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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 348 Am Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Today..South winds less than 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 67 degrees, off cleveland 69 degrees, and off erie 69 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 031822 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 222 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry and seasonably warm weather is expected through most of the day Thursday under the influence of high pressure. A strong upper level low will bring cooler air and periods of rain to the region late Thursday night through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
A strong ridge over the Ohio River Valley will maintain the streak of seasonably warm, dry weather for the forecast region.
Expect bountiful amounts of sunshine today, light easterly wind, and temperature rising 10 to 15 degrees above the daily average.

Little change in the overall synoptic state is expected heading into the overnight period. The result will be overnight low temperature ending around 5 degrees above the daily average.
Strong radiational cooling may foster patchy fog favoring river valleys, but a drier near-surface layer should limit expansion outside of these locations.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday will feature the initiation of a pattern change as an upper level trough begins deepening across the central plains and edges the ridge to the east coast. The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain under the influence of high pressure that shifted east, with weak southerly flow helping to maintain 10-15 degree above normal daytime high temperatures.

The slow intrustion of high clouds amid moist advection ahead of the trough should mitigate nocturnal fog development into Thursday morning, though a few valleys near the Laurel Highlands may still see patchy development. High clouds will continue to spread eastward through the day Thursday, though southerly flow will maintain well above average daytime temperatures. Lack of surface forcing and displacement of jet dynamics west should preclude precipitation across the region much of the day.
However, there remains low probability for late afternoon convective initiation across far eastern zones as the upper jet impinges the region.

Precipitation chances are expected to more dramatically increase and slowly progress eastward Thursday night coincident with intial shortwave passage ahead of the main trough axis. This precipitation will be primiarly driven by upper-dynamics as the surface cold front will remain farther displaced west. Due to this, overnight temperature should remain elevated save for rain-cooled locales in eastern Ohio.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Friday into the weekend is expected to see the deepening of the incoming upper trough over the Great Lakes region, with periodic shortwaves rounding its base. This pattern favors a prolonged period of scattered rain shower chances, seasonably cool temperature, and periods of gusty winds.

The surface cold front is favored to cross Friday and aided by shortwave movement. The combo should foster showers and low probability thunderstorms ahead of the boundary as it travereses east through the day. An upper level dry slot should quickly follow this feature and may promote a brief dry spell that currently is not captured in PoP values. Deep mixing given abundant cloud cover is unlikely to occur ahead of the boundary, which should limit severe threat and keep stronger winds aloft.
Post-frontal passage, steepening lapse rates and deeper mixing offer potential for gusty wind around 30 mph (probability of 40 mph remains generally below 20 percent and limited to elevation peaks).

Periodic showers and breezy afternoon winds are likely to continue Saturday into early next week as the upper low remains overhead. Areal coverage of precipitation varies and will be dependent on north-south position of trough as well as wind angles (which could activate lake-enhanced showers). As 850mb temps drop below 0 degrees celsius and 700mb below 10 degrees celsius Saturday night into Sunday, there is a low probability (less than 20 percent chance) for a precipitation type change over in the highest terrain, assuming precipitation is even present during that period. If even snow does occur, temperature is still marginal enough to likely preclude any accumulation.

Upper level pattern evolution for early next week shows greater variation, so range of potential outcomes is highest then; mean values do suggest continued northwest flow over the region after the trough axis that will create mainly lake enhanced showers over northwest PA and continue seasonably cool temperature.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR is expected today with sparsely scattered fair weather cumulus. This will dissipate readily after sunset.

Patchy valley fog is expected to continue tonight. Little has changed over the last 24 hours. Further, the forecast relied more heavily on persistence and climatology. Given dry low levels, restrictions will be mostly confined to valley ports.
Temporary dense fog was only mentioned at HLG, FKL, and DUJ for now.

Vis restrictions will lift readily to VFR area-wide into the day tomorrow with mixing.

OUTLOOK
Outside of early morning river valley fog, VFR is expected through Thursday under a large area of high pressure.
Restrictions are likely with rain late Thursday night through Saturday with the approach and passage of a cold front, and with a subsequent crossing upper low and cold advection.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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