Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 2:31 PM   Moonset 4:03 AM

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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 537 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers and drizzle early this evening. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers, especially after midnight. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Sun - W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 537 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak wave of low pressure south of long island will drift southeast and farther out to sea as high pressure noses down from eastern new england and the canadian maritimes. The high will weaken on Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will move through late Friday night into early Saturday, followed by a dry secondary cold frontal passage late day Saturday or Saturday evening. High pressure will then follow from Saturday night into early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 182135 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 535 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak wave of low pressure south of Long Island will drift southeast and farther out to sea as high pressure noses down from eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. The high will weaken on Friday as a cold front approaches from the west.
The front will move through late Friday night into early Saturday, followed by a dry secondary cold frontal passage late day Saturday or Saturday evening. High pressure will then follow from Saturday night into early next week. A weak frontal system will impact the region mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Only minor tweaks with this update, mainly to refine the time of drizzle/light showers which are continuing to exit eastern portions of area and will be gone within the next several hours.

Somewhat blocky pattern noted, with a series of omega blocks stretching from the NE Pacific all the way to wrn Europe, but with enough of a zonal jet across the Pacific and CONUS to the south to keep things somewhat progressive. A weak shortwave trough riding through an associated upper ridge over the Northeast will move east by this evening and bring an end to showers/drizzle mostly across Long Island and S CT, with some leftover patchy fog in spots. Skies will remain cloudy in the wake of this wave as moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion associated with the upper ridge. Low temps tonight per MOS guidance blend should be in the upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast and in the metro area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
The sfc high will hang in early Fri morning, then slowly weaken and move east in the late morning and afternoon, with an onshore SE-S flow developing in the afternoon. A cold front begins to approach late Fri afternoon and should move across Fri night with showers, especially inland during the first half of Fri night (likely PoP), then across Long Island and S CT later Fri night (likely/cat PoP) as better low level thermal and moisture advection develops along the coast.

After some lingering AM showers mainly across ern Long Island and SE CT in the morning, dry conditions expected for Sat, with some partial sunshine developing. Downslope gusty W-NW flow and deep mixing to 750 mb late in the afternoon should allow temps to rise into the 60s throughout, possibly approaching 70 in urban NE NJ if not a little warmer just ahead of an approaching dry cold front late in the day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will continue to build into the region through the second half of the weekend and remain in control of the weather through Tuesday with a zonal pattern and weak troughing pattern aloft.

Cold air advection will lead to cooler temps Saturday night into Sunday. Saturday night lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, followed by highs on Sunday in the upper 50s/lower 60s. This looks to warm up thereafter with highs mostly into the 60s on Monday and Tuesday. Sunny skies are expected for much of Monday and Tuesday aided by high pressure.

A 500 mb trough shifts through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated weak surface low and cold front as it moves into NE Canada Wednesday into Thursday. Rain chances increase on Wednesday as this system moves across. Drier weather returns for Thursday. Temperatures fall back to a degree or two below normal behind the cold front on Thursday.

AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak low pressure slowly moves southeast of the terminals through this evening. High pressure builds in tonight through Friday.

Conditions will continue to improve to MVFR through this evening. There will also be some lingering drizzle and a few showers out east at times through 23Z. Improvement to VFR is then likely first across southern CT early this evening, and then the rest of the terminals overnight. Amendments are likely timing of the improving flight categories into tonight.

ENE-NE winds 10-15 kt with some lingering gusts 20-25 kt. Gusts should end by 23Z. NE winds under 10 kt are expected overnight.
Winds then shift to the E Friday morning and then SE Friday afternoon, becoming 10-15 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of improving flight categories may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon and night: VFR early, then MVFR or lower possible in the evening and overnight with showers possible.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers ending in the early morning, becoming VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20 kt possible late.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt possible near the coast in the afternoon/evening.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA cond persist on most waters attm, with E-NE winds gusting to 25-30 kt (highest on the ocean) and ocean seas up to 9 ft.
Gusts over 25 kt should diminish on the non ocean waters before sunset, but should take until closer to midnight on the ocean.
Ocean seas over 5 ft should however linger into daytime Fri and possibly Fri night or early Sat morning.

High pressure should then keep conditions at sub-advisory levels through at least Tue night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels on Wed with the next low pressure and associated cold front to approach.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected attm.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Hadlyme
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Thu -- 02:52 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:00 AM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:19 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:33 PM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hadlyme, Connecticut, Tide feet

The Race
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Thu -- 02:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:32 AM EDT     1.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:38 AM EDT     -2.38 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:03 PM EDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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