spot showers this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Tonight .

A ridge of high pressure will build to our south tonight. This will allow skies to become mainly clear with light winds; resulting in a good night of radiational cooling. Low temperatures by daybreak should range from the upper 20s to the middle 30s.

Sunday .

Large high pressure to our south will result in sunny skies and a pleasant end to the Holiday Weekend. High temperatures should once again be mainly in the 50 to 55 degree range with some upper 40s in the high terrain. Winds will be rather light, resulting in a rather comfortable afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Highlights

* Strong storm system to impact southern New England later on Monday into early Tuesday. The main concerns is strong to damaging winds and heavy rain.

* Trending cooler mid to late in the week, but seasonable.

Sunday night .

A ridge axis will be in the place over New England initially. The ridge will build offshore to the east of Nova Scotia by early on Monday. Will see a northern stream trough over the Upper Mississippi River Valley dig into the Mid Mississippi River Valley and central Great Lakes. This will begin phasing with a southern stream cutoff lifting from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the TN/OH Valley. High pressure will shift offshore Sunday night, while low pressure deepens as it lifts northeastward over the Southeast.

Dry and quiet weather anticipated across southern New England Sunday night. Will see mid to high clouds moving in as the night progresses. Do not expect strong radiational cooling due to the increasing cloud cover despite the light winds with the high nudging in. Low temperatures will generally be in the 30s, but there will be some low to mid 40 degree readings along the coastal plain.

Monday and Tuesday .

The main focus of the extended is on this period. Phasing between the two streams previously mentioned continues on Monday. Should see the southern stream get absorbed within the northern stream trough on Monday. The result is a large cutoff developing over the OH/TN Valley by late Monday. The cutoff will rotate toward the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic Monday night and remain over the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic on Tuesday. A surface low will continue deepening as it lifts into the Mid Atlantic on Monday. Should see the occluded/cold front lift in on Monday bringing chances of rain. Still some discrepancy in when the front pushes offshore. The ECMWF is much slower than the GFS/CMC/GEFS and several EPS ensemble members. Will be something to keep an eye on as the slower solution would bring much more precipitation to eastern portions of the CWA.

Still strong agreement amongst guidance depicting a strong to damaging wind and heavy rain event. Global models continue to depict a 60-70+ kt low level jet at 850 hPa. Have increased gusts from the NBM guidance toward roughly half of the 850 hPa jet as a starting point mixed with the latest NAM. The NAM shows a much more potent low level jet getting up toward the 70-90 kt range and would not be surprised if this continues to increase in future model runs and as other high res guidance comes in. These wind speeds fall in the 3-4 STD above normal for the V component of the wind. The only potential pitfall is it may be tough for areas to see the strong gusts mixing down as there may be an inversion in place. Hopefully high resolution guidance will give a better picture of things in future forecast updates. Suspect wind headlines will be needed for a good portion of southern New England. Confidence is highest across eastern portions of the CWA.

Heavy rain threat as the front slides through. Also, some models show a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE along with K index values in the upper 20s to mid 30s. So, not out of the question there will be some embedded thunderstorms. Have not added in the latest update, but will likely need to in the future. Any showers or thunderstorms that move through will further enhance the risk of bringing down strong to damaging gusts. Strong southerly flow will advect 1" to 1.5" PWATS which is around 2-4 STD above normal with the moisture plume originating from the Gulf of Mexico.

Still cannot rule out some minor coastal flooding. However, think the risk is lower as astronomical high tides are on the low side. Will still need to keep an eye on especially if stronger winds are expected.

Nudged up high temperatures to the 75th percentile of guidance for Monday given 5-10 degree Celsius 925 hPa air advects in. The result is temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Should not be much of a cool down on Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday through Friday .

Confidence moderate to high on Wednesday and Thursday. The cutoff lifts from the eastern Great Lakes into Quebec while a ridge builds into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. The surface low will lift into Quebec while the high nudges in from the Mid Atlantic. As the system lifts northward will see southwesterly cold air advection bring 0 to -4 degree Celsius 925 hPa air in. The result will be more seasonable temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will generally be in the 40s.

Confidence low late in the week as models are all over the place with the evolution of a cutoff moving in from the center of the CONUS Given the differences this far out. have kept the NBM guidance at this point in time.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today . High confidence.

Localized patchy MVFR to IFR fog lifts this morning as the mixed layer grows and winds pick up. Expect BKN to OVC stratocumulus across the region with ceilings between 4-6 kft, so VFR. Could have a spotty shower or two this afternoon, but confidence not high enough to include in the latest update. WNW winds of 5-10 kts.

Tonight . High Confidence.

VFR with skies clearing as high pressure builds in. W winds between 5-10 kts.

Sunday . High Confidence.

VFR with W winds shifting to the WSW/SW speeds of 5-10kts.

KBOS . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. SHRA, slight chance FZRA.

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Today and tonight . High Confidence. A weak cold front will result in NW wind gusts increasing into the lower 20 knots this afternoon and continue into tonight. We opted to keep conditions just below SCA thresholds with seas in the open waters mainly between 3 and 4 feet.

Sunday . High Confidence. High pressure centered to our south will keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Rain showers.

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/BL NEAR TERM . Frank/BL/Gaucher SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . BL AVIATION . BL MARINE . Frank/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 14 mi38 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 51°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi50 min 53°F 51°F1013.5 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi113 min WNW 1.9 50°F 1014 hPa45°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi50 min N 5.1 G 5.1 50°F 51°F1013.2 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi38 min WNW 8 G 8.9 1014.2 hPa (-0.5)
44090 33 mi41 min 51°F1 ft
CHTM3 36 mi50 min Calm G 1 51°F 50°F1013 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi50 min 50°F 53°F1013.9 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi50 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 1013.6 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi50 min 51°F 46°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi72 min 57°F3 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi50 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 52°F 53°F1013.5 hPa
PRUR1 46 mi50 min 53°F 41°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi113 min WNW 2.9 50°F 1015 hPa42°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi50 min NNW 1 G 4.1 54°F 1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA7 mi45 minN 310.00 miOvercast53°F41°F64%1013.2 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA19 mi53 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F35°F58%1013.5 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA24 mi45 minN 610.00 miOvercast52°F42°F69%1013.1 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi42 minN 010.00 miOvercast52°F42°F69%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMVY

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW5W4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN3NW4N3N5N3N4N3N3N4N3Calm3N3
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W6W7W6W4CalmSW3W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW5
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Tide / Current Tables for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Edgartown
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:48 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:39 AM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:21 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:08 PM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.70.30.20.30.60.91.31.7221.81.40.80.30.10.10.30.60.91.41.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:10 AM EST     0.14 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     3.55 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:07 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:31 AM EST     -3.43 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:59 PM EST     3.57 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:32 PM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:53 PM EST     -3.40 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.1-2.6-2-0.822.93.53.52.91.1-2.5-3.3-3.4-2.9-2.3-1.41.52.63.33.63.32.1-1.9-3.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.