Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orangeville, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Rain chances increase Wednesday.

2) Rain changes to snow late Wednesday into Wednesday evening, followed by snow showers and much colder temperatures Thursday.

3) Colder than average temperatures continue into next week, with periodic snow chances.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rain chances will increase overnight with increasing moisture and ascent in southwesterly flow ahead an approaching front.
Model soundings and 850 mb temperatures indicate the rain could be mixed with snow across the Laurel Highlands and the higher terrain areas of WV, and areas north of I-80.

Rain coverage will increase over the course of the morning, becoming widespread by the afternoon as the cold front tracks east across the Upper Ohio Valley region, and an upper trough deepens just to our west across MI and IN. The front is progged to cross the forecast area late morning and through the afternoon, east of the ridges by evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Cold advection behind the front and boundary layer flow shifting to the NW should result in lake and terrain enhancement overnight Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture in the dendritic growth zone becomes less than optimal rather quickly for efficient snowfall, though a quick accumulation of snow, reduced visibility, and temperatures in the 20s could result in travel hazards in any heavier snow shower or band that develops.
It still appears the most likely area to see advisory level snow would be across the higher terrain areas of WV and PA, where current probabilities of 3 inches of snow or more are around 50%. Areas north of I 80 could also approach these accumulations, but this would be more localized and dependent on where snow bands set up. For the rest of the area, generally expecting around an inch or two of accumulation. Latest ensembles show a 30-50% chance and 10-20% chance of an inch and two inches respectively in the lowlands. Locally higher amounts will be possible under any snow bands.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Model ensembles indicate a longwave trough will persist across much of the eastern CONUS into early next week. Individual shortwaves rotating through the trough will keep periodic snow chances and cold temperatures in the forecast for much of the period. The coldest temperatures are expected Sunday into the middle of next week as 850 mb temperatures drop.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...

1) VFR through tonight, then ceilings fall through MVFR into the IFR range Wednesday.

2) Gusty SW wind this evening, diminishing somewhat around midnight.

3) Rain expected tomorrow with a transition to snow during Wednesday afternoon/evening. Short time period of rain/snow mix in between.
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VFR conditions continue through the night thanks to high pressure and dry low-level air. Thanks to a decent surface pressure gradient and a crossing low-level jet, wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots out of the southwest will continue through around midnight, when a shallow surface-based inversion may develop and cut off wind gusts, although sustained wind of around 10 knots should remain.

Slowly falling ceilings after 06Z are progged to reach MVFR levels around sunrise on Thursday. Fairly rapid moistening of the low levels will continue to lower cloud heights. IFR ceilings are likely by around midday with 60-80 percent probability at all TAF sites per the HRRR.

Spotty rain shows up around sunrise as well, with coverage slowly increasing in lock-step with the moisture increase. The combination of rain and patchy fog may bring IFR visibility along with the ceilings by 18Z. A cold frontal passage during the afternoon begins a change from rain to snow during the afternoon, which will complete areawide by the end of the TAF period with continued IFR conditions. A wind shift to northwest with FROPA will also return wind gusts to 20 knots.

Outlook...
Restrictions are likely to continue into Thursday morning, when lake-effect and upslope snow showers become more likely. A brief lull Thursday night may be followed by further rounds of restrictions in snow showers for Friday and into the weekend.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
then MVFR ceilings develop late night/early tomorrow morning.