Orangeville, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orangeville, OH

June 14, 2024 4:57 PM EDT (20:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM
Moonrise 12:45 PM   Moonset 12:43 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 333 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees, off cleveland 67 degrees, and off erie 68 degrees.

LEZ100
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orangeville, OH
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 141939 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 339 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather will persist today in storms along a cold front. There is high confidence Sunday will be the start of a particularly dangerous, historic, long- duration heat wave for western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, and eastern Ohio.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- A 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms are possible today.
- Temperatures will remain near normal.
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3:45pm Update:

Initial convection in eastern Ohio has become more contaminated as it has merged into a line, which has locally raised flooding concerns and lowered severe concerns for now. That being said, severe still cannot be ruled out given the environment and may be more likely if storms start moving right. This will be monitored over the coming hours. Otherwise, the front is starting to show up on radar moving into the watch area now.
This will bring the final chance of severe as it progresses and storms continue and/or initiate.

2:35pm Update:

With the 18Z sounding, we are noticing that the MLCAPE is sitting around 1000 J/kg with moist adiabatic profiles immediately above, with some mid level dry adiabatic profiles from 750mb to 600mb. There is also upper dry air with a cap, but those temperature are still below parcel temperatures. This has indicated that storms are capable of tapping into dry air aloft, which has increased confidence of downburst potential and hail growth. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued accordingly.

Previous Discussion

We have seen some pre-frontal development in storms that initiated overnight in a pre-frontal trough. We have already seen these storms intensify to near-severe criteria. These will severe as a litmus test for future development. These storms have developed in an environment with around 35-40kts of effective shear and around 500 J/kg MLCAPE.

As the pre-frontal trough and cold front drift south, the environment will only get more favorable, with shear forecast to get as high as 40kts to 50kts and SBCAPE as high as 1500-2500 J/kg. Supercell composites are as high as 1-2. This is also in an area which is showing progressive clearing, which will allow the low-levels to destabilize. DCAPE is now modeled as high at 800-1100 J/kg in the same area. This is a notably higher than the prior forecast, which may indicate increasing severe potential in in southeast Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

For these reasons, the SPC has decided to upgrade to a 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather today. The strong shear and mid-level dry air will contribute to both wind and hail threats in the area. Hail threats will be locally higher in storms should any supercells develop. The 12Z sounding also had 1.3" PWATS, which is close to the 90th percentile, meaning training storms contribute to localized flash flooding.

Cooler and drier air will arrive overnight behind the cold front with a drop in dew points. Lows will drop a few degrees below normal, and patchy river valley fog is possible with clearing.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather Saturday and Sunday.
- Near normal temperatures Saturday with a jump to 5-10 degrees above normal on Sunday.
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Heights rise into Saturday as upper ridging builds and surface high pressure slides in to the north. Temps won't rebound much in northerly flow in the wake of the boundary and dew points will likely mix out some in the afternoon with a dry boundary layer providing a pretty comfortable day.

Upper ridging begins to build stronger making a run at 588-590dm by Sunday to kick off the first day of increasingly hot conditions.
Surface high pressure establishes off to our east and southwest flow on the west side of the 850 mb ridge axis will induce warm advection with ensemble 850 temps up to 15-17C. This will support widespread upper 80s with even a 40-70% chance of 90F+ for Pittsburgh south and west.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in a dangerous heat wave setting up early next week with major heat impacts possible.
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Guidance has been consistent that a potentially-historic ridge will continue to strengthen across much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. WPC ensemble clusters are highly consistent through Tuesday, indicating high confidence in the temperature forecast. Near-record breaking heat will build in to start off next week.

Significant heat is looking increasingly likely with this anomalously strong ridge from Monday and beyond when major to extreme heat risk is likely. NBM probabilities for high temperatures reaching 95+ degrees continue to go up, and are now widespread 60-90% across the area. These higher probabilities are especially prevalent in lower elevation areas (e.g., river valleys) and urban centers, which tend to be warmer than surrounding areas. In addition, dewpoints are currently forecast to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s, which would result in high enough humidity levels to support heat indices climbing to, and potentially exceeding, 100 degrees. If dew points do hold toward the lower end of that spectrum, we may be able to make a run at 100 degree air temperatures Monday and beyond (last time at PIT was 7/15/95); NBM probabilities for that threshold are now up to 60% on Tuesday with ~50% chance for the remainder of the week. Only acting to exacerbate the prolonged heat effects will be a 60-80% chance of low temperatures greater than 70 degrees through the end of the week. Heat impacts will need to be closely monitored and headlines may need to be considered.

Three out of four clusters maintain at least a 594dm ridge through June 22nd with the one exception being a lower probability solution than the others. Return intervals of these heights dating back to 1979 are just about out of the climatological range. CPC suggests that excessive heat may last through June 24th, indicating the potential for a long-duration excessive heat threat. The last comparable, long-duration heat event was from June 1994.

Impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and potential power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Gather food, water and medication now. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare. Strongly consider rescheduling outdoor events. Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The cold front is working its way towards the I-80 corridor.
FKL and DUJ are more than likely done with convection for today, and will remain VFR through the TAF period (save for perhaps patchy valley fog towards morning). To the south, thunderstorms on at least a scattered basis are expected as the front sink south, exiting the area during the early evening. Have used 2-3 hour TEMPO groups to try to time the window of highest opportunity for each terminal to experience a storm. Any storm will be capable of brief IFR to LIFR visibility, variable wind gusts to 40 knots, and cloud-to-ground lightning. confidence in this level of impact at any one TAF site is quite low and thus not mentioned in the TAFs.

In the wake of the front, winds shift to northwesterly and skies begin to clear again as drier air moves into the region.
VFR conditions are then expected for the rest of the forecast period, although patchy valley fog may be a concern late tonight.


Outlook
Largely VFR conditions are then forecast Saturday through Wednesday as a strong ridging pattern develops over the region.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45208 41 mi38 minNNW 5.8G5.8 71°F 71°F1 ft29.9260°F
ASBO1 41 mi58 minNW 2.9G4.1
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 42 mi58 minW 4.1G5.1
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 43 mi88 minNNW 2.9G4.1


Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KYNG YOUNGSTOWNWARREN RGNL,OH 14 sm66 minN 1010 smPartly Cloudy82°F55°F40%29.93
KGKJ PORT MEADVILLE,PA 22 sm64 minNNW 08G1510 smClear81°F52°F37%29.95
KUCP NEW CASTLE MUNI,PA 24 sm61 minN 0910 smA Few Clouds81°F61°F51%29.92
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Wind History graph: YNG
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Pittsburgh, PA,




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